Bad News for McCain Campaign (updated)

[ProSense]

Bad News for McCain Campaign

by Liberal Youth
Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 04:24:40 AM PDT

The registration trends are in. If McCain is counting on a base turnout strategy, these numbers tell the story of why that will just not work. In contrast these numbers are good news for Obama and a demonstration of why the GOTV efforts that Obama is laying the foundation for will have such an important role. The dems are killing in a number of key states and if they can get these voters to the polls he will have an advantage.

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So to synthesize the information, the McCain camp is really in trouble in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada. Florida is a strange case which you can read about here. While it is nice to see Obama gaining ground in North Carolina the past trends do not indicate that he will carry the state. Even picking up over 150,000 voter advantage over McCain in registrations during 2008 is just not going to make that much of a dent. dems held, and still do, a massive lead in voter id in that state and still lost by almost more than 400,000 votes.

The poor registration numbers of the GOP in these states may be due to several factors. The most important of these factors is the lack of enthusiasm among the general populace for the GOP. People have been leaving the GOP in droves over the last several years. It is one of the few indicators that help explain why the conservatives are always so united around ideas that most people dont agree with. the GOP is being whitled down to its pure base, its pure ideological purity.

The biggest example of this is the total death of the party in the north east. The elephant is virtually extinct on the national stage there and so this means that there are no moderating influences in the party. The more seats in congress the dems take in competitive districts the more conservative the gop will be on the national stage, simply because the moderates cant win in districts without a huge republican advantage, but those districts go to the hardest core republicans. its a catch-22.

more

Edited to add -- Obama Campaign: 49,000 New Voters in VA in August

[yourguide]

1. Interesting.

Why the loss on both ends in colorado I wonder?

[1corona4u]

2. Awesome!! They are down a mil, LOL...

take that fuckers.

[iamjoy]

3. Don't Count On It

The Republicans have been trying very hard to disassociate itself with Bush. If you watched the Convention, you would barely know the current president is of the same party.

McSame remains very popular with Independents. They also seem to love Palin. Don't ask me why - the only thing I can figure is they are buying the image of them as mavericks.

[4_Legs_Good]

5. If it's the maveric image that is being bought, then it's where we need to attack

It's not credible either. Kerry's points at the convention should be hammered home. McSame of 2000 is not McSame of 2008. Everyone needs to know he sold any soul he had, and now has become an agent of Evil/Bush.

David

[ProSense]

7. Don't count on what?

This isn't a poll, this is actual voter registration.

[demosincebirth]

11. Exactly.

[zbdent]

12. I'm not exactly excited ... remember, "Operation Chaos" encouraged

Repugnicons to register as Dems to keep the infighting going on, long after McSame was the "presumptive" Repuke nominee ...

[iamjoy]

14. It Isn't Necessarily Bad News for McSame

these people may not be registering Republican, but they will still vote that way. It's almost like they don't want to admit it (too ashamed) or see McSame as independent.

[ProSense]

16. So you believe that

when the results come in it will show an unusual number of registered Dems voted for McCain?

That's a stretch. This is not the primary.

[iamjoy]

19. We Shouldn't Get Overconfident

that's all.

[ProSense]

22. Agree. n/t

[speedoo]

8. Independents do NOT love Palin.

And they are not as crazy about this version of McSame as they used to be.

McSame can try as much as he can, he is not escaping his Bush affiliation.

[melody]

10. No, independents HATE Palin

That's the group the GOP is most worried about.

[Blue_Roses]

13. he's no maverick when he voted with Bush 90% of the time!

fuck that theory:mad:

[iamjoy]

15. Don't Be Mad at Me

I don't believe it myself, I am bewildered that anyone seems to believe it but the media keeps trying to shove it down people's throats, so if they aren't doing their own research, that is what they will believe.

[4_Legs_Good]

4. I like those New Hampshire numbers!!!

NH could be critical this year, as I somehow see it as McSame territory, and we *could* be looking at 1 EV making the difference as it did in 2000.

If PA and NH are safe, we've got any number of pathways to victory including Kerry+IA+CO+NM, which I think is easiest.

Of course, I believe, and hope, we'll also get VA, NV and OH, and I'm praying for FL, IN and NC.

David

[abumbyanyothername]

9. Path to victory

Iowa is firmly Obama now. As is Minnesota.

Obama needs Michigan, plus 15 more. That can be Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or less likely Florida on their own. Or a western state deluge like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and even Arizona.

Personally, I would like to see a big, broadly based geographically sweep and a continued commitment from the candidate to represent all of America. Even if it meant some of my pet policies got watered down or even ignored.

[Cha]

20. Kerry won NH in 2004 and I think New Hampshirians are

smart enough to see through mccain's latest fascade.

[enough already]

6. They're still going to try to steal the election

We have to stop the fuckers this time.

[BrklynLiberal]

17. "if they can get these voters to the polls he will have an advantage. "

AND if they can guarantee that these votes will be counted!!!!!!!

[Patiod]

18. I bet a big chunk of that 1/4 million Rep-to-Dem change in PA

was in the Southeast.

Goin' Blue, baby!

[samuraiguppy]

21. Obama knows how to

get people to the polls. DONT FUCK with a community organizer

[rainbow4321]

29. One of the Obama groups in my county brought in someone from our county

election office to teach people about voter registration and then we all got sworn in as deputy registrars for the county.

What THAT translates into is people who became deputized can do neighborhood blockwalks or voter registration drives ANYWHERE, any time and register people to vote on-the-spot.

Pick the right demographics of where the drive/blockwalk is held, and there could be a goldmine of new voters (for Obama).

[Thrill]

23. This is why Ploffe continues to tell people to stop listening to the Polls

[rainbow4321]

24. Texas Voter Registration Rate Near Record Levels

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6715

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/09/voter_cards_pou.html

Voter registration in Texas will set an all-time high before the Oct. 6 registration deadline arrives for the November general election.

The state had 12.6 million voters registered for the March primary.

"We are confident that number will hit 13 million or higher," Texas elections director Ann McGeehan said Friday morning.

And that was an understatement. By late Friday afternoon, election officials had already tallied more than 13 million registered voters. The voter registration record of 13.1 million was set for the 2004 presidential election.

Mail delivery of voter registration cards over the past few days have come in boxes weighing 20 to 30 pounds

[grantcart]

25. Plouffe said that they have identified 600,000 AA in Florida that did not vote in 2004

[ProSense]

26. Wonder why?

Vote suppression?

[WCGreen]

27. They are down a million becaue a lot of republcans took out Dem

ballots in the primary to vote for Hillary.

I would be that number is a large chunck of the newly registered democrats.

[Hutzpa]

28. I'm glad this is coming out now

this should be sent to Keith, once its out there
and people start realizing that the polls are spin
polls, then will should be in good shape.