Obama's Narrow Lead Harkens Back to 1980 Election

[bluestateguy]

This is for those of you in the "Why isn't Obama ahead by 20 points?!" crowd.

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.28525/pub_detail.asp

By Norman J. Ornstein
Posted: Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Why isn't Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) doing better in the polls? As the convention opened, that question continued to grip political analysts and observers of all stripes.

Given a) the poor standing of President Bush and his Republican Party, b) the clear public preference for a sharp change in the fall, and c) the major advantage for Democrats over Republicans on the economy, taxes, gasoline prices, health, education, the environment and Iraq, the Democratic nominee should be leading by a wide margin over his GOP opponent. But Obama's lead has been slender, averaging about 4 points or so over several months in national surveys.

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1980, like 2008, was a change election. Jimmy Carter, running for a second term, was extremely unpopular as the election approached; his approval rating stood at 21 percent in mid-July, the lowest number recorded by Gallup since it started the measurement in 1938. Carter was subject to a stiff contest for his own party's nomination from a liberal icon, Sen. Edward Kennedy (Mass.); while he skillfully beat back the challenge, his own convention was raucous and divided from start to finish.

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The dynamic of the 1980 race changed with the one presidential debate on Oct. 28, just one week before the election. In that debate, Reagan--toe-to-toe with the incumbent--held his own, showing that he could do just fine in direct comparison to the president of the United States. Reagan framed the election perfectly for voters poised to go to the polls: Were they better off than they had been four years earlier? And he appeared as a reasonable, intelligent, moderate and sane person, making backfire the suggestions that he was a wild-eyed extremist just dying to get his finger on the nuclear trigger to provoke a High Noon-type confrontation with the Soviet Union. From the debate on, Reagan's 3-point lead widened to his 9-point-plus landslide popular vote margin over Carter on Election Day.

And the polling from 1980:

http://www.rollcall.com/pdfs/NormChart.pdf

[holiday]

1. I don't think debates change anything anymore... look

at how horrible Bush did compared to Kerry. I didn't even know he was that stupid. Kerry beat the crap out of him and yet he still won.

[BlueManDude]

4. the debates are irrelevant. the issues are irrelevant. mccain will win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. ?

?

[melody]

8. Well, thank you for deciding all that for us. I guess the rest of us can go home now

eom

[EstimatedProphet]

11. Are we to be assimilated then?

[stillcool]

Not in Ohio..as we all know...

[Union Thug]

6. Spot on. Kerry eviscerated Bush in those debates...

and any person with an IQ of 90 or more knew it. And yet here we are.

[FreakinDJ]

9. I think debates have every thing to do with election outcome

Poppy Bush looking at his watch 3 times during a national televised debate

George Bush did GREAT in the 2nd debate even thou he made a mockery of the rules of order - He took the lead

[Arugula Latte]

10. The media creates its own reality.

In 1980, the media wasn't so co-opted. Now they'll say McCain was impressive and commanding, no matter what he says or how he comes across.

[VADem11]

12. The debates helped Kerry though

Bush was leading by a fairly big margin until the debates revived Kerry.

[msongs]

2. reagan was the master of PLAIN speaking AMERICAN, not verbose details - he was an actor by trade nt

[DJ13]

3. After the last two elections I no longer believe MSM polls

They are conducted now to reach a preconceived result.

They are trying to make it look closer than it really is.

[BrklynLiberal]

5. POLLING FRAUD MUST PRECEDE ELECTION FRAUD..