So basically... we just need OH or VA or CO+NH?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Have I got the scenario right? I've been out of it so long, but it looks like not much has changed.

http://pollster.com/

[Marsala]

1. Looks that way, assuming things stay stable

Or even New Hampshire and Nevada, which would be a tie. And guess who rules the House?

[AndyTiedye]

7. Each State Gets One Vote in the House When Voting for President

Do we still win? There are an awful lot of small red states.

[DarthDem]

2. Right

Kerry states + NM + IA + anything larger than a three-EV state gets either the 269 tie, which will be broken in Obama's favor, or the win. I'm thinking CO, OH, VA, and NV will all go Barack's way.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Here is what I come up with...

This, of course, is if Obama wins all of Kerry's states.

270 to win.

Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada = 271
Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa = 273
Colorado, Montana and Iowa = 271
Montana, North & South Dakota, Iowa and New Mexico = 273
Ohio = 272
Florida = 279
Virginia and New Mexico = 270
Virginia and Iowa = 272
North Carolina and Colorado/Nevada/New Mexico = 272 or 276

If we're to believe the polls, Obama wins 306-232, without Florida.

[Lasher]

4. Right now it looks promising.

Here's another source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Their totals are Obama 278, McSame 247, 13 ties (Virginia)

[DCBob]

5. There are a number of scenarios where Obama wins

Check out my cool flash Election Calculator:

http://zbob.net/yeswecan/USAVote.html

Select from the drop down "Obama squeaker". That shows the most likely scenario in my opionion: CO+NM+NH+IA and the rest of typical blue states and give McCAin OH+FL. Virginia would be a cushion or an alternative if some other state falls.

[Captiosus]

6. As a Virginian,

I can't wait to see the state turn blue.

Back in 2004, Bush only carried the state by 2% of the total vote count. I think it's safe to say that over the last 4 years we've had enough growth in the major metropolitan areas - especially Hampton Roads, Richmond and Northern VA - to push beyond that 2% difference. So it boils down to voter turnout and, frankly, I don't see the repubs down here making any kinds of push like the Obama camp has been for months. I think the GOP still considers Virginia a "lock".

The local papers down here in Hampton Roads, despite being more left than right, keep trying to push McCain and military relations but, fact of the matter is, if you go back and look at the Virginia voting maps, the ones which are colored by District, almost all of the big "military hubs", including Norfolk (Naval Station Norfolk), Virginia Beach (Oceana NAS, Little Creek Amphibious Base), Hampton (Langley AFB, Fort Monroe) and Newport News (Fort Eustis and Newport News Shipyard by proxy) have voted democratic since AT LEAST 1992.

[VolcanoJen]

8. Ohio can happen

It really can.

Essentially, flip 30,000 voters in Cincinnati alone and you win the Presidency.

It's not that many people. And we're getting close down here.