Intrade: Huge surge for McCain. Drinking kool-aid?

[GoesTo11]

McCain up to 42, Obama down to 58.5 (these correspond to probabilities of winning, if you believe the market theory).
Basically better than he was before Obama picked Biden and had that great Democratic convention, and McCain picked the National Enquirer scandal queen and held hurricane hatefest.

I'm not too worried. It seems to me everything Obama has been doing has been building for long term success - picking a strong, capable, and surprise proof VP, uniting the party, establishing his credibility as a leader, and reaching out with a positive convention that still held the other side accountable. McCain on the other had has taken the opposite approach, picking a gimmick for VP with all sorts of risks, playing for sympathy, and holding a convention that sounds good but lays no case at all for the presidency and will leave a lot of people with a general bad vibe about the Republicans once the words of the day subside.

Predict McCain tops 43 tomorrow, and that is his high water mark. Down to 35 by the debates, high 20s after the debates, low 20s by election day and in the toilet by the end.

[scheming daemons]

1. Going from 39 to 42 is not "Huge"....... sheesh

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Intrade is overrated. It meant something before everyone and their sister knew about it

Now you have a bunch of fisher price Carvilles digesting talking points.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Who gives a fuck?

[Scooter24]

4. The same people who said Pawlenty was the VP candidate?

[4_Legs_Good]

5. I've watched them bounce around

It's speculation. But you'll note that McSame stays right around 40 and Obama stays right around 60.

I'll take 60-40.

David

[GoesTo11]

9. If I thought these were real probabilities, 60 would be too low for comfort

But I think the idea of probability markets is turning out to be pretty flawed. People in the business seem to be acting as if it's almost a done deal for Obama. For example, Romney didn't give a speech promoting McCain, he gave a speech promoting Romney.

[Joanne98]

6. Like book sales. "bulk betting"

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Several days ago I mentioned the theory from the sharpest guy I know here in Las Vegas

My friend said he was certain Palin would be great at the convention and he hoped the convention would push the betting odds to 55/45, down from 60/40. He said at that point he would pounce on Obama at 55.

I think that's an excellent strategy but I'm not sure it will plummet to 55/45. That might require very favorable polls for McCain coming out of the convention, certainly possible.

I'll play Obama at 55 myself. IMO, true odds are roughly 70/30 based on situational advantage, so 15% below that would be playable.

[Neshanic]

8. You sound concerned. Noted.

[GoesTo11]

10. Not concerned, more puzzled. Confident about the real game.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. No move on Intrade, still 60/40 Obama

If it dipped earlier, someone was willing to swoop up Obama contracts and bump it up.

There appears to be an Obama "buy" price at below 60 for many sharp speculators. I may have to get involved if it doesn't look likely to dip further.

But you never want to tie up cash for too long. That's essentially part of the vigorish, the lost opportunity to otherwise invest the money.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

12. RCP has real time Intrade at Obama 60.1 - 39.9.

1:43 am Pacific Thurs

[Godhumor]

13. What surge? It's currenty at 60.1 versus 39.9

We might see some movement tomorrow, but these levels have remained right around 60-40 for awhile now.

I also expect a McCain bounce from the convention (it always happens), but I think it is unsustainable, and, frankly, this reminds me of the Pat Buchanan debacle from 92.