So how do we put together our electoral majority of 270?

[book_worm]

First I assume that Obama will win all the Kerry states of 2004

That is a base of 252 electoral votes. Yes, some will be competitive, but at the end of the day I feel the Dems will win these base states. Yes, Gramps and Barbie will make a show for Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, but in the end Obama will win. If Gramps were a true independent and had selected Ridge as his running mate (pro-choice, so the fundies vetoed him, and Gramps the independent, caved) he would have had a better shot at PA, but Barbie is just Santorum in a skirt and he got his ass beat in 2006.

Begin with 252 electoral votes

Still needed: 18

Best pick up opportunities from Bush:

Without a doubt
Iowa: 7 electoral votes
New Mexico: 5 electoral votes
(Kerry lost both Iowa and New Mexico in 2004 by slender margins. Recent polls give Obama a double-digit lead in both. In Iowa, he has led for months.)

This brings Obama 12 more electoral votes for a total of 264

Still needed: 6 electoral votes

Now we have several battleground states:
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Virginia (13)
Nevada (5)
Montana (3)
Indiana (11)
North Carlina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Colorado (9)

Here's how I would rank them in order of liklihood of going to Obama:
1. Virginia
2. Colorado
3. Montana (though Palin may attract some gun nuts, but I doubt Obama would win those anyway)
4. Ohio (we now have a Dem Gov and Dem Sec of State)
5. North Carolina (a big turnout of AA voters could do it)
6. Nevada
7. North Dakota (The states of the upper MW: WI, MN, IA, ND, are strong for Obama)
8. Indiana
9. Florida (I've been surprised by how well Obama is doing in FL in the polls, but in the end I think with the GOP in control of the govt there they would find a way to steal it)

We could reach 270 with just picking up one state like Virginia or Colorado, but odds are I think in the end Obama's electoral vote total will be over 300 giving him a cushion if McCain did manage to pick off one or two of our blue base states like NH or Michigan (as I said, not likely, imo).

I can see many ways Obama can reach 270--with Gramps it is difficult to see how he will have the time and resources to get there.

[xiamiam]

1. this should be our focus...good work..nt

[Rockholm]

2. Vote.

[book_worm]

3. and you forgot volunteer.

[Rockholm]

7. Volunteer.

You are so right. Oh, and Donate money, if you are able to.

[nevergiveup]

4. I think Nevada is the sleeper that could

well go for Obama. Ohio, in my opinion, is a lost cause. Colorado and Virginia will be really close. I think we will be up all night.

[Seen the light]

5. Despite polls, still very unlikely that VA goes blue. CO on the other hand....

I'm extremely extremely extremely extremely extremely positive about our chances in Colorado this year. I would say that would be the one to get Obama over the top. Of the other battlegrounds you listed, I think Ohio and POSSIBLY Nevada and Florida could go to Obama. I wouldn't count on the others at all.

[DCBob]

6. I built an Election Calculator that identifies several winning scenarios and

some plausible ties.

http://zbob.net/yeswecan/USAVote.html

Feel free to use it. Just select a scenario from the drop down or create your own. It is built in Flash 8. Enjoy!