Much of the Palin bounce is likely in heavily red states that aren't in play anyway ...

[Alhena]

Plouffe indicated as much today in talking about how it's just battleground state polls that matter and Obama's numbers look good there.

I expect the Palin effect may mean that McCain carries Oklahoma and Alabama by 30 rather than 25 points, but that 5 point bounce in the polls in those states is irrelevant. I expect that Palin, with her Pentecostal background and social conservatism, will play much better in the Bible Belt than in the Rust Belt, but the latter is much more important for election purposes.

[phleshdef]

1. Also, aren't there are a lot of catholics in the rust belt?

Because I don't think Palin's church's stance on Catholicism is going to play well with them, if so.

[Alhena]

3. Yes, lots of Jews in Florida as well- the Jews For Jesus pastor won't play well there

[melody]

2. It has already flatlined.

The daily tracking polls are showing it tied again. Not much of a bounce. People woke up the next morning and realized, "Oh, my god, she's Hitler with lady parts".

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. "she's Hitler with lady parts".

DUzy........

I agree with the OP that it did strengthen the Focus on the Family type vote
in states that were not in play. Ohio has a larger catholic population than
in the red states and catholics and Jews are starting to become aware of her religion.
I wonder how Palin plays with the Mormons?

[SteppingRazor]

4. Meh, that's not necessarily true.

A heap of state polls came out today, and a lot of them were more-favorable to McCain than previous ones in that state (specifically in Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia). That said, only in Virginia and Ohio did this make the state go from Obama to McCain, and in all cases, it's likely a temporary effect that will be changed by future events (the debates, Palin's continued unraveling, etc.)

[Alhena]

6. Buzzkill reply :)

[SteppingRazor]

10. Sorry. How's this:

:party: :bounce: :beer:




;)

[melody]

11. That was the bounce factored into the state by state

It'll go back as it was this week since McCain's bounce has gone flat.

[SteppingRazor]

12. I agree. Maybe not as soon as this week, but it will go back closer to previous levels...

at least until the post-debate bounce Sept. 26, though hopefully, that bounce goes in Obama's favor.

[floridablue]

5. It might get the Shrub total in the Redneck Riviera of Florida

We are going to have a hard enough time with our State whithout all the Bible Nuts turning out, but it looks like they now will.

[Kolesar]

7. Ohio just reflipped to 48% McCain - 46% Obama

Ohio is half bible belt and 100% rust belt.

[melody]

9. It'll flip again n/t

[Beregond2]

13. Ohio is such a mystery to we westermers.

From where it is on the map, it ought to be solidly Dem, yet it is always on the cusp like this.

[ClarkUSA]

14. I am shocked to find such a Common Sense OP among the Chicken Little DU threads

How refreshing.