SurveyUSA shows Palin speech bump among independents

[Abacus]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36ee8fde-58bf-4027-a75b-b29d86b66b92

More than I had expected after listening to the speech but probably less than they had hoped for and needed.

[quantass]

1. Maybe i'm seeing it wrong but doesnt this show she did not get a bump at all...

those who said asset amounted to a 12pt increase while those who thought it a liability was 17 pts...spread = -5 ??

[Crooked Moon]

2. not sure what you're seeing

but it would appear that those who thought she was a liability decreased from 44% to 27% after the speech.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. The text (might clarify the chart) > > >

Palin Speech Moves Independents: Results of two nationwide polls conducted by SurveyUSA show Sarah Palin's speech at the Republican National Convention on the evening of 09/03/08 has helped the McCain campaign.

24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain's campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.

The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.

Betting Line Changes: 24 hours ago, when asked if they would bet on Obama or McCain becoming president, Obama was a 16:15 favorite; today, it's flipped, and McCain is favored by the same ratio.

Grading The Speech: Of those who watched Palin speak last night, 60% give the speech a grade of "A." When those giving lower grades are factored in and a standard grade point average computed on a 4-point scale, Palin scores a "B," overall. Among Republicans, she gets an "A-;" among Independents, a solid "B;" among Democrats, a "C."

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1200 adults in two separate surveys, on 09/03/08 and 09/04/08. In each survey, those identifying themselves as registered voters were asked the questions which followed.

[Kdillard]

4. Are they kidding me with this poll. It is like some upside down universe.

[geek tragedy]

7. Voters are morons. The Republicans kick our ass every four years

because they recognize this and we don't.

[Gabi Hayes]

5. Survey USA is garbage. here's what they always do, then defend their 'methodology' spuriously

http://colorado.mediamatters.org/items/200608230002

On the August 21 broadcast of KUSA's 9News at 5 p.m., reporter Adam Schrager summarized a SurveyUSA/9News poll of 535 likely voters that showed 7th Congressional District candidates Ed Perlmutter (D) and Rick O'Donnell (R) each with 45 percent of the vote. Despite noting that in the 7th District "the voter registration numbers are split almost equally among Republicans, Democrats, and independents," Schrager did not inform viewers that the poll's sample included far more Republicans than either Democrats or independents.

However, Schrager acknowledged in a related story posted on the 9News.com website shortly before his August 21 television report that "hile the district is nearly divided evenly among Republican, Democrat and unaffiliated voters," the survey sample included "44 percent Republicans, 33 percent Democrats, and 21 percent independents." Schrager's article further noted, "As of July 14, the Colorado Secretary of State's office reported 112,879 Republicans, 120,603 Democrats and 122,747 unaffiliated voters."
...........

Survey USA Director of Election Polling Dr. Joseph Shipman told 9NEWS the poll was accurate.

He said the numbers could be a result of more Republicans describing themselves as likely to vote and Democrats who supported Perlmutter's opponents with primary fatigue, not defining themselves as likely to vote.

[Abacus]

28. That's why I didn't pay much attention to anything but the Moderates and Independents

The remainder is temporary misplaced enthusiasm.

The image is also not showing, which would probably have made the information more clear. Here is another attempt.

[geek tragedy]

6. American voters fall for this shit EVERY TIME.

They don't care about issues. They care about their personal prejudices.

We have to treat the American voters as the morons they are.

[Tesibria]

8. Wrong.

Or, I hope you're wrong.

American people (like many people) have immediate reactions, pro and con, after something exciting.

Think about how many times you watched a movie the first time and came out smiling, and saying "That was great!" -- only to rent it when it comes out on DVD and be way less impressed the first time.

This is the expected reaction. It's immediate.

But I expect that people will sit and think and evaluate over the next 60 days ... and this immediate reaction will settle back into something coherent.

[geek tragedy]

9. One of these decades you may be right.

Barack is trying to reason with voters. He thinks they vote based on issues.

I think that's foolishly naive.

[Franks Wild Years]

13. I think it's a bit of both...

...obviously a shade over half of the American electoral is beyond idiotic, but almost EVERY party gets a convention bounce, and always has done - Even Bob Dole got a decent sized one. And that's where Tesibria's point is validated - People have a strange perspective on things immediately after they've been exposed to it, hence the regular evaporation of the 'convention bounce'.

[Tesibria]

18. What I DO know is that we won't win ANYONE over by calling them morons :)

and ....

I mean - what's the alternative? What's naive about running a principled campaign?

I mean - lets just say that Obama hired Karl Rove, and took his advice. And ran a Rovian campaign, of divisiveness and hate and bitterness.

And won.
....
Then what? What have we won?

Nothing.

We'd have "won" more of the same.

What's the POINT then?

We'd have lost all we're fighting for.

I don't get it.

[geek tragedy]

19. We win, then we enact good legislation.

Politics in this country is hopeless, because of the goddamn American voters who determine every election--the 10% of Swing voters who vote based on emotion, not logic.

Principled campaigns are stupid because they never win the White House. Ever.

[Tesibria]

21. By what authority is that possible

...if we've traded all our principles to get there, and created a further divided country, no legislation could succeed.

And .. really?

Clinton 92.

Carter?

FDR?

Lincoln?

What ARE you talking about.

[geek tragedy]

22. An entire generation has passed since Carter, and he only

won because of Watergate.

This electorate has been trained by the Republicans. They are MORONS.

[Tesibria]

23. Tragedy is right

Point 1: You said "Ever" - with emphasis by virtue of its single word sentence structure. Now you're backtracking. (Or, despite your geek moniker, you're actually not one.)

Point 2: Carter won because people were sick of Republicans without principles. And they believed (or hoped) that Carter had some. The question for this election is whether people have come back around to Watergate. Have there been enough ---gates in the past 8 years.

Point 3: Clinton was elected twice - last decade. That electorate was not moronic.

Point 4: In 2000, the electorate chose Al Gore. (Actually, so did the electoral college, but the S.Ct. overturned it.) That electorate was not moronic.

Point 5: I'm not sure whether you are part of that electorate you so disdain.

But I am.
I *AM* the electorate. I vote. I am not a moron.

And you're just wrong. With all due respect. Your approach is what is WRONG with our politics. And as an American voter, it is just your kind of politic - the Republi-Rovian derisive, disrespectful politic that turns me off.

It's not moronic. It's just terrible.

And I'm SO glad that Obama won't engage on your/Rove's level.

That's my hope.

That's my candidate.

And I AM the electorate.

[geek tragedy]

24. Bill ran a demagoguic campaign.

He wasn't afraid to say his opponents didn't care about people. He didn't worry about having too much respect. Bill was a cutthroat. Bill executed a mentally retarded man to get traction during the primary.

That's the kind of pol that gets elected President in this country.

[Tesibria]

25. Obama: "McCain doesn't get it"

Have you watched Obama's presser today?

Obama isn't afraid to say that McCain doesn't GET it.

Not getting is is worse than not caring.

[geek tragedy]

26. Oooh, he doesn't get it.

Yeah, that's really inflammatory.

[Tesibria]

27. :::Smiling:::

Best of luck to you GT.

And thank you (sincerely) for enabling me to practice responding to Flamers/idealogues who desert principle for an alleged principled cause. It's been good practice for my similarly idealogue-driven extended family.

Let's touch base in November.

[book_worm]

10. Survey USA always has Obama doing worse than he eventually does.

[qanda]

11. The bump was that they thought she was an asset to McCain's campaign

Instead of a liability.

[ClarkUSA]

12. Last week, David Plouffe said the only polls that count are the battleground state polls.

A new Democracy Corps survey (a Democratic polling firm) shows Obama leading McGeezer by 49% to 44%, and holds
a 6-point edge, 49% to 43%, in a group of battleground states that voted for Chimpface by 4 points in 2004.

Analysis: "Obama has consolidated the Democratic vote and has unified the Party. Both nationally and in the presidential
battleground states Obama's support among Democrats (87 percent nationally and 88 percent in the battleground states)
is virtually identical to McCain's support among Republicans."

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/09/after-convention-obama-consolidates-democrats-and-clinton-supporters-expands-lead-in-presidential-battleground/

Team Obama have very finely tuned internal polls, of course. Plouffe also said to ignore the topline and only look at the
data underneath (aka. the demographic breakdown).

[Abacus]

29. I essentially agree

DEVs/REVs is the current extrapolation based on a moving average of recent polls

The Projected shows an estimate of what the EV score would look like if polls were done in all 50 states today.



Blue/Red: self explanatory. Green is the projected number of what Obama's EV score would look like if polls were done in all 50 states today. Blue and Green should trend toward each other.

Bottom chart is the popular vote mean.



Source Data for the above charts. Regrettably, I did not keep a history of my data before August; it simply wasn't very interesting.

[Eric J in MN]

14. These numbers don't mean anything.

If they polled before and after the speech and the number of people who wanted to vote for McCain soared, I'd be worried.

Asking people if they think the VP nominee is an asset is asking them to second-guess how other people might think about the ticket. It's contrived.

[Perky]

15. Oh for God's sake look at the oversampling of Repukes and Conservatives!!!!

Look at what percentage said they watched the speech.


THere is no way inhelll 7 out of ten registed voters watched this speech. None.


I doubt they hit 70% among likely voters.

[regnaD kciN]

16. One disquieting number from this survey...

54% of total believe media is biased toward Obama, only 8% believe it is biased toward McCain. Among independents, it's the same margin, 55%-9%.

:wtf:

[Marsala]

20. In fairness...

...the media being biased against McCain is becoming increasingly true. Or at least it SHOULD happen, as he continues to make war on them.

[crimsonblue]

17. check out my analysis of this poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6934096&mesg_id=6934096