Umm, Obama is going to win this election

[ruggerson]

I don't mean to interrupt the wail fest, but...

The evil side will get a bump out of this because, frankly, they're better at pulling off strategic, hard hitting sound bite conventions than we are.

But the economy is mired in reverse, gas prices are out of control, people are still losing their houses, the average American is mired in debt....

Daisy Mae is not a game changer. She's a piece of work, and she actually made me laugh a couple of times, but you would be surprised at the huge numbers of women who are offended by her selection.

Obama/Biden are going to win this fall. It may not be a landslide, but I don't think it's going to be a squeaker either.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Daisy Mae is not a game changer

:D

[Honeycombe8]

2. Time will tell. But I think you're wrong on that. The game has already been changed. nt

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[cliffordu]

13. STAT!!!

[Boz]

14. I agree they just said theyre not coming to the fight, so we will now have a harder time

demonstrating the contrasts.

We expected a debate that would show the differences on policies, they say they are the same as us and its going to take to long to unravel the camouflage.

When we have nuance we lose, when we have to explain what it means people don't get it.

Thank god the Obama campaign has this method beat by being on the ground because this is definitely a game that has changed from the norm.

But Obama is in front of it with the ground game.

The fight isn't about winning over new voters, its about shoring up and getting the votes we have won out to the polls.

[Trajan]

15. The game HAS been changed ...

The electorate is horrified at the thought of Sarah Palin as president ...

She did not change that perception ....

Everything they stood for died when he picked her ..... They are done ....

[Honeycombe8]

18. Well, I know I'M horrified. But I was gonna vote Obama, anyway. Not sure if

undecideds are horrified.

[Trajan]

19. All indications are ....

Independents are NOT pleased with the selection of Palin, and her speech tonight was pure red meat for her base ... It did NOTHING to persuade the independents or moderates ....

They need more than their base : They are toast ....

[ginnyinWI]

36. I think she makes Obama/Biden look better.

An independent doesn't want some whacky lady and the old curmudgeon. He/She wants answers to their everyday economic worries, plus someone who seems to know what they're doing on the foreign affairs front.

Obama is more familiar than Palin, and Biden certainly is. I think the addition of Biden to the ticket reassured a lot of indies that yes, this team can do the job. They've got economics and foreign policy covered, and they are NOT another Bush term.

Change is in the air, but Independents don't want to go as far as McPalin. What Johnny Mac has just done is made his ticket the riskier choice!

[amborin]

20. yes, the game's been changed in a dangerous way

rove surely who selected her

pure treachery

she plays well to the masses, especially the ones O needs to win

this is not about issues, it's what the rethugs have now said: it's about personalities and emotions

palin comes across in the folksy, 'i'm struggling and imperfect just like you' way that so resonates with that demographic slice

[cwydro]

3. Coming in to DU tonight after missing the speech

has really freaked me out here. I can smell the fear.

Wtf is that about? That's why I posted my thread wondering if she was that good.

Glad to read something positive.

[Tunkamerica]

10. I didn't get that feeling at all.

Maybe I'm a little later than you guys, all I see is people talking about how terrible she was.

And a bunch of people making reference to posts that are doom and gloom, which I haven't seen. But I usually check the latest thread section first, so perhaps I'm just seeing the reaction to the earlier reaction.

[Boz]

17. She wasn't that good, she was that different. We expected and opponent for Joe

Whats she proved tonight is she is just a shield and camo. No contrast will be able to be brought when they are willing to outright lie and say the same thing we are doing is what they are, it will take beyond the campaign to prove them wrong and they know it.

It was a game change in that they decided not to play the game and hope what they have is enough, the problem lies in that it still is a coin flip and we need the fight to be able to show contrasts.

Thats the fear we dont have an opponent to contrast, the advantage is we have a ground game that goes against this, so it wont matter but it is a change in the game none the less.

The people that are telling you its not are ignorant to reality outside DU.

We got it covered in the ground game, we can educate the people, but this just took out the Media platform.

In fact thats why they attacked the media.

[Frank Booth]

4. She's good at delivering drivel with a smile.

But I don't think she convinced the undecided that she's any good at anything else.

People don't vote based on VP anyway. Palin's more dynamic than Biden, but people trust Biden more. So, the VP picks are, at worst, a wash.

As far as the real nominees, Obama's got way more appeal than McBush.

[Cleita]

8. Kind of like Condoleezza Rice. Maybe she borrowed her speech writer. n/t

[Frank Booth]

11. I think she's better at this than Condie, actually. Condie's constant tremors are distracting.

Still, there are a lot of used car salesman out there who can give a decent speech. Doesn't mean they're qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

[Cleita]

6. I'm not counting my chickens yet because our election system is still

vulnerable to rigging. We just have to get the vote out in overwhelming numbers so that they can't cheat.

[Merlot]

7. Yes, sound bites are us.

I'm really upset that the framing of this is Obama vs palin on experience. That's an endless debate that will take up a lot of hot air. What the debate SHOULD be between them is ETHICS. Has Obama had any troupergates? Apparently, she's got at least three going on right now. She's very untrustworthy. The reason most of these baby rumors started is because people in Wasallia knew enough about her and her family to know that anything is possible with them. Not the first time they've seen her lie.

[ruggerson]

9. well we got to hand it to them

they somehow succeeded in making an unwed teenage pregnancy into a christian family value. :)

[amitten]

12. They also succeeded in making the VP nomination

look like a freakin' joke.

I just can. not. take this woman seriously.

[amborin]

21. but the masses can

it's not about what dems think

it's how she plays to the masses

this is pure rovian strategy

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Situational influence is always the trump card

This year it favors our side, based on an open race after 8 years of Republican rule, and 3+ years of GOP reputation based on Iraq, Katrina and the economy.

I'm always baffled there's so much frenzy over state polls and the latest event or non-event, compared to stepping back and relying on the natural landscape to identify the survivor.

The most likely margin, based on applying a 60/40 situational edge at this stage to a national vote, is a 2-4 point win. If the polls don't move at all, that 60/40 becomes 80/20 or slightly higher on election eve. Right now Obama is considered vulnerable only because we're still so far away, so any number of variables can intrude. It's like future odds with Tiger Woods 2/1 to win the Masters in December, then it's even money on the eve of the tournament, if he's healthy and in form.

I'm not worried. Actually I'm rather amused that Palin did so well, since it's like a payoff for watching her race so closely in 2006 and understanding what she was capable of.

[amborin]

22. your complacency

and over optimism is risky and worrisome

where did you come up with the terms 'natural landscape' and 'situational'?

2004 favored our side, too, given an insane war, massive economic inequality, etc........

but the masses preferred more bush

now enter palin: slick, cunning, dangerous

[Awsi Dooger]

25. 2004 heavily favored the GOP

I was ripped on this site and elsewhere for specifying that. No matter what we thought of Bush, his situational advantage was immense, the most favorable imaginable, an incumbent with his party in power only one term. That situation is 9-1 (Carter '80) in the last century, normally by huge margins.

Our only chance was a low approval rating for Bush. It drifted low enough during '04, but by election day had moved closer to 50%. At that point we needed a very charismatic challenger and Kerry didn't fit.

Where did I come up with situational terms and focus? From 12 years of betting on politics, and doing the necessary research to survive a 16-man betting pool every 2 years. Believe it or not, the mainstream media is remarkably inept at conveying situational influence. That would ruin the day to day frenzy. Who is going to watch if you tell them it's largely predetermined?

BTW, the economic models and wartime situation also favored Bush in 2004. Here's a link to a very wise column by a top Democratic pollster, in fact John Kerry's pollster, on the eve of the 2004 election. I gulped when I read this at the time:

http://hill6.thehill.com/mark-mellman/the-uphill-fight-is-impossible-to-predict-now-2004-11-02.html

"For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.

One could simply suggest that the models are off, but there is more to it than that.

These models essentially confirm that the level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office.

Unemployment and inflation are lower than they have been when incumbents have been defeated. Growth is higher than it has been when presidents have been tossed out of office."

[Awsi Dooger]

26. I forgot to mention how vital 2008 is

If Obama wins, he moves into the most favorable category in 2012, an incumbent with his party in power only one term. In essence, this is a 2-for-1 election.

[amborin]

30. okay, thank you for all that clarification

still, palin has me super worried

the masses fall for her folksy, populist hype

[TheKentuckian]

24. No panic here

I think they're toast but we have to continue to ratchet up the effort.

Palin is the same old threat in a new package.

GOP=negative bump

[AkFemDem]

23. Obviously! Everyone I know in real life was underwhelmed tonight

at best, offended at worst.

Not that Sarah's failure to inspire is The Big Deal anyway, the big deal is that GEB is the worst president in history and John McCain voted with him 90% of the time. The nation is sick of Bush politics and will vote accordingly. The right is verrrry scared right now, as their shrill protests about the media's fair coverage has shown.

[MilesColtrane]

27. Palin will deliver the votes she was selected to deliver:

evangelical Christians.

These people were showing lukewarm support for McCain before.
Not now.

They see Sarah Palin, and in their minds, Jesus is telling them to go to the polls.

[JeffR]

28. Watched every word of her speech.

She don't show me nuthin'.

[Virginia Dare]

34. She showed me that she has mastered the teleprompter..

which is more than the shrub and McSame ever did.

Just kiddin' I didn't watch.

[casus belli]

29. Not so sure about the bump...

They may have solidified their base, but their base wasn't on the fence when it came to deciding who to vote for. They were never going to vote for an Obama/Biden ticket. Moderate Republicans and undecided independents, however, aren't as emotional-issues based, which is all Palin delivered. I think the vast majority of undecided voters, who are actually still undecided, will see straight through the BS and hone in on the fact that, while her speech may have provided some entertainment for the GOP base, it provided little in the way of substance or content. There was nothing, NOTHING here that would put at ease any voters concerns at having her one heartbeat away from assuming the job of POTUS.

[NotThisTime]

31. I agree with you.

[On the Road]

32. Her Selection

was what happens when a traditional male tries to appeal to female voters -- utterly clueless about what the audience looks for. Reminds me of that Special K commerical that had a model skirking in a mirror -- turned off female customers everywhere. It's like trying to appeal to African Americans with images of Missippi riverboats.

[ruggerson]

38. exactly

completely clueless

[OneBlueSky]

33. "It's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes." . . . n/t

[tomp]

35. i'll believe when i see it...

...and not one moment before. predictions mean nothing.

[tblue37]

37. But it *needs* to be a landslide, or they might able to steal it again. n/t