Rasmussen daily GE graph for 9/6/08 - Obama 46, McCain 45 (unchanged)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 49, McCain 46 (O ↑ 1)

Is the Great Republican Palin-Convention Bounce over?














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Coexist]

1. rasmussen? really? is the bounce over already?

[Cattledog]

2. No movement

Nice!

[KansasVoter]

3. ???

[ClarkUSA]

4. Full bounce effect will be on Monday

Two full business days after Grampa Simpson's speech.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Why would that be?

People not paying attention over the weekend? Variation in the poll sample?

During the primary, there seemed to be a negative effect on Obama's Rasmussen numbers during the weekend. Then he'd move up again during the week.

[kattenstoet]

6. daily numbers

I've been extracting daily numbers from the 3-day averaged tracking polls (it's an inexact science since they round their numbers), but the daily equivalents I get for yesterday from Rasmussen are O 50.2 M 47.0. That's O +3 from the day before and M +1 from the day before. It's one day, but seems to be evidence for the Palin bounce ending (and for there being no McCain speech bounce).

[DavidDvorkin]

7. I tried extracting the daily numbers but gave up on it

The rounding defeated me.

It's good news that there was no speech bump for McCain. I'd have been astonished if there had been, given what a bad speech it was. But I've been surprised in such matters before.

[ClarkUSA]

8. Both of your explanations qualify as reasons.

Most analysts are waiting for Monday's numbers.

[Edgewater_Joe]

9. No Palin Bounce - Hopefully a McSame Dip

Spiced with cheese and whine -- RIIIIGHT, TAAAHHHDDD????

[DavidDvorkin]

10. A bland and tasteless but poisonous dip

Identical to the one that preceded it.

[DemocracyInaction]

11. Been watching one part of R's numbers

I noted that on Friday (which would have been the bounce from Palin) and today. For the last several days Obama has had more leaners than McCain. Friday it was the same and today it's back to Obama getting 3 leaners with McCain still at 2. So, it's back to the pattern. I doubt if there is much to come from McCain---except maybe backwards--because his speech was a zero and the base doesn't like him. Remember they all say it was "Palin's" convention.