THE BOUNCE --->> It cannot be denied!

[phrigndumass]

:bounce: 9/2 Real Clear Politics - Obama +6.4
:bounce: 9/2 Gallup Daily Tracking - Obama +8 (and 50%!)
:bounce: 9/2 Rasmussen Daily Tracking - Obama +6 (and 51%!)
:bounce: 8/31 CBS News - Obama +8
:bounce: 8/31 USA Today/Gallup - Obama +7 (and 50%!)
:bounce: 8/31 Diageo/Hotline - Obama +9

:spray: 8/31 CNN - Obama +1 :rofl:

The state polls are sure to follow! :thumbsup:

[C_U_L8R]

1. Bounce ! Roll ! Skate !

GOBAMA !

[Cha]

2. mccain's an idiot.. The US has already been there done

that.

[bushisanidiot]

3. yep, that's a bounce!

:)

[FrenchieCat]

4. I see it!

:bounce:

[Upton]

5. Great stuff!

[nichomachus]

6. Meanwhile, the goopers are holding a wake in Mpls.

Can't wait to see what the bounce is from that.

[vaberella]

7. This like the price of gold going up. n/t

[DCBob]

8. I think it is more of a Palin dip.

There are so many scandals on-going I can keep count. The media is in a feeding frenzy. Plus the related story of McCain's pathetic attempt to vet her. It has been a bad 3 days for the McCain campaign and I am not sure the convention is going to help them much unless Palin can pull off a speech of a lifetime.

[Virginia Dare]

41. No, that comes next week when the tabloids hit the stands..n/t

[grantcart]

9. more like a lift off

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Polls taken between the two conventions are meaningless

That should be obvious. It would be like polling a jury on a 50/50ish hotly contested case after one side has given a closing statement, but before the other.

McCain will get a bump. Typically the second convention provides a greater bounce than the first convention. See 2000 and 2004 for examples. But with Gustav throwing off their convention and providing an alternate major story, I'm confident Obama will retain the lead next week.

[phrigndumass]

12. Is this something that the traders take lightly?

I'm curious. It's true that a bounce is usually short-lived, but could the bounce provide good sell-opportunities on Intrade?

:hi:

[Kukesa]

11. Kick! n/t

[knixphan]

13. Rock, skate, roll, bounce, KICK!

:woohoo:

[Coexist]

14. Amen!

[Zero Division]

15. CNN should be raked over the coals for that whopper.

[phrigndumass]

16. Exactly! The story should be: "How could CNN get it so wrong?"

It might expose some of their underlying methodology, lol! :thumbsup:

[ThatsMyBarack]

17. "Sunday, Monday, Happy Days..."

By the way,....:patriot:

[tekisui]

18. I do believe this bounce will keep bouncing until Obama reaches 300+

Electrol VOtes on November 4th!!!

knr~

[Undercurrent]

19. Yes!

[BensMom]

20. Yes sir reeee! Kick

[PerfectSage]

21. Another bounce Obama's back to 300+ EV's on 538.com

:bounce:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

A lot of good national polls for Big O today

[JeffR]

22. Kicked, recommeded and savored!

:woohoo:

[AtomicKitten]

23. Sweeeeeeeeeet.

K&R

[jab105]

24. I hope that when CNN's next poll comes out, they will fall over themselves...

saying what a HUGE bounce Obama got...

If the poll is an outlier, then it will fall into sync with the others soon enough...let's see if they bring that up...

[Willo]

25. I like it! I like it!

Go O and Joe!

[MiniMe]

26. Now the talking point is that it wasn't that big

:eyes:

[Schema Thing]

27. If it's even this good, it may really have been 15% had they not thrown Palin

out to steal the news cycle on Friday and the Weekend. In that respect, even bad news is better for McCain short term, because Obama and Democrats had just pulled off a perfect convention and gotten 42 million viewers at it's crescendo.

[scheming daemons]

28. By my count: 302 to 236..... A new day for America

[Major Hogwash]

29. Considering 38 million people watched Obama speak last Thursday night, I'm not surprised

that CNN lied about Obama getting a bounce from the convention.

One thing is for sure, McCain won't get a bounce from the RNC Convention - more of a depression!!!!

[phrigndumass]

30. And when a depression grows, it becomes a hurricane :)

:hi:

[Major Hogwash]

48. They're wishing that Gustav would have been a bigger storm and lasted longer.

It would have kept the focus off of their train wreck of a convention.

[phrigndumass]

31. Good night bounce

:bounce:

[fight4my3sons]

32. Bounce! Bounce! Bounce!

Wheee!

Fun stuff :)

:hi:

[moondust]

33. Two days ago the CNN home page

had this headline link second from the top of their list of stories: No convention bounce for Obama.

They couldn't wait to tell the world.

[myrna minx]

34. OK, this news deserves a celebration.

How about champagne, roses and dark decadent chocolate. *click* phrig. Thank you so much for all that you do. :loveya: I'm coming by tomorrow with some swatches to redecorate. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

35. I hear purple is making a comeback :)

... so I spray-painted the sofa. We may need to touch it up a bit. We can enjoy the champagne and chocolate on the sofa once the paint dries!

:loveya:

[myrna minx]

38. I love it, dahrling.

:loveya:

[regnaD kciN]

36. Live by the tracking polls, die by the tracking polls....

Saturday was a very good polling day for Obama, and it falls out of the polls today. In the case of Gallup, Obama had a fair Sunday and a good Monday, so he'll need about a ten-point advantage in yesterday's polling just to maintain his lead there. Most likely he'll drop back a bit.

And remember that, because of the reduced schedule on Gustav Monday, the soonest any G.O.P. convention bounce will start showing up is in the polling taken later today, which results will be released tomorrow (Thursday). I'd look for McCain to make major inroads on Obama's lead from Thursday through Saturday.

Still, the trendlines look good. While I expect at least one tracking poll taken between now and a week from now will show McCain ahead, it now looks as if, once both convention bounces subside, we have a good chance for a narrow lead, whereas I previously thought it would be a dead heat. And, if the unthinkable occurs, and Sarah Palin can't manage to read an expert-written speech from a teleprompter in front of a crowd of the most partisan Republicans without falling flat on her face, the Repugs may come out of this convention with a negative bounce.

But remember, in any event, the mantra from the Obama campaign -- tracking polls don't matter, it's the state polls that are important.

[phrigndumass]

37. It's a good mantra :)

... and the state polls began an upswing before the hiatus. Below is the tracking graph for all the state polls in their swing states. :hi:

[regnaD kciN]

47. I notice that Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com...

...is now predicting that this weekend's tracking polls should show a result of anywhere between McCain up by one to Obama up by three -- any less for McCain, and "the Republicans are in real trouble."

[a kennedy]

39. how was Kerry/Edwards doing at this point in the election last time??

not to sound like a downer, just curious??? Thanks

[phrigndumass]

44. Here ya go ...

Kerry was behind Bush 252 electoral votes to 270 electoral votes, with 16 tied (Colorado and Iowa).

:hi:

[a kennedy]

45. This is just what I was looking for thank you so much.

:pals: :patriot:

[barack the house]

40. I with Bob kincaid now they are down you keep on kicking. Figuratively, don't stop now.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

42. kiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiicked and reccccccccccccccccccccc'd and thanks, phrig!

[me b zola]

43. !

:bounce:

[JuniperLea]

46. The more we hear from McCain and Palin...

The higher the bounce will be!

Keep up the yaking!