Former Pollster Pleads Guilty to Fabricating Results Of Polls In 2004-On Behalf Of Bush & Others

[kpete]

I know this has been posted before - but since we are reading the polls so "closely", I thought we should ponder the "talk to cats & dogs", kpete

September 7, 2006
Former Pollster Pleads Guilty to Fabricating Results

Tracy Costin, the former owner of polling company DataUSA Inc., entered a guilty plea to conspiracy to commit mail fraud for fabricating the results of polls the company conduct on behalf of, among others, President Bush in 2004. Costin was indicted along with a DataUSA manager in March 2005 on fraud and conspiracy charges, and the indictment (here) alleged that they instructed "DataUSA employees to alter survey data and to fabricate surveys and otherwise falsify their contents in order to meet job quotas and deadlines. The term 'talk to cats and dogs' was one of the terms used by the defendants to instruct employees to fabricate surveys." It's not clear if any of the alleged feline or canine poll respondents would have been witnesses at the trial. An AP story (here) discusses Costin's guilty plea.


http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/whitecollarcrime_blog/2006/09/former_pollster.html
http://elections-o.channel.aol.com/elections/story/_a/pollster-pleads-guilty-to-making-up/20060907093409990001

[curious one]

1. I have been telling you guys not to believe in polls.

[cliffordu]

2. ME TOO!!!! Lies, damned lies and statistics.....

[seabeyond]

3. me three.... why, cause of 2004. hey, go figure. they have to make it look good when stolen

[kansasblue]

4. Just another corporate Republican tool.

We need our own independent polling.

[azmouse]

5. Why am I not surprised by this?

[Gormy Cuss]

6. Costin faked polling data commissioned by the campaigns for the campaigns.

This was internal polling data, not intended for national release. It's quite a different animal from the Gallups and news agency polls if for no other reason than there is no opportunity for independent review of the methods and results.

What DataUSA did could have damaged the campaigns of Bush, Lieberman, and others. DataUSA lowballed the price and then couldn't come up with the interview quotas.
The campaigns went with the lowest bidder thinking they were getting a bargain. Hah!

[Patiod]

7. They didn't fabricate to skew anything - it was for $$$

"made up" surveys are cheaper than getting an actual complete.

As the previous poster noted, it would have hurt the Bush campaign more than anyone else, because it was polls the campaign was using for their own information.

This happens ocassionally - people cut corners.

[Greyskye]

8. If it can be bought

it will be bought.

:kick: & :grr:

[AtomicKitten]

9. Well, that explains a lot.

K&R

[progressivebydesign]

10. Thank you! I've been trying to warn people about a poll CNN uses, but no one listens.

I beg people to stop posting the polls here lately with such breathless concern!!!

For example: CNN has been widely quoting and using the Diageo/Hotline poll. I had never heard of it, yet CNN and others have been quoting it like it was some BIG thing!! Well folks, I dug around yesterday and it wasn't pretty.

CNN is quoting a poll that is being conducted by a REPUBLICAN PR FIRM (financial dynamics). Yep.. they specialize in "crisis management" and "PR" and "Media", and their Chairman is Oliver Pawle. The former Treasurer of UBS (ya, that Swiss bank where all the Bushies put their $$$ overseas. And.. as luck would have it, Phil Gramm (McCain's Nat'l Co-Chair and attack dog) lists UBS as a MAJOR CLIENT for his lobbyist work (during the time Pawle was in the executive cirlce at UBS)

To recap. CNN has been quoting a poll from Financial Dynamics, run by Oliver Pawle who is a business associate of Phil Gramm, who is the Nat'l Co-Chair for McCain.

Gallup has also been shown during the last election to have major republican ties.

I don't buy ANY polls anyway, anymore, because they have been sampling 800 people, out of millions, they have never addressed the fact that the type of people that are sitting home and have land lines, are NOT the people that would typically vote for Dems. Also, has everyone forgotten that the pollsters have been 'oversampling' groups to get their desired result? It happened during the primary. Unless any of us are statisticians, or polling experts, there is no way to dissect the polls to determine if they're accurate.

Plus.. it's all about Electoral College AND the swing states (regardless of the 50-state strategy)

[juajen]

11. Seems to me you're saying that pugs don't use cell phones? NT

[autorank]

12. I'm shocked. k*r

[Roland99]

13. this should be the top story on the front page!!

[liberalla]

14. K&R

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. There Are Democratic Pollsters In The Field

So we have a benchmark polls to compare other polls to...