Gallup- Obama By Two

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Per MSNBC

[Lex]

1. Not much of a Palin bounce, then?

:shrug:

[slinkerwink]

2. he was at 4 yesterday, wasn't he? or was it 3?

[Hope And Change]

3. It was 4.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. That's very good. My prediction holds!

I am on record as of a week ago that McCain would never lead again in the Gallup daily. Perhaps a tie tomorrow (or a one-day blip lead of a point), but that's as far as it goes.

The current bpunce is some piss-poor performance for a duo that had back-to-back 40 million viewership in two of the three days of the poll!

Hillary's speech was worth SIX POINTS all by itself, and she's not even on the ticket.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'm Getting Concerned

Frank Newport cryptically said McCane had a "very good night" and we will have to see if it holds tonight...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Tomorrow should be his high-water mark. An historical question...

In our life times, did anyone except Reagan in 1980 ever get a bigger margin than the height of their convention bounce? It seems that it should usually be any candidate's high-water mark.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Newport SaidThe Candidate Ahead After Both Conventions Won Fifteen Of The Last Eighteen Elections

The exceptions were Reagan, Kennedy, and I forgot the third...

[Zynx]

8. W. He was behind after Gore's convention.

[kattenstoet]

12. daily numbers

obama had a good day on the day before palin's speech - if he's only up by 2 today, it means he was outpolled by mccain by one or two points yesterday - that means that mccain is likely to be ahead by one or two points tomorrow unless obama has a particularly good day today

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. You Guys Are Good At Figuring Out The Methodology

But I have seen people try to figure out Gallup and Rassmussen and get it wrong...

I hope you're wrong...No offense...But I want to win this...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. It seductive to think it can be done, but

Having trying to deduce daily sub-sets in at least five presidential elections I am always surprised.

It seems simple, but the number of varriables makes it essentially impossible unless Gallup published a string of daily subsets as a basis for subsequent deduction.

Sometimes an unmoving string of 45-45 days is full of 55-35 and 35-55 daily subsets. They cannot be deduced.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Gallup's Samples Are So Large That Even Their One Day Sample Have A Relatively Low Margin Of Error

They are interviewing 800, 900 people a night not 200 or 300 like Zogby...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

20. That's true, but everytime I have made a prediction based on a presumption of a daily subset...

Obama HAD to drop the day the Hillary bounce rolled off the average. One day included both the 6 point Hillary-jump day AND the post Obama speech day, muddied somewhat by the early morning Palin pick.

Hillary day Had to be Obama's single best day ever in the Gallup daily. It was certainly the biggest one day jump either candidate has had, or will have.

The next day was only Obama's speech and two days of Palin. So Obama just HAD to go down that day. But he didn't.

It's a big mystery.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. When do you decide to count the post-election numbers?

Were they yesterday's results? Today's? Tomorrow's? This time next week?

[melody]

9. What matters is the electoral college

The national numbers can slide all over the place but McCain will soon shrink back to where he was.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. PS

I think Obama is a remarkably poor national candidate--he is a Democratic primary voter's idea of a good national candidate, which is not a category with a good track record.

His message control is from hunger, and he's making a mistake trying to "common-man" himself. Stop appearing in shirt-sleeves! That's a rich white politician trick to appear common. Obama should always appear presidential because 'not ready' is more dangerous than 'elitist.'

But since he will be outspending McCain two to one on TV ads I am not as worried as I could be.

He has some valuable qualities in a 60 day campaign. He's disciplined and cautious. If he doesn't clearly lose the debates (which he shouldn't, being cautious and disciplined) then the only people who can save McCain are Bin Laden, Achmenijhad (mis-spelled, but I'm not going to look it up), Putin or some whacko in Pakistan.

[geek tragedy]

19. I disagree on the not ready vs. elitist thing.

The politics of resentment is how the GOP intends to win this thing--the Palin pick was the big tip-off for that. They're going to gin up hate propaganda against Obama amongst the trailer park crowd until Barack Obama's name becomes an epithet.

Meanwhile, Obama and Biden will talk about what a hero McCain is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. We Were Always Going To Lose That Vote But We Need To Mitigate Our Losses There Or We Are In Trouble

~

[geek tragedy]

25. Well, they need to slime McCain and Palin to do that.

I don't think they will. They seem to be smoking the 'I respect the values and intelligence of the American voter' weed.

I was an Obama supporter in the primary, but I didn't think he'd be this pitifully naive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I Am Not Prepared To Second Guess Obama Because It's Futile

I have no alternative but to trust him...

I don't think the republic can stand a third Bush term...

[Quixote1818]

10. I agree. McCain maxes out at about 45%. He can't seem to get above that number

I suspect the election will be 52% to 48% Obama which would be a huge Electoral win for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. You Have Barr, Nad(i)r, and McKinney

They should be good for two points total..

I'll call it 49-49-2 scattered... A nail biter...

[Quixote1818]

22. Barr is taking away 3X more votes from McCain than Nader is from Obama

I am going to say 50% Obama, 47% McCain 2% Barr 1% Nader

[debbierlus]

13. That is EXCELLENT given that the Repukes just had their convention

Those are pathetic numbers after a four days of nothing but Obama bashing.

[Honeycombe8]

17. Here are recent poll results, not counting today's....

courtesy of realclearpolitics.com

Poll..................Date.............Sample...Obama(D)...McCain(R)...Spread
RCP Average.......08/29-09/05................46.8.......44.........Obama +2.8
RasmussenTracking..09/03-09/05.3000 LV.....49........46..........Obama +3
Gallup Tracking....09/02-09/04.2779 RV.....48........44..........Obama +4
Hotline/FDTracking.09/02-09/04.916 RV......46........40..........Obama +6
CBS News...........09/01-09/03.734 RV......42........42..........Tie
CNN................08/29-08/31.927 RV......49........48..........Obama +1

[geek tragedy]

21. I predicted that McCain would pull ahead by Monday-Tuesday,

and everyone called me a concern troll, etc etc.

McCain will get a bigger bounce than we did, because the Republicans pulled off a better VP-convention combo than we did.

We have to face the fact that when it comes to campaigning, the McCain people are just simply better than the Obama people. The Obama people are better on the ground, so hopefully that can make up for it.

[TomClash]

24. That's about where the race was when the conventions began

It's better to help than worry.

[Lex]

27. kick