I was just taking a peek at the polls...

[Frisbee]

I just took a look at the numbers at pollster.com and electoral-vote.com. One thing really caught my eye at electoral-vote.com. Right now they are showing Obama 301 to McPOW 224 in the electoral vote count. Even if you only give Obama the Strong Dem (151) and Weak Dem (109) He has 260, which puts him within 10 electoral votes of the 270 needed. That means even if he only got 1/4 of the remaining Barely Dem (41) and Exactly Tied (13) he's over the top. But THAT'S not what caught my eye. They have a link that shows how the map looked on the same date in 2004. In 2004 * was leading Kerry 275-247. Even if Kerry got ALL of the Strong (109), Weak (102) and Barely (36) Dem PLUS the Tied (16) he still needed to somehow snatch 7 more votes from republican states. Not only are things turned around this time, but Obama is in MUCH better position right now than * was. Things will changes between now and Nov. 4th, that we know, but the numbers are VERY encouraging. We can't be complacent, we know the republicans will do everything they can to win this election, legal or not. But right now, this is Obama's election to win or lose, and I think he has people every bit as smart as the republicans working for him, and the debates should be another chance for Barack and Joe to shine. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic folks, and it's a nice feeling to have!

[justiceischeap]

1. It could very well be that Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college (eom)

[Mz Pip]

6. I would rather not see that happen

It would just lead to additional divisiveness. Turn out is key so hopefully the Dems are more motivated this time around.

[justiceischeap]

8. No one wants to see it happen but it's very likely that it could. That's all I'm saying. (eom)

[Youphemism]

13. An electoral college/popular vote split electing Obama would fit with other ironies of the season...

Good or bad, that scenario would dovetail nicely with the historical ironies we keep seeing during this race, which almost seems to be twisting regularly in a way to make the candidates -- especially McCain, but both of them -- eat their words, especially in having to defend that which they once attacked.

Though I agree that scenario is one we'd rather avoid, it *would* be interesting to see how Republicans who defended the electoral college in 2000 would react, and how Democrats who attacked the system would respond.

For those who don't like the electoral college, this outcome might get more bipartisan support against it. I have the (unpopular here, I'm betting) opinion that the electoral college is necessary to keep the candidates from pandering only to large population centers at the expense of rural areas (and subsequently their environments).

So for me, that's just another reason a split election result would be bad. But I know there are a lot of people who disagree with me who might consider that a silver lining.

[endthewar]

21. It is NOT very likely that it could. Obama has consistently led in the national polls.

And in a presidential election, winning by a mere 5 points is considered a landslide victory.

[Arkana]

16. God help us.

I don't want to be on the other side of Election 2000 II: Election 2000 Reloaded.

[TygrBright]

22. Won't happen. If the popular vote looks that close, they'll be able to steal the election. n/t

[unblock]

25. based on shrub's precedent, that would mean a MANDATE and would make obama KING OF THE WORLD!!!!

sorta.

[Marsala]

29. Shrub sure talked tough but blew all his "political capital"

on attempted Social Security reform that was unwanted totally unnecessary. Hopefully Obama's health care reform will go better.

[stanwyck]

37. I don't think anyone has a clue about what is going to happen

this election. Including me. But that doesn't keep any of us from speculating. My take is that we are going to be very surprised at the turnout. The numbers and the voters themselves. People who have never voted, will vote this time. And who we are as a country has shifted, without any of us realizing what this will mean on election day. We now have more unmarried people in our country than married. How does that affect the GOP's constant drumbeat of family values? What resonates most with single people? Our nation's middle class, for the first time in our country's history, has decreased. More people at the top. More people at the bottom. Fewer in the middle. Plus, America is increasingly urban and increasingly Hispanic. Yet, the pundits continue to regale us with wisdom gleaned from campaigns dating back to the '60's. (I'm talking about you, Pat Buchanan).
We don't know what is going to happen.
But I will totally amazed if Obama loses the popular vote as you suggest. My prediction is he's going to have a significant popular vote win.

[tekisui]

2. Mcpow has to run the board on the big swings,

and actually take over Obama in some of his places. Obama simpy has to block one big swing.

He is in a good position. And, he is working his ass off to strengthen it.

[C_U_L8R]

3. That's exactly why the Republicans are peeing in the pool

They are totally freaked by the knowledge they are gonna lose
so they're doing the only thing they know.... ruining it for everyone

[berni_mccoy]

4. This is the best Graph from EV.com:

This graph shows the true state of the election:



The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.




Here's the same graph from 2004:

[speedoo]

7. Yes, that is a very telling graph.

It shows the real state of the race, not this "tie" hogwash the MSM keeps selling.

It also explains why McSame had to go to his Hail Mary Palin choice.

[Hokie]

10. Nice job

You confirmed my belief that this is not at all a replay of 2004. it is gratifying to see that the RNC is appearing to be a dud.

[Blondiegrrl]

23. Wow, that's beautiful!

How bizarre that Reagan's death triggered a spike for the Rethugs. I guess they were feeling all sentimental. :eyes:

[pnorman]

26. That Swift-Boat slime was VERY effective against Kerry that year, and he never fully recovered.

In hindsight, he no doubt realizes that he should have responded instantly, and FORCEFULLY. But, as we're now seeing, Obama does NOT let such things slide. But he hasn't done anything so far, that could be regarded as "hitting below the belt".

There is NO room for complacency, but I'm feeling very confident about Obama and Biden!

pnorman

[regnaD kciN]

38. A few very interesting things about that 2004 graph...

First, the importance of Hollywood. Look at the huge Kerry jump (and Bush dive) around the time of the release of F9/11. Who says Michael Moore can't stir things up (and in our favor)?

Second, although most people will hold out the "swiftboating" as what sunk Kerry, the fact is, in the weeks after the ad was released, his lead actually went up. Instead, it appears that something caused Kerry's total to nose-dive (with his EV total dropping from around 252 to 124) within a few days in middle-late August, even though Bush's total really didn't gain much at the time himself. Can anyone remember anything dramatic that happened at that time?

Finally, after regaining most of the ground from that collapse, there was another drop for Kerry and a corresponding Bush gain that appears to have started right around...you guessed it...9/11. This time, the drop went on for about two weeks, and only started turning up rather sharply, for whatever reason, just before the first debate. Kerry is widely considered to have won all three debates; however, he appears to have lost ground (quite dramatically in the first case) immediately after each of them.

In any event, Obama's graph certainly looks better. A word of caution, though: if you stopped the 2004 graph in mid-August, the result would look not all that much unlike this year. Thereafter, things started shifting rather wildly. While we've certainly passed beyond that point this year, don't discount the possibility that the vicissitudes of the campaign might not cause a similar roller-coaster ride for some or all of the next two months.

[holiday]

5. thanks I needed that re-assurance

I sure hope you are right. and now I really think mccain picked palin as a distraction because he is a coward and knew he was no match for obama

[ourbluenation]

9. almost exact same results at fivethirtyeight.com. people obsess over national polls...

which mean nothing really, it's all about the electoral vote. we're sitting in a very good position. very good indeed.

[abumbyanyothername]

11. I hate to say this because its not party line (on age issue)

but McCain is not going to be able to hold or attract anyone else as the campaign wears on.

His age is just going to keep dragging him down and down and down.

For whatever reason it is just more difficult to maintain enthusiasm for someone who is >70 than for someone who is <50.

McCain also has other, much more glaring and problematic, weaknesses, but this one is simply insurmountable. There is nothing he can do to turn back the clock.

[Mz Pip]

12. One of the things I noticed

since post convention is that McCain really looks very old trotting around next to perky Sarah. It's like he's an after thought. Or a chaperone.

It's all about her and that makes him look weak. IMHO.

[Lorentz]

18. It IS all about her, you're correct.

We've been warned to look out for McCain's VP pick for precisely the reason that he (or she, ultimately) is a backdoor Presidential candidate who needn't pass any primary or smell test. This election is Obama versus Palin, make no mistake about that. It's "youth and change" being offered from both sides of the aisle.

I don't don the tin-foil hat too often, but here's how I see this as being a deeper plan. I have major doubts that McCain will serve out his first term if elected. He's old *now*, and this job ages you twice as fast (compare pics of any President before and after their first term). They now have a candidate who's youthful, charismatic, "hip", and can potentially have a "hypnotic" effect on the electorate (e.g. MILF!, "she's hot", etc...).

So, Nov 2008: McCain/Palin wins, McCain steps down with two years, Palin serves out his term. She runs in 2012 as an incumbent -- no arguments about her experience there -- for her first official term as President, then runs again in 2016. America is swept up in the fascination and awe (and "novelty") of this woman President, and the idiots elect her for an unprecedented 10 years as President.

Let's hope this is preventable!

[Mz Pip]

19. Should that senario happen

she will take this country further down the toilet than it already is. I'd rather not wait until 2012 to start the process of digging out of this sewer.

[creature of habit]

24. i agree^^

The interest is about Palin. It's possible McCain might not even live out his first term in office. They want her as President, not McCain.

[CarbonDate]

36. There won't be a country left after two years of Palin.

But I won't be here to worry about it. I'll be in Australia, working towards citizenship.

[Bullet1987]

14. If Obama can hold Michigan and New Hampshire

Essentially win the Kerry states...he's MOST LIKELY the next President. Snatching up 10 EV will not eb hard.

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Good point

Those two states appear the most vulnerable of the Kerry states.

Obama needs to maintain the national poll lead of at least 2-3 points. Nothing else really matters. The states will naturally fall in line.

[jazzjunkysue]

15. I think it's even better: The GOP is staying home nov 4th.

That's why polls don't work: They don't ever, ever tell you who will show up to pull the lever. Obama's got voters escited to vote for the first time in a long time. They'll all be there.

[Arkana]

17. I wonder if the Palin buzz will last two more months.

Sure, she's an attractive tag now, but I'm betting her luster will start to fade when McCain starts acting "moderate" again.

You don't vote for the veep--you vote for the ticket leader, and that's McCain.

[jazzjunkysue]

20. Like a firecracker. It's all down hill. Just the drip drip drip of scandals.

[amborin]

27. dems need a HUGE TURNOUT

to counter the 95% rethug vote

[Eric J in MN]

28. Most state polls were done before the Republican Convention.

We're going to need to wait until late September for most states to have post-Republican Convention polls.

[writes3000]

30. And then we're going to need to wait until after the first debate, the VP debate....

the second debate, the third debate, the October surprise.

In other words, every poll is just a snapshot of where have just been.

No one is saying the election is over or it will be easy. I appreciate the positive energy of people seeing hope and still working hard for it.

[flamingdem]

32. thanks for that! nt

[okieinpain]

33. that's the one good thing about obama right now, he's not fighting

any bad publicity right now. mccain bounce is all due to people wanting to look at the cute chick.

[barack the house]

34. Exactly the math is totally in his favor and I think he'll get both stats.

[mucifer]

35. we still haven't gotten the full palin bump from the rnc