Poll numbers result from prior CAMPAIGN decisions & actions. It is DUMB to ignore GOP EFFECTIVENESS

[Sensitivity]

Plouffe and Axlerod have been helping Barack Obama run a fantastic campaign at the STRATEGIC and OPERATIONAL levels.

But the actions and inactions of the last 2 weeks show that TACTICALLY we have been whipped by the McCain team. The Campaign was beaten in specific ways:

1. They were ready to stomp on the Biden pick and leverage it against Obama
2. We were not able (or willing) to DAMAGE the McCain brand during our convention
3. We did not build the OBAMA brand during most of our convention but focused on Clinton and rescuing party unity.
4. They were ready to drop the Palin bomb on our fantastic Obama Acceptance Speech and our convention Bounce.
5. They shaped the Palin pick as TRANSFORMATIVE and EXPANSIVE -- energizing BASE and going after WOMEN and INDEPENDENTS
6. We were unprepared to hobble her and allowed them to protect her BRAND
7. They focused their convention on UPLIFTING MCCAIN and DEMONIZING Democrat and Obama
8. The used their convention to REINVENT their Party
9. We had nothing prepared to stomp on their convention Bounce

Now, they have undercut our strategic advantage with the CHANGE message and the democratic trend in the WOMEN vote.

In the next 60 days the TACTICAL game is what counts most. BUT, the Rethugs tend to win on TACTICS-- specically SMEAR TACTICS.

Can we win this bare-knuckle tactical game?

Or is there yet a new Strategic Play for us to change the game and WIN?

[Boz]

1. Your concern is noted.

[Democat]

2. Good points

The Obama team seemed to be waiting to see what the polls said before reacting to Palin. This follows their very slow response to McCain's attacks on Obama earlier in the campaign. If they aren't able to get out in front of the Republicans, then it's likely we will lose this election.

When Democrats are on the offensive, they can win. When we are constantly on the defensive (see Al Gore and John Kerry), then we increase our chances of losing.

By the time Obama figures out the Palin problem, Republicans will probably have thrown something else big at him, and the cycle of being on the defensive will start again. That's why we need to be on the offensive all of the time. Obama needs to put the Republicans on the defensive if he wants to win. Being nice will not work.

[Teaser]

3. "we had nothing prepared to stomp on their convention bounce"

you sure of that?

[Sensitivity]

6. No major event/announcement Day After McCain speech. Did I miss it.

[Teaser]

23. ah, I thought you meant in the next few days

.

[Sensitivity]

30. Remeber how McCain had false leaks all night after Obama's speech to distract

discussion from Obama to his Veep pick.

[melody]

4. The bounce seems to have ... bounced

I think we'll be surprised at the next week -- in a good way.

[Sensitivity]

34. Hope so

[9119495]

5. As a rebuttal...

1. republicans got to go second...always an advantage there as you can announce a VP (or something else big) to suck out the wind of the convention.

2. The McCain brand is tough to damage because he is perceived as a hero. This demands a whole different tactical playbook...I think they made the right choice by trying to tie him to bush...and that will pay off soon as people shift away from the magic pixie Palin to the bad news that surrounds us.

3. Palin is LOOSING women, not gaining them. Soon men will probably come around.

4. We don't need to reinvent our party, they do. We just have to convince people to trust us to solve the issues. Poll after poll shows the public trusts us more than the republicans.

5. The Obama announcement is coming. While everyone is going Palin crazy, Obama's fundraising team is calculating their donations and I assure you, this month it is a BIG JOB. I predict a record shattering 70 million.

[Sensitivity]

7. Good points. "Palin is LOOSING women" ?? Where did you get that?? 1 Poll showed 20 pt

gain among white women.

[9119495]

8. I'm looking...back in a second.

[Jennicut]

9. That poll was disproved by Chuck Todd, he said...

the #'s don't add up if McCain and Obama are essentially tied in the same poll. Now please go away and do something useful for Obama instead of posting all these sky is falling threads.

[Sensitivity]

11. Sky is not falling and LOSING IS NOT AN OPTION THIS TIME.

[9119495]

14. Here it is. Women are not fooled by her. Some men apparently are

but, they probably have like gun racks on their trucks and stuff.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/09/poll-women-and-men-dont-see-eye-to-eye-on-palin/

[Sensitivity]

17. Agreed. But does not debunk ABC/WP poll. Women typically trend DEM and more critical of R women

[Cosmocat]

18. The didn't "reinvent" their party ...

they spent four days with the saddest, most pathetically superficial and childish bashing of BO and the Ds, went ape shiite over a modestly well delivered preprepared speech by Palin and mananaged to stay awake for McCain's bottom five acceptance speech of the last 100 years.

The offered NOTHING, N O T H I N G at their convention other than smug and snarky shots at democrats.

As someone else noted, McCain and the Rs got LUCKY to have their convention second, and put it right after the Ds, not a lot BO could have done - In theory he could have dreamed up some big event/speech, but outside of that you have the media going off about Palin.

[Sensitivity]

36. McCain campaign: party was born anew during convention- - funny, I know

[win_in_06]

31. why did the republicans "get" to go second?

As I recall, they went second in 04, and used their convention to mock Kerry's "reporting for duty".

Is this a right of the incumbent party, or did the RNC outmaneuver the DNC?

[BuyingThyme]

10. Obama has to get desperate NOW

in order to avoid looking desperate later.

The Convention was the ultimate opportunity, but he failed to turn it up.

[Jennicut]

12. Uh, the DNC convention was considered a success. Remember "unity"?

It was a big question that got answered.

[BuyingThyme]

13. That unity crap was idiocy.

A waste of a good convention.

[Democat]

32. Let's all hold hands!

We don't need to fight John McCain, we can Unity him into submission!

[Sensitivity]

33. I really was just a crazy as it looked. Created drama, but left McBush untouched

[Sensitivity]

35. Just saw Rethug "Sex Education" AD -- They are going for the KILL NOW

[Sensitivity]

15. The rumored change re letting loose 527's may indicate change to FREE-FIRE STRATEGY

Maybe there is a decision to let the Independent groups respond nationally to whatever they want while the Campaign focuses on their state by state battleground plans.

[npincus]

16. right-- I thought the focus on "unity" and not McCrap was a big mistake.

Which we are paying for.

[Jennicut]

25. Right, ignoring unity when all the talk was Hillary 24/7 that week.

Yeah, real good strategy. We had to prove we could heal after the primaries and we did that and then we attacked McCain with Clinton and Biden and then Obama went after McCain the next night. What is wrong with you people and your revisionist history? It just happened two weeks ago! Go back and watch youtube or something.

[wolverinez]

19. All of this is true, as sick as it makes me. Same old shit, new election.

nm

[Sensitivity]

21. Obama has much better social network and ground organization, but need a Game Change now

I expect they are working on something. If we sit on our hand its over.

[wolverinez]

27. Ground game is nice, but message mahcine is even better.

nm

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Go get 'em, Sensitivity!

Obama's greatest supporter on these boards, ladies and gentlemen!

Sensitivity!

[blondeatlast]

22. "Negativity." Imagine living with it.

:scared:

[alcibiades_mystery]

24. Sensitivity is looking out for us!

We don't need Polyanna's in here in denial denial denial. Let's all change Obama's campaign strategy RIGHT NOW! Let's do it!!!!

[blondeatlast]

26. It's pure genius. I just don't know why the campaign hasn't hired it... nt

[ClarkUSA]

28. Oy vay, another "concerned" backseat armchair campaign manager thread from this OP!

I can't wait for tomorrow's panic opus. :eyes:

[Sensitivity]

29. IDEA: If we could ORCHESTRATE a series of Rep & Ind Endorsements based on RISKINESS of PALIN pick

this would be a good time. BLOOMBERG, POWELL, HAGEL come to mind, but their could be others.

Pondering about Koch's "scary" comments made me think on this.

One could in one operation leverage the attention the is going to Palin and accomplish a few strategically important things:

1. Make McCain PAY for his base-pandering by using it to damage his credibility with Indies
2. Improve Obama's post-partisan Brand
3. Make "McCain-Palin" the risky, roll-the-dice choice

[sampsonblk]

37. I vote for #2 and #9 and the real kickers

2. We were not able (or willing) to DAMAGE the McCain brand during our convention

9. We had nothing prepared to stomp on their convention Bounce



#2 is the mistake we make almost every single time. If anyone has an explanation for this, I would love to hear it.

#9 is just a complete shock to me, and suggests a hugel ost opportunity. Hopefully the Obama people will have learned from this. They really got outsmarted on this one.

[Sensitivity]

38. Can help but think that Obama Campaign was unprepared for game-changing and vicious tactics of Repug

But they should have expected it.