Kurt_and_Hunter
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Sat Sep-06-08 11:33 AM
Original message |
Undecideds usually break against the party in power, but |
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Edited on Sat Sep-06-08 11:41 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter
Undecideds usually break against the party in power by about 2:1, but if there is a "Bradley Effect" (unknown) it is probably concealed in the high level of undecideds. (If a respondent is embarrassed to say he's voting McCain he has a refuge in "undecided")
So if someone worries about the Bradley effect I would counter with the fact that undecideds break against the party in power.
And if someone was super confident in Obama getting two-thirds of undecideds I would counter with the possibility of a Bradley effect.
So I am considering the two factors a wash. Neutral.
(Meaning a lead is a lead is a lead... which is a good thing, since we generally lead.)
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Mz Pip
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Sat Sep-06-08 11:35 AM
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1. Anyone who is too embarrassed |
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to say they are voting for McCain shouldn't be voting for McCain.
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geek tragedy
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Sat Sep-06-08 11:36 AM
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2. I think both are negligible this time around. |
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Undecideds didn't break for the Democrats in 2004. And, Bradley effect hasn't shown up anywhere so far.
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SheilaT
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Sat Sep-06-08 12:09 PM
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also be a cover for some who have qualms about voting for a black man? Yes that's racist, but there are a lot of people out there who don't honestly consider themselves racist but still think things that they don't realize are racist, such as that the country still isn't ready for a black president.
All we can hope for is that those who are paying attention during the next two months will come to realize that their best interests -- and the country's -- lies in voting for Obama/Biden.
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Liberal_Stalwart71
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Sat Sep-06-08 12:17 PM
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4. We overcome this deficit by increased TURNOUT with the young and new voters in particular |
nevergiveup
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Sat Sep-06-08 12:27 PM
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5. I know way too many folks |
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who are waiting/looking for an excuse to vote for McCain. They like Obama but still feel uncomfortable with him. They don't like McCain but if he holds up in the debates they will likely switch to him.
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On the Road
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Sat Sep-06-08 06:18 PM
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6. If Those Two Effects Cancel Each Other Out |
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it would be a godsend. I am very worried about the Bradley effect. If the polls are correct and undecideds don't affect the result, looks like Obama has a clear shot.
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DU
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Fri Apr 19th 2024, 10:21 AM
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