Okay, here’s why Obama is going to win big

[Cyrano]

Forget “Hockey-Mom-Goddess” Palin. Forget her running mate who stands in front of green backdrops. There aren’t enough fundies, rednecks, billionaires, or thieves to put them over the top this time around.

Every Dem and Rethug knows that the Democrats are going to win huge majorities in the house and senate. Yet, while accepting this, the Rethugs are back down in their sewer, lying their asses off, convinced that there aren’t enough people in this country who will vote for a black man for president.

And, yes, there are many Americans who are too stupid for words. And the corporate media will do whatever it takes to get someone they can control back into the White House. And the Rethug tactics for stealing elections are already in full swing.

But here’s why Obama is going to win. What’s happening this time is happening beneath the radar. We here online are in touch with reality. We don’t rely on TV news or the American press to supply us with information or truth. And there are many millions of us.

Are there enough of us to put Obama into the Oval Office? Probably not. But what happens when you combine us with the millions of other disaffected people who have been screwed for far too long?

Young people don’t usually vote, but this year they’re going to turn out as never before. Millions of Dilberts sitting in their cubicles know that their bosses are exploiting them and they too are going to turn out big time. Those who can’t find a job, but are no longer included in the unemployment statistics are going to flood to the polls to seek a reckoning. A vast majority of women, the largest voting bloc of all, are insulted by the idea of Sarah Palin being held up as “Wonder Woman.” And then add in that every “minority” group in America is going to get to the polls come hell or high water.

On November 5th, the pundits will be sitting there shaking there heads, wondering what the hell happened. They will be stunned by the fact that all their statistics, pandering and propaganda didn’t hold sway. And they will still not understand that their day is past and that the web is supplying enough informed voters to help form a majority.

Remember this post on the day after the election. A new day is about to dawn.

[rocktivity]

1. All Obama needs are the young, women, the majority of independents

and embarrassed former Bushies to turn out in peak numbers.

:headbang:
rocknation

[cliffordu]

55. ....And radical assholes like me.......

[OneGrassRoot]

2. My 15-year-old daughter said...

if the 14-17 y/o crowd could vote, it would be a "no brainer." It would be a crushing defeat. :)

[Cyrano]

15. Time for the kids to convince their parents to wake up.

Or possibly, these kids are reflecting their parents views. And that means we're going to win in an avalanche.

[OneGrassRoot]

22. My thoughts exactly. I'm actually in a very red area...

so I was surprised when it was her impression that it was no contest, based on the kids around her.

:)

[DangerDave921]

24. Is that a good thing? LOL

I mean -- as a 40-something guy, there is very little advice I would take from a 14 year old!

[OneGrassRoot]

25. I certainly am not taking any advice, but the feedback can be helpful. :) n/t

[secondwind]

3. don't forget the young -- the "un-pollable" young who are using cell phones only

[Shine]

12. Yup, that was gonna be my exact same point, too.

:thumbsup: great minds....


:hi: a belated welcome to DU!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

53. yes it is an unknown

[StrongBad]

4. The same people were getting screwed over in 2004

When polls were tight the young people turnout argument made frequent appearances.

I am hesitant to think that this time is any different, but I would be pleasantly surprised if the younger demographic stepped up and voted.

[Cyrano]

7. You gotta' believe. How do you think the '69 Mets won the World Series?

In 1969, the NY Mets were the biggest joke in the history of baseball. But they had a catcher, (I think his name was Tug McGraw or something similar), and he got going with the meme "You gotta' believe."

Everyone was startled when the Mets actually started winning more than one game in a row. As the season progressed, New Yorkers started to believe.

And then, by some stroke of magic, faith, destiny, or universal whim, they went on to take the pennant and the World Series. And it happened because a city of eight million people believed they could do it.

Now, we've all got to believe that Obama will win and win big. How? It's easy. "You gotta' believe."

[leftynyc]

40. You brought back some very fond memories

I come from a family of Mets fans. I really don't care if Sen Obama wins big or small - just that he wins.

[RoadRage]

31. No Offense Strongbad...

But Kerry does not equal Obama.

I vaugly remember voting for Kerry because he had a (D) next to his name in '04.. but i was hardly a political junkie at the time - and I didn't know anyone else my age (25 at the time) who was voting.

This year - I don't know anyone who ISN'T voting - and I live in bright red nebraska. I think the kiddo's will be coming out this year.. and many of them like Barack. He doesn't remind them of their grandpa... McCane does.

I hope they just bowl over the polls this year!

[StrongBad]

60. I hope you are right!

I am in that age bracket as well and I hope my peers don't fail to show up in November!

[otohara]

56. I Think They Will - Although

the little buggers are hard to find - they move around so much. I called 20-30 year olds in the neighborhood around University of Denver - Out of 114 calls, I only spoke to 4 people. 2 1/2 pages were wrong exchange number all from the university. Many more were wrong numbers and not home.

I hope they have re registered - where ever they are - hopefully in battleground states. The kids don't know about the Secretaries of States. It's kinda scary.

[Magleetis]

5. It is very

probable that you are correct. We all need to contemplate this outcome.

[lapfog_1]

6. I have my theory...

but it flies in the face of what the polls say and what the pundits say.

I live in rural Arizona. Real red state 'murica. Guns and Jesus. The kind of place where rednecks put FAKE bullet hole decals on their brand new pickup trucks.

I have seen a total of TWO McCain bumper stickers. TWO. And one of the nearby towns I frequent is a big military town. I have seen dozens and dozens of Obama bumper stickers. And dozens of Bush/Cheney '04 stickers. I thought that after the Palin announcement or after the convention, I would see a lot more McCain/Palin stickers. After all, there are a lot of fundies around here as well. But, so far, only those two. In the primaries, I saw a *lot* of stickers and yard signs for Romney and a few for Huckabee, none for McCain or Ghouliani.

This is McCain's home state. And the redneck repukes here DON'T LIKE HIM.

I think the polls and the pundits are all bought and paid for. I don't trust any of them.

If we can have a free and fair election this time, I think Obama wins in a landslide.

[MadinMo]

9. Unfortunately I think it is a big IF.

I'm not feeling all warm and fuzzy about the election at all. Its just as probable they will steal the election again this time.

[Cyrano]

19. Obama has 10,000 people "on the ground" in 50 states. That doesn't

mean they can't steal it again, but this time, everyone will know it as a FACT.

[Lorentz]

26. I propose we ignore everyone who says the words "Steal the election" from now on.

Take your paranoid negativity elsewhere. It's counterproductive and you aren't helping anything.

[Cyrano]

27. Ignoring the reality of 2000 and 2004 won't make it go away.

It's not "paranoid negativity." It's dealing with the fact that the swine we are up against are capable of anything.

I believe we are going to win this one by so much that even their thefts won't matter. But that doesn't mean we should be lulled into complacency.

By the way, please read my OP. There's not one iota of "paranoid negativity" in it. We are going to win this one and we are going to win it BIG.

[Lorentz]

62. I wasn't talking to you.

[Lorentz]

28. I propose we ignore everyone who says the words "Steal the election" from now on.

Take your paranoid negativity elsewhere. It's counterproductive and you aren't helping anything.

[Cyrano]

29. "I'm hearing everything twice" -- (From Joseph Heller's "Catch 22.")

Perhaps if you posted your profile, I'd hear it the first time around.

[leftynyc]

41. I have to ask this

What's with the fake bullet hole decals?

[lapfog_1]

45. They want to drive a nice truck. But they want to be rednecks.

The guys with the real bullet holes in their trucks laugh at them. 'course, they don't drive trucks that are less than 10 years old either.

What some "good ole boys" do is drive out somewhere remote (but often not remote enough), park the pickup, hike a ways, and then use the pickup for target practice. usually there are beer bottles involved.

[leftynyc]

46. They shoot at a brand new truck???

Call me an east coast elitest all you want - that sounds monumentally stupid - stupid even if they're shooting at an old truck. For the record, I did go to Arizona State and still do go to Sedona on occasion so I do realize all of Arizona is not quite this crazy.

[lapfog_1]

48. No, the "real" rednecks drive trucks that are 10 - 20 years old

and, yeah, they take them out and shoot them (usually in the side of the pickup bed or the rear gate. Usually they place the now empty beer bottles on the pickup and TRY to shoot those (the pickup is just a target stand). The beer bottles are recently emptied.

The "wanna bees" rednecks drive newer pickups, complete with gun racks, and put these stupid decals on their trucks so it LOOKS like someone shot it up. Trying to be "cool".

The gun culture is really big in these parts. Arizona has both a "holstered carry" and "concealed carry" law. So if you want to, you can strap on your six shooter and go shopping or whatever. It's a tich unnerving to see them walk into the bank while I'm making a deposit. Honestly, the rednecks think they are living in 1890s Arizona or something. To be fair, I'm living about 18 miles from Tombstone, so gun violence is certainly celebrated around these parts.

[MadinMo]

49. They are the same guys who hang the huge fake "balls" on their trailer hitches.

[moc]

47. Similar observations in Collin County Texas (north of Dallas, VERY red).

I see on average 3-4 Obama stickers per day driving around Collin County. I see probably the same number of W'04/Bush-Cheney stickers. I think I've seen ONE McCain sticker in the last 2-3 months.

[Cyrano]

50. You've got to wonder what Molly Ivins would have to say today.

Jeeeez, I miss her.

[AuntPatsy]

8. I agree with you, contrary to what the media wants you to believe, I still have yet to see

one bumper sticker or sign etc for the repugs here in Texas, only Obama and or Ron Paul.

[Cyrano]

11. Same here in southeastern FL.

There are still many people who have Hillary bumper stickers on their cars, but I see virtually no McCain or Palin bumper stickers.

I'm not sure how much a poll of bumper stickers means, but I get the feeling that the majority of reThugs are not happy with their choice.

[AuntPatsy]

21. Oh there is no way they are proud of it, considering the overkill of bush stickers and who proud

they seemed at the time to display those, no mcbush stickers is proof positive they no longer have the same liking...I could care less what the media polls say, its bs if you ask me

[dtotire]

10. Hope you're right n/t

[RichGirl]

13. Obama will win because of the surge.

No...not that surge...the surge of newly registrationed voters which started in the primaries and continues today has been at a record high.

[Shine]

14. Agreed. It's all about GOTV. Very important factoid to remember:

31 million registered Republicans


42 million registered Democrats.....with more comin'!


It ain't rocket science. :D

[JFN1]

16. I wish I had your faith in young people

I heard all of this back in '04, when the young people were supposed to turn out in droves to save us from another 4 years of Bush.

We all know what happened - the young voter turnout was about average. All of those votes we counted on evaporated right before our eyes.

So excuse me for not getting excited over another promise of being saved by young voters. I'll need to see it - to believe it.

That being said, I still think our chances of winning are considerable.

[treestar]

32. IMO it is different this time; the young people are more inspired

Watching Obama's speech yesterday made one realize what a great professor he must have been, too. He's like the coolest professor on campus.

[treestar]

33. Thank you!

The negative nellies willing to cash it in, in early Sept. are getting to be a big drag!

[renate]

51. watch this video and be prepared to weep (in a good way!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvDAiWWuvRg

You may remember that back in February, a county in Texas had one (1) early voting location, the county courthouse; one thousand students from Prairie View A&M marched seven miles to vote in the primary.

Here's the story:
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/02/19/thousands-of-students-march-7-miles-to-vote/

Even the local Fox affiliate did a story on it:
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/MyFox/pages/sidebar_video.jsp?contentId=5814149&version=1&locale=EN-US

The YouTube video gives me chills... not only are kids inspired, they're inspiring!

[Odin2005]

37. The youth turnout has been increasing over the past 8 years.

It's a generational thing. Us Millennials are replacing the apathetic Generation-X in the "young voter" demographic. Low youth turnout was an Xer phenomenon.

[FatDave]

42. This "Xer" has never missed a vote.

Not even midterms.

Before I could vote, when I was 16, I went to Washington DC for the final miles of the Great Peace March for Global Nuclear Disarmament (remember that?) and took part in a big protest at the U.S. Department of Energy HQ the next day.

But generalize all you want, I'll be the first to agree that my generation is made up largely of douchebags and mindless followers.

[RichGirl]

43. The youth came out for Obama in the primaries,

[tilsammans]

17. Thank you for your inspiring post!

We must not forget that the Rethugs are great at creating buzz. They OWN most of the media, so they can say whatever they darn well please and get away with it.

What the Obama/Biden team and all of us need to do is continually hammer home the question, "Is your life now better than it was eight years ago?"

And for 'most everyone I know, that answer is NO.

:kick:

[BluegrassDem]

18. I totally agree with the OP. Obama's campaign is too smart

They've invested so much time and money in almost 2 years of operation to get young people registered and out to vote, and it's worked so far.

Also don't underestimate Latinos and African-Americans. For all the fuss about Palin, she does nothing to help McCain with Latinos.

I still would rather be Obama trying to win the EC than McCain.

[Cosmocat]

23. I agree with the EC math, but it IS going to be close ...

Like him or not, Rs ARE more RELIABLE and steady voters ...

The polls, yeah, some might be cooked a bit, but there are TOO many that are too similar. I don't get it, I really do not, but I DO think this race is and always has been closer than some here might believe - oh, and BTW, race IS a factor. Take it out, and BO's lead would be a little closer to national D polling.

[EffieBlack]

20. Dead on!

[bermudat]

30. Aww! Everything that is happening now, happened prior to elections in 2000

and 2004. It is Deja Vu. DU boards were saying 'of course we will win, the unemployed, women

and young people will see that the Dems are what is best for them.' And what happened? bush won

twice. All the horrible things our government has done, is doing is in the news but people don't

care. Fuck up that was Katrina-don't care. Deregulation by the repugs causing the mortgage crisis

and devaluation of most Americans largest asset-don't care. > trillion dollars and >4K dead in a

war for weapons of mass destruction that were not there-don't care. I cry for this country, cry for

what was and now will never be.

[OwnedByFerrets]

34. I do believe in the young people this time....

I also believe that it can be stolen again. I honestly dont know what to do to stop that from happening for the 3rd time.

[Cyrano]

35. "You gotta' believe."

[trashcanistanista]

36. I agree. I think it's definitely in the bag.

At this point I'm just working to get enough votes to get a big enough lead (20 pts) so they can't steal it. And, of course, to crush them out of existence.

[Imagevision]

38. MTV crowd can be sigificant in voting...

[babylonsister]

39. Wonderful, uplifting post-thank you! nt

[FatDave]

44. I can't let all this "gotta believe" talk pass without at least one reference to Parappa the Rapper

And now there is one. My work here is done.

[Curtland1015]

52. Kick, Rec, it's all in the mind!

:D

[FatDave]

54. NICE!

:thumbsup:

[LuckyLib]

57. Under the radar is the key. Corporate media is just creating their own reality.

and as you say, "the pundits will be sitting there shaking there heads, wondering what the hell happened." I can hardly wait. Old folks in my neighborhood, conservative co-workers, everyone has had it with the Chimp show and the McSame campaign, and putting Palin in to keep our eye off of 8 years of war, waste, and corruption. I'm thinking positive thoughts and working hard to make it happen.

[Cyrano]

58. When Obama wins, the wingnut pundits will no doubt claim that

the election was stolen by "liberal media" lies, and "dope smoking computer hackers" who switched the "real" outcome.

[Geek_Girl]

59. I think you may be right

I hope so anyway

[Stevepol]

61. I agree with your reasoning, but you leave out the voting machines

in your calculus, and I'm afraid Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia, Hart Intercivic, etc. make up a huge block of voters.

How do you pencil them into your equations?

[OneBlueSky]

65. "It's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes." . . . n/t

[Eyes_wide_ open]

63. Ahhh ... one of my own kind

Gotta tell ya, I LOVE how you think. I sometimes feel like an alien that's been dropped on this planet with the rudiments of language but without the ability to make myself understood. I agree with you totally.

We've got to stop listening to the bought and paid for idiot pundits, and their skewered polls, who wouldn't know a fact if it bit them in the ass, much less be able to tell us what it means. People, we need to quit whining about the MSM, yes they are FUBAR, but we can't change that between now and the election. If we can't get our message out that way, we need to get it out other ways. They do not hold the power they once did. Quit listening to them and get out and talk to people. There are way more of us than there are TV stations ... even with cable. After we win, then we can go about making the changes necessary to repair the damage done to the MSM.

It's not nearly as bleak as they would have us believe. And while there are a LOT of hopelessly stupid people out there, everybody that has voted differently than you in the past is not an idiot, many just have different priorities than you. Blue/red, black/white, Democrat/Republican, our country is in such terrible shape that we are ALL(except the very rich) feeling the crunch now. WE have a candidate that "gets it". It's that simple.

[Cyrano]

64. Eyes_wide_open: From your mouth to the ears of

whatever universal awareness and/or intelligence that may exist.