Thom Hartmann predicts: Palin gone within the next 24 hrs?

[Sebastian Doyle]

Thom says "If I were a betting man, which I'm not" Sarah will remove herself from the ticket, citing family reasons. Obviously nobody would question that, given the pregnant daughter and the baby with Downs Syndrome.

He thinks Romney will then be the VP.

Seems a likely scenario all around.

[kwolf68]

1. She may

Lets try this statement

"Due to the extraordinary abuse the Democratic Party has levied against me, my family, and my innocent daughter I have chosen not to accept Senator McCain's request that I be his Vice Presidential candidate."

Palin takes one for the team, another flat earther (this one smarter) is brought in to keep the taliban on the "R" category and the indies vote for McCain out of pity.

[featherman]

2. Problem: it's a matter of dogma among many fundie churches that Mormons are heretics

and not Christians at all

[Mike Daniels]

25. If Lieberman was too "liberal" for most conservatives, Romney was the heretic

I have a feeling that it wasn't Romney's wealth that kept him from being selected. The fact that McCain went with Palin over Romney (who was probably the likliest pick up till Friday) is more a reflection that Romney may not pull the fundy vote because of his religion.

I could be wrong but it helps explain why McCain went with the most fundy-leaning candidate over someone who had significantly more experience in all areas of life that fall into governing a city, state, company, etc.

[kwolf68]

26. Im not saying Romney...

And it definately won't be Lieberman, I never worried about that in a million years... I don't know who it would be. Maybe they could drag Rick Sanitarium out to run. Afterall, he's available.

[Sebastian Doyle]

30. But those same fundie churches also believe that women should be submissive to male authority

How could they support a woman for VP (on a ticket with an old man not in the best of health)

[Oak2004]

37. It won't work that way

The teen pregnancy, the "scandal" they'd like everyone to focus on, is just a tiny bit of the far more substantial scandals here. And the biggest scandal, the one that McCain can never shake, is the "what was he thinking??!?" scandal -- that he had such piss-poor judgement he'd put her on the ticket without vetting her, without even meeting her more than once, briefly.

McCain will always be saddled with Sarah Palin, extremist, power-abuser, liar, and secessionist, no matter who replaces her.

[gateley]

3. I heard that. If this happened and Romney got the nod, goodbye to

the fundies that Sarah attracted.

[Virginia Dare]

13. Democrats and most independents are running screaming from her..

so they're definitely in a pickle. I've said all along that McCain really didn't have many good options, but I think he actually went with the worst one.

[zulchzulu]

4. They have a small window to jettison Failin' Palin

She is supposed to speak Wednesday night. I'm sure many of those in the RNC Batcave want her ass thrown under the Bus.

[Erin Elizabeth]

23. They bumped her back to Thursday night

which is also the opening of the NFL season, LOL.

[quaker bill]

47. No one of stature

will sign up for second choice. It is political suicide and I just don't see any of them as that devoted to a clearly losing cause.

[saltpoint]

5. I think it's a real good chance, and Hartmann's voice lends serious

authority to the idea.

I like his interviews a lot.

[RiverStone]

6. Did Thom think this was a set-up from the get go? n/t

[Bonn1997]

18. A set-up?

Why do you think that? No candidate in the history of American politics has deemed it beneficial to make a fool of himself by setting up something like this before.

[paparush]

7. Helllooooooooooo JEB!!!!

[tekisui]

11. Goodbye, mcpow.

[terrya]

15. That would be the ultimate humiliation for McCain.

[phleshdef]

27. Heh, impossible. No way will McCain allow his own bumper stickers to say "McCain/Bush 08"

[GDoyle]

38. What difference would it make?

No one would have them anyways!

[marylanddem]

8. Yup!

[saltpoint]

9. Agree that Romney will be a consideration well high up on the list

of possible replacements, but McCain's team could surprise us.

They may be forced to beg Kay Bailey Hutchison to "save them" and divert her attention from the Texas Governor's mansion to the immediate crisis on the ticket.

They may go to an old party stalwart like Haley Barbour, even if they have to drag him out of a pigsty to do it.

Or even Pawlenty, since he's in town.

[crazylikafox]

33. Would Romney actually accept at this point?

If Palin blows up like we think she will, why would any of the top GOP picks want to align themselves with McClueless? He's going down. Better to wait for 2012 & try again for the top spot.

[saltpoint]

36. Good question. Romney is nothing if not an ego on two legs.

If anybody would take it, I suppose it would be ol' Willard.

At this point, though, the GOP ticket is looking like a toxic zone better off stayed away from.

[TornadoTN]

10. If McCain jettisons Palin, it will be seen as a miserable failure of his leadership

I don't think they will be willing to accept that. Anyone remember Eagleton?

If he throws her off the "Straight Talk" bus, it will effectively seal the end of his Presidential bid. It's a ready-made campaign ad for Obama if he does (and it still should be hammered home). I just don't see throwing her away as being anything other than detrimental to his campaign in every way imaginable.

[KansDem]

12. This will taint InSane's "straight talk" and "maverick" facades...

It'll show him to be weak and indecisive, and unable to make the right choices.

[holiday]

14. they will blame the liberals

and the poor mother will tearfully say she is forced to decline the vp slot because mean ole liberals hurt her families feelings

[skooooo]

24. They're going to do that anyway..

...so who cares..?

[book_worm]

16. I wouldn't put too much stock in what he says. I don't think she will.

but I know as much as he does.

[theboss]

17. No way; The Religious Right would lynch McCain at the convention if he did this

Even if McCain wanted to switch, he couldn't at this point.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

19. Calamity Jane will ride off into the sunset

If that happens, it will drive a stake into the heart of the Creepublican Party.

[my3boyz]

20. I hope he is wrong! She does not scare me but Romney does because of Michigan. nt

[depakid]

21. Nope. She's a ruthless fundie who puts personal ambition above everything

(who probably has delusions of grandeur) and McCain is stubbornly loyal to the point of dysfunction.

Moreover, the delegates WANT this dominionist stalking horse on the ballot.

And the Obama campaign has already shown it doesn't know how to handle her.

[trashcanistanista]

22. I am OK with a Romney trade, but it would cost McCain

dearly with the fundies. Romney just isn't christian enough. He will not recover from it. I think he will keep her. Maybe they plan on keeping her and getting rid of McCain and playing him for the fool, it wouldn't be the first time. McCAin can bow out with the unexpected illness as easily as she could with the family issues.

[Dawgs]

28. If McCain picks Romney he will lose his base. He'll have to pick Huckabee.

Doesn't matter though, because he will look like a fool for picking Palin without vetting her.

[Hamlette]

29. Intrade's only at 14% chance she'll drop before election

but that is up 11 since yesterday

[trashcanistanista]

31. Ok, which would be the winningest route:

Romney/Palin or McCain/ Huckabee?

[treehuggnlibrul]

32. What about the $10 mil the overjoyed relig right has given...

...since the Palin announcement?

Thom is one of my favorite progressive talk show hosts, and he's often right.

But I don't know... I just can't see her pulling out when she's bringing money in and enthusing the fundamentalists.

[leftynyc]

34. Not going to happen

At least now when he loses, he'll have someone else to blame. Palin will be on the ticket in November. Republicans never admit mistakes.

[Rambis]

35. agree to embarrassed to admit failure

:toast:

[Nickster]

39. Makes a lot of sense. Especially if Palin gives the stamp of approval so the fundies don't go nuts.

She would need to come out strongly saying that McCain's pick is a-ok and she really would love to remain, but her family is most important.

[onenote]

40. its probably a good thing Thom isn't a betting man

Is it possible she'll step down? Sure. Is it likely? No. Will it happen in the next 24 hours? If I was a betting man (and sometimes I am), I'd bet heavily against her stepping down during the convention.

[Sebastian Doyle]

41. But if they had to switch out the ticket later, say in October

Wouldn't that be automatic political suicide?

Not that it would bother me in the least, but the Republicans couldn't be that dumb.

[onenote]

42. If they do it at all, and I don't know that they will, it won't be until next week

They aren't going to do it during the convention. Period.

[Awsi Dooger]

46. You can say that about virtually everyone on progressive sites

Smart people but plagued by obsession with recency, making absurd over reactive projections based on that fixation with recent news.

This is what busts me up: There will be all type of predictions and threads like this, no clue regarding probability, then when normalcy rules and Palin stays in the game through the election, it's like none of the knucklehead projections ever happened. But we'll be treated with the "I knew it all along" blather on other topics.

[cameozalaznick]

43. Problem is, the fundies all just love her...

McCain had unprecedented fund raising numbers after she came aboard. Plus, her whackadoodle Jerry Springeresque, real desperate housewives of the frozen tundra family is just such a hoot. I kinda hope she sticks around a little longer. But not long enough to become like, respected or anything.

[Justice]

44. Does Romney have speaking slot at convention?

[saltpoint]

45. It seemed unlikely at first that McCain would even consider a swap of

Palin for someone else, but as the day drag on, I wonder if the survival instinct doesn't kick in, with McCain realizing that Palin brings him no benefits and considerable risk.

In that scenario, it is arranged for her to step aside and he names someone else.

I agree with zulchzulu that the window for this maneuver is a narrow one.

[Heather MC]

48. Gosh I hope he is wrong, I haven't got my McCain Palin 08 t-shirt in the mail yet

this is going to be soooo humilating for me
what about meeee