Gallup: McCain (49) Obama (44)

[malik flavors]

McCain led Obama by five percentage points in Monday's report on the strength of a six-point increase in the percentage of voters choosing him on the presidential trial heat following the Republican National Convention. McCain's 49% support in today's three-day rolling average, based on Sept. 6-8 interviewing, is unchanged from Monday's report and matches McCain's high mark in Gallup tracking to date.

Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking. McCain also had a 4-point lead over Obama among registered voters in the separate USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted this past weekend.

The GOP convention has clearly altered the structure of the race for now, which had shown Obama consistently ahead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates for all but a few days from the time he clinched the nomination in early June until the end of last week. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 -- the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.

Thus, if Obama regains the lead over the next month, he will be bucking the historical trend. Admittedly, most of the elections since 1964 were not as competitive as this year's election has been, but even in closely contested election years of 1988 (George H.W. Bush led by just four points after the GOP convention that year), 2000, and 2004 the post-conventions leader usually held that position one month later. However, for the most part past conventions were completed much earlier than this year's late August and early September conventions, and this year the first debate between the presidential candidates will take place just three weeks after the last convention. That could give Obama an opportunity to change the race in his favor if he hasn't done so before then. -- Jeff Jones

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx

[mvd]

1. Gallup predicted the numbers would go in McSame's favor

and they've stayed that way even more than in Rasmussen's poll. My suspicions are up - we had a great couple days in the news cycle, yet no change?

[Curtland1015]

6. Well, we had a great newsday yesterday. So really, if it helped us...

We wouldn't see it until tomorrow.

[mvd]

14. I think we've had more than one

But we'll see what happens tomorrow. I'm doubting this poll.

[thestrugglecontinues]

24. National polls don't mean anything

The next president will be elected on electoral votes. If Obama wins New York state by 60-40 he still only gets the number of electoral votes held by New York state.

If the surge in national polls to McCain is occurring in Kentucky, Texas etc., it mean nothing. If it is happening in Ohio and Pennsylvania, that could be trouble.

Wait for the state polls, there haven't been too many since before the conventions started.

[democracy1st]

2. these polls are going to drive you guys crazy

[bdamomma]

12. that is why I try not to pay them no mind.

[progressivebydesign]

3. Why.. it's almost as if people ENJOY posting these poll threads.. hmmm. n/t

[writes3000]

5. Ding, ding, ding. Fortunately this board has options to fix that problem. nt

[BeyondGeography]

4. Message: The debates will say a lot about who wins

I believe that. If Obama outshines the experienced older guy, he'll win. I'm more worried about BS media spin than anything else.

[Road Scholar]

20. I'm counting on Biden "hog-tying" the moose queen without

looking like a bully.

[dkf]

7. I thought he was up by like 10 or something.

Guess not.

[RDANGELO]

8. Look at the polls coming out on the swing states.

Gallup's numbers are showing a total disconnect from those polls. Ironically Gallup doesn't do state polls.

[Sensitivity]

9. Well, hope the days of wishful-thinking are over. Much hard work ahead

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. I'm sure you'll be contributing diligently, as usual

[americanstranger]

11. What happened to that HUGH convention bounce?

You know, the one everyone was so concerned about the other day?

Obama was written off for dead over the weekend by some people here. The Chorus Of Doom was in full cry because McCain had a 10-point lead in some half-assed tracking poll.

Well, today we're back within the margin of error.

Say it with me - Tracking Polls = Worthless.

That is all.

- as

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. The 10 point lead wasn't in a tracking poll

It was in a snapshot poll, and referred to their likely voter category. Since their "registered voter" category had McCain up 50-46, their "Likely Voter" numbers were very obviously based on a model that discounted new registrants. But it wasn't a tracking poll.

Just sayin'

[tpi10d]

13. height of mccain bounce n/t

Ras and others showing tied. This is about what I expected before the republican convention, before the moose appointment, etc.

[WI_DEM]

15. who cares?

[VolcanoJen]

17. ARG says Obama 47, McCain 46; Rasmussen has it tied.

Hold onto your hats, DU. And work like HELL.

[jefferson_dem]

18. Obama's 47 dropped off and McLame's 45 dropped off.

Three-day rolling average remained the same. Hmmm...

We will have a tied race in Gallup by the end of the week, I predict.

[Jello Biafra]

19. I just don't get it.....

How could anyone vote for McSame and Palin? Are these polls made up? Are they asking only Repukes?

[Wapsie B]

21. Daily tracking polls are as worthless as nuts on a priest.

Next topic.

[mzmolly]

22. This is why we need to hold our convention after the R's

"While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 -- the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term."

However the electoral map is still looking good for us.

[Jennicut]

25. We can't, the part in power always goes second.

I am not worried at all. All other polls are showing that there is pretty much a tie going on. McLame's bounce is not lasting, its deflating. Gallup tracking poll is a rolling average so its changes happen slower...it should be even by the end of the week. So much for all the chicken littles running around. And yes, Obama is going on the attack now. I just looked at Yahoo news and one article states that Obama is turning the heat up on McCain and Palin so I don't want to hear anymore complaints.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. It looks like McCain's bounce is finished...

Now we'll see if he comes back down. My guess, tomorrow Obama is 45 and McCain is 47.