The Daily Widget – Tues 9/9 – O-300, M-238 – Virginia and Ohio Switch (Again)

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

It’s certainly not the first time, and it probably won’t be the last. Virginia and Ohio have been swinging back and forth from one candidate to the other all season long. That’s why they’re called swing states.

Both Survey USA and the new hybrid of Fox News and Rasmussen (lol, fitting) have Obama at 47% and McCain at 49% in Virginia. This is only a two-point swing to the right since just before the conventions. Here’s how Virginia has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):


Foxmussen shows Obama trailing McCain by 7 points in Ohio, and this is a 9-point swing to the right in the five days since the CNN/Time poll showed Obama up 2 there. McCain held a very slight lead before the conventions, so a swing to the right was expected. Here’s how Ohio has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):


Three other polls were conducted by Foxmussen: Obama leads by three in Colorado (a move to the left!); Obama leads by 2 in Pennsylvania; and Florida is all tied up at 48. Survey USA polled Washington and found Obama leading by 4, and PPP shows Obama leading by 1 in Michigan. Obama’s record for today’s polls is 4-3-1, not bad at all. But for the time being, Obama’s electoral vote projection falls 28 EVs today to 300.

Many of these polls are part of Obama’s Eighteen. The tracking for polls in these eighteen states as a group is now showing McCain with a slight advantage (see Figure 5c below). Not too surprising. What’s heartening, though, is that Obama needs only one-third of the electoral votes from these 18 states to pull off an Electoral College win.

Obama still maintains a lead in the popular vote count from the state polls. His lead has diminished to about 360,000 nationwide as McCain’s bounce is being seen in the states mentioned above. Obama’s popular vote count is higher now than it has been in a month (see Section 4 below), yet McCain’s popular vote count is at its highest point since last winter.

Both the Wigand set of states and Obama’s Eighteen drop about 2.5% today in trading on Intrade. Virginia and Ohio are both trading at 50.00 even. The biggest drop came from New Mexico, which fell 9.40 today to 65.00 (I couldn’t tell you why, it doesn’t make sense to me). New Hampshire and Colorado both fell about 6 points each.


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 48, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 2.9, 1147 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 51, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 717 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

[mmonk]

1. Thanks.

It should be interesting to watch the numbers after the debates.

[phrigndumass]

3. yw :)

I'm sure Obama will see a nice bump up from the debates.

:donut: Good morning, mmonk! :hi:

[mmonk]

10. Good morning.

Great work as always.
:hi:

[maseman]

2. Wish they would take Nader off of polling in Ohio and add Barr

Nader is not and will not be on the ballot in Ohio and Bob Barr will be there.

[phrigndumass]

5. Interesting, I wasn't aware of that. That'll help!

Foxmussen did poll for both Nader and Barr in Ohio, but Barr was receiving 0%. I wonder what the deadline is to be on the ballot in Ohio ...

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[maseman]

46. August 21st was the deadline according to a

document I looked up and posted here a few days ago. I also looked at another document that was updated Sept. 5th that showed the only people on the ballot were McCain/Obama/Barr.

[Dawgs]

4. Don't like OH numbers, but none are really bad considering the RNC bounce was still in play.

Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

7. Looking at the string of Ohio polls, Rasmussen is the only pollster showing it red

All four of the red (or lean red) polls for Ohio since June 1 were from Rasmussen.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/08-oh-pres-ge-mvo.php

Either Rasmussen knows something the other pollsters don't about Ohio, or he's way off. I'm guessing he's way off :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Dawgs]

16. Agree about Rasumussen. He seems to be consistently off from the others in every one of his polls.

Thanks for the link.

[DarthDem]

6. "Foxmussen"

LOL. Thanks. I wish more people would start calling ScottyRazz what he is - - a Gooper shill. The McClown number in Ohio was probably inflated (via weighting games) to give McCoot a small lead when Obama "closes" there. (I think Obama is ahead.)

Guide to interpreting Raspberry polls: Add +1.5 to +2 to Obama's numbers if the state leans to the right. Otherwise, add +4 to Obama's numbers. And in Ohio, where NO OTHER POLL BUT RAZZ HAS SHOWN A MCCLOWN LEAD IN A LOOOOONG TIME, add +4 to +5 to Obama's numbers.

These polls are outstanding news - - particularly that Colorado number. Looking very good.

[phrigndumass]

9. I noticed that about Rasmussen's Ohio polls ...

:crazy:

I broke down and paid for a subscription to the premium member service at Rasmussen to see his crosstabs. He doesn't show race demographics for his 500 LV polls, the reason of course being because the margin of error on those demographics would be extremely high. Keeping the samples at 500 allows him to play the weighting games.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[DarthDem]

11. Yup!

Good, smart interpretation on your part. And there's some money I don't mind ScottyRazz getting (we should all give you a buck!) - - so that we can see through his ridiculous nonsense. Another thing - - these are one-day flash polls, which has to lower the confidence interval, right?

Feeling really, really confident about Colorado now. And in the midst of the Gooper Fascist Rally bounce, too!

Good morning to you!! :hi: :-)

[phrigndumass]

14. One day period or five day period, it's still a small sample

But Rasmussen shows a 95% confidence level anyway, which is accurate but it doesn't increase "my" confidence :)

:hi:

[DarthDem]

17. Right

He always says the confidence interval is 95% - - I just wonder how representative of the population of the states in question he could get with 500 respondents in a one-day sample? (I'm out of my depth here and looking for you to bail me out! :-)) Shouldn't *both* of those factors lower the CI?

[phrigndumass]

19. In an ideal world, both of those factors would lower it

It's the representative population that drives the confidence level for the most part. He has the representative population correct (male/female, minority groups, age groups, party weight, etc). Even a 100-sample could produce a 95% confidence level, but the margin of error would be very high.

What I look for in the crosstabs is an adequate margin of error for every subgroup as well as the poll as a whole. The whole is the sum of its parts! A smaller sample doesn't produce those results without a much higher error rate.

Here's an example ... African-Americans make up about 12% of the population (varying by state). If 500 people are polled, a correct sampling for this subgroup would be 60 people. The margin of error for a 60-person sample is between 10% and 20% (or higher, depending on other weights). A 50/50 split for the candidates from this sampling could really be a 70/30 split.

:hi:

[DarthDem]

21. Got It

You rule - - thanks. :hi:

[LynneSin]

8. When will DUers get it - THESE are the numbers we need to focus on

Sure by time the electorial vote is all straightened out it'll be something like 48-47, but we don't elect by popular vote!

[phrigndumass]

12. Agreed :)

Winning the popular vote doesn't make you President (right, Al Gore?). Tracking the national polls only shows us the national mood, which is helpful but somewhat irrelevant to the outcome of the election unless it's a blowout.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Blondiegrrl]

13. I totally agree, but ...

Those numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania are way too close for comfort, IMO. We can win without Ohio, but I was counting on Obama holding on to the other two states.

[LynneSin]

25. Pennsylvania will go Obama, I've worked that state enough times to know it's in the bag

SEIU will give all their employees the day off to work the polls in Philadelphia and their members will go to the sections of Philadelphia that the out-of-towners helping with the election wouldn't dare go.

This is how Ed Rendell beat Bob Casey Jr. back in 2002 - if you can get 50% turnout in Philadelphia the rest of the state can't compete with that.

[Blondiegrrl]

28. Good to know. Thanks! n/t

[totodeinhere]

42. Agreed. I'm very nervous that it seems so close in so many battleground states.

[phrigndumass]

15. It's okay to recommend a thread, even if the news is not-so-good :)

Five recs puts this thread in front of more readers, so they don't have to hunt for it. Thanks!

(okay, I'm done pandering for recs now, lol)

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

24. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[Zech Marquis The 2nd]

18. Virginia....and Colorado

I really want Obama to win here in Virginia, what a huge emotional lift that'll be! So Im signing up to see what I can do to make that happen. I hope he can still take Colorado as well!

[phrigndumass]

20. Welcome to DU, Zech!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

22. Good morning, phrigndumass!

I'm too tired and been :puke: on too many times for witty comments, but I'll definitely give you a k&r for all of your hard work.

:hi:

:bounce: <---LMD who is back to feeling fine!

[phrigndumass]

23. Hope you have a strong stomach :)

If I see someone else :puke: I'll :puke: too ...

:bounce: :bounce: for both of you!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[dccrossman]

26. K & R

Appreciate your work and analysis pulling all this information together.

[phrigndumass]

31. Thanks dc :)

:hi:

[RNdaSilva]

27. How 'bout a few recs here?

[Ichingcarpenter]

30. Done..... some of the best analysis on the web

He's our Chuck Todd

[phrigndumass]

32. (pssst ... Happy birthday 3 days late!)

:party: :party: :hi:

[unblock]

29. phrig -- a minor request:

for those of us who have great difficulties with colors, could you please make augment your color-coded poll scheme to include some other coding? shapes or patterns are far easier to distinguish (for me, anyway).

thanks!

[phrigndumass]

33. My apologies for not thinking of that! :)

It should be a simple solution, and I'll be happy to work on that.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

34. Quick Question ...

Would it help to list the lines in order of highest to lowest in the Legend below (or beside) each chart?

Here's an example ...



There are four lines on the graph above. The top line is "Phrig" (listed first in the Legend at the bottom), the second-highest line is "538.com" (listed second in the Legend at the bottom), the third-highest line is "Electoral-Vote.com" (listed third in the Legend at the bottom), and the lowest is the straight line showing how much is a majority on that chart (listed last).

This would be an easier fix, since there are too many data points to place an X or an O on the lines.

Let me know, happy to do this for you!

:hi:

[unblock]

35. that would help and i can see that's an easy fix

in the graphs, it's easy to tell the dashed line from the solids.
line thiknesses might work, or other patterns may help (dotted, dot/dash, etc.) but that could get easily become a mess.

labeling the lines on the left would help most of the time. however, as in the example graph, if the lines all mush together (see around 6/16, it's not easy to see where each comes out the other side.

i was originally thinking just about the colored squares where one state poll shifts a state from weak obama to strong obama or whatever -- hard for me to figure those out.

thanks for the tweaking, your work is much appreciated and i'll be able to appreciate it all the more!

[phrigndumass]

36. I'll be happy to change the colored squares :)

Easy ... I'll add a forward slash, a backward slash, etc, or a set of numbers in the colored squares. Thanks for telling me about this!

:hi:

[unblock]

38. excellent, can't wait!

[phrigndumass]

39. Try this on for size :)

Let me know if the numbers in the boxes are too dark or too light (Scale at the bottom of this reply).

Both Survey USA and the new hybrid of Fox News and Rasmussen (lol, fitting) have Obama at 47% and McCain at 49% in Virginia. This is only a two-point swing to the right since just before the conventions. Here’s how Virginia has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):


Foxmussen shows Obama trailing McCain by 7 points in Ohio, and this is a 9-point swing to the right in the five days since the CNN/Time poll showed Obama up 2 there. McCain held a very slight lead before the conventions, so a swing to the right was expected. Here’s how Ohio has been polling since June 1 (see Section 2 below for the scale):




2. NEW STATE POLLS

Colorado Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)

[unblock]

41. nice!!!!!

:bounce:

:applause:

[writes3000]

37. Just wanted to thank you for your insight and your hard work. A wealth of info here.

And I learn something new every time I read one of your posts.

[phrigndumass]

40. Aw, thanks! :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

43. Evening kick ... I'm seeing 281 EV for Obama after Tuesday's polls

Down another 19 for Wednesday's post.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. I can tell you why the trading price moved on New Mexico

The national polls and presidential trading price changed decisively and the New Mexico price was out of line with the national percentage, considering how closely New Mexico has mirrored the national vote every recent cycle.

Speculators aren't going to be dense enough to wait for state polls as verification. At that point the value is long gone. You're trying to grab advantage position for maneuverability. That's what people don't seem to realize about political wagering, or gambling in general. It's hardly a matter of betting on what you think will happen and being dependent on the outcome. That's what novice wagerers do. The professional gamblers will snag huge amount of contracts if they think a major move in the line is imminent. Then they can play the other side later.

The idea is to always make good bets. It doesn't matter what you expect to happen. If you consistently beat the price you'll come out ahead in the long run.

New Mexico is always within a handful of points of the national margin. So when the national margin shifts toward McCain, you can't allow New Mexico to sit there at 75/25, or wherever it was.

IMO, New Mexico has moved somewhat left, as indicated by the 24% liberals in the 2006 exit poll, an uptick. Once you get to 24%, states vote Democratic on the presidential level without exception. But I can understand why the Intrade speculators wouldn't allow the New Mexico price to remain out of hand.

It's the same fundamental on other Intrade shifts today. Virtually every swing state or so-called "lean McCain" state has seen a move of many percentage points red. That's due to national polling.

[phrigndumass]

45. Very interesting! :)

Thanks for sharing that, Awsi.

Wisconsin will probably be one of the next ones to drop then? It's at 79 as of this morning.

:hi:

[Kukesa]

47. Late night KICK (even though Ohio's pink). n/t