Today's Polls: The Bounce Cometh? - Ace Tracking Poll Analysis by Nate Silver

[jefferson_dem]

Today's Polls: The Bounce Cometh?

Although the topline results don't make it obvious, it appears that John McCain had a fairly strong night of polling in the daily tracking polls, which are the only numbers we have to look at today.

The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:

Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

So Obama's numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held up relatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin's speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward from yesterday's figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likely leading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow's Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead.

As for Rasmussen , it actually has Barack Obama gaining a point, and moving into a 3-point lead. However, it still looks like McCain may have had a relatively good night on Friday. My tracking poll algorithm will have more difficulty with the Rasmussen tracker than the Gallup tracker because Rasmussen uses a more complicated weighting procedure (i.e. weighting by party ID), meaning that we're a step further away from seeing "raw" numbers. But with grain of salt, here is what I show:

Wednesday: Obama +4.9
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3

Once again, I would caution against overinterpreting any of this. Conventions should produce bounces -- they are the equivalent of tens of millions of dollars in free advertising time. What we don't know is how to contextualize these bounces. An average convention bounce is about 6 points, but we don't know how the Democratic and Republican conventions interact with one another, particularly as it affects the timing of the respective bounces. Moreover, Fridays (and Saturdays) are tough nights to poll. My hunch, as I've stated before, is that whatever numbers McCain winds up with over the weekend, Barack Obama will probably be polling a couple of points ahead of those numbers by the end of the upcoming week.

--Nate Silver

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/06/today-s-polls-the-bounce-cometh.aspx

[nsd]

1. I guess this means we ought to be prepared for McCain to take the lead tomorrow.

But if Silver's right, he won't hold it for long.

[Fluffdaddy]

2. Some people here will lose their damn minds if that happens

There many people who thought this was going to be a cake walk

[jefferson_dem]

3. True. Just a "heads up" that a rocky day may be on the way.

Weekends have routinely been tougher polling days for Obama anyway.

However, if McLame doesn't lead tomorrow, he might not ever lead.

[Kdillard]

4. Nate is probably right and then we will see McCain's numbers cycle back down.

I feel it is only after the debates we will truly see where we are at in this election. If Obama/Biden do well we should get a bounce that will be hard for the Mccain camp to recover from but if we don't do well we are going to be in trouble. Obama and Biden must be prepared and really get their points across in a concise manner and not get into justifications or too much expalanation.

[Gabi Hayes]

5. whether to pay much attention to daily tracking polls:

Pollster.com: Gallup Daily - The Worst Thing in 10 Years?Aug 29, 2008 ... Top-line "horse race" results ARE practically useless, ... I suspect that Plouffe's comment about the daily tracking polls reflects the ...
www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_daily_the_worst_thing_i.php - 57k - Cached - Similar pages

Pollster.com – Award Winning Analysis of Polls and SurveysFrom Plouffe's and Pfeiffer's point of view, the Gallup Daily is useless - even ..... The Gallup Daily tracking poll is apparently a particular sore point. ...
www.pollster.com/blogs/ - 232k - Cached - Similar pages

Growing Polling Controversy on Daily Tracking Polls Part III: Why ...Aug 31, 2008 ... From Plouffe's and Pfeiffer's point of view, the Gallup Daily is useless - even in understanding the national sentiment. ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6841885 - 140k - Cached - Similar pages

Plouffe Previews The Fall Campaign - Swampland - TIMEAug 27, 2008 ... I really liked the article with Plouffe. As an Obama supporter, it's benn hard not to worry with all the pundits talking about the polls and ...
www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/08/plouffe_previews_the_fall_camp.html - 53k - Cached - Similar pages

Ben Smith's Blog: Plouffe: Creating 'chaos' not helpful - Politico.comWhere was she before when we went to the polls and wanted to vote and was ..... she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general ...
www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Plouffe_Creating_chaos_not_helpful.html - 401k - Cached - Similar pages

Obama Camp Manager: Don't Read National PollsAug 26, 2008 ... David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the ..... The daily tracking poll I put more stock than the ones being ...
www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/26/obama-camp-manager-dont-r_n_121392.html?page=6 - 176k - Cached - Similar pages

TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo | McCain Takes Lead In ...Aug 26, 2008 ... Like i said before, Eric, nobody cares about this daily poll except ..... David Plouffe, key Obama aide, says national polls don't matter ...
tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/mccain_takes_lead_in_gallup_fo.php - 169k - Cached - Similar pages

Barack Obama | Sam Graham-Felsen's Blog: Message from David ...Campaign manager David Plouffe just sent out this email. ...... isn't covering the Rasmussen daily tracking polls of a hypothetical McCain-Clinton contest. ...
my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBmF9/commentary - Similar pages


Dem-Aligned Fund For America To Close Its Doors - The FixDavid the Liar Plouffe is attempting to hold MCCAIN to his Campaign Finance .... NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential ...
voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/06/fund_for_america_closes_its_do.html - Similar pages

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive ...Aug 2, 2008 ... In June, Plouffe had suggested Obama-McCain meetings more along the ..... The debates are useless. It's all about discrediting and blame. ...
politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/02/obama-backs-away-from-lincoln-douglas-style-debates/ - 120k - Cached - Similar pages

[Peacetrain]

6. Well I posted to this on another thread also

and I am surprised McCain did not have a bump yet, because of all the controversy of the Palin selection and how it got people to watch.

It would only make sense he would get a bump, even a lead for a few days, as Palin and her antics start to drift down, those polls will return to Obama.

But I am sure, if McCains numbers come in big tomorrow or Monday, there will be those who are going to get the vapors and will have to be propped up, and reassured the sky is not falling.

~sigh~

[Awsi Dooger]

7. McCain will probably pull into a tie then it will naturally recoil to Obama by 2 or 3

That's been my stated prediction in many threads for several days.

I can't believe there's so much obsession with daily numbers and when a sample is going to fall out of a 3-day average. It would drive me out of my mind if I had to pretend every day mattered as opposed to the big picture situational influence.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. When they see the photos of the animals that Palin slaughtered they will think again!

BEWARE only look if you aren't squeamish

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6965027&mesg_id=6965027