My electoral college prediction: Obama 271, McCain 268

[Edubb]

If you haven’t played with this map, I encourage you to try it. I base my predictions largely on the latest polls from realclearpolitics, and by historical trends.
Florida will go McCain.

I know my state well, and we elect Republican governors, and have many old, white people (Hillary clobbered Obama here).

Ohio will also go McCain. The racist vote wins again (Hillary trounced Obama in Ohio as well).

Michigan, Nevada, and Colorado are trending Obama.

And Pennsylvania went Dem the last four presidential elections.

Anyone agree or disagree?

[MadBadger]

1. Disagree on the basis of it not being possible.

[msallied]

2. Bullcrap. Ohio goes Obama.

Hillary trouncing Obama in Ohio means nothing. You can't compare primary races with general election ones. Obama gets all the Kerry states plus Ohio and CO and probably NM.

[RollWithIt]

3. Bookmark this thread... Obama WILL win Ohio.... Bank on It

There is no way that Ohio votes Republican this cycle. Not going to happen. Plus the Secretary of State in Ohio is a Democrat now. So is the Governor. So are all the cities. Even a very liberal Dem Senator. Not to mention new registers in the last year. That State is BLUE. Count on it. Bookmark it.

[Seen the light]

4. Make WI blue and make NV red and you have my prediction

Again, Colorado is going to be Obama's fallback. It's been trending his way all year and, if he wins it, it won't matter if McCain takes both Ohio AND Florida....as long as he also takes Iowa and New Mexico away from the red column from 2004.

Oh and there's no way ND is going blue. Sorry.

[DarthDem]

5. Some Disagreement, But Mostly a Nice Job

1) There is no way in hell that Wisconsin will go for McClown.

2) Similarly, North Dakota is not going for Obama.

3) It's too early to tell with Ohio (where Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes), Nevada (where Kerry lost by 10,000 votes), Virginia, and Florida. I also have hopes for North Carolina and even West Virginia.

[Seen the light]

13. Don't count on NC

I'm knocking on doors for a NC House candidate and I've run into countless people in the rural districts where the rednecks have been all too quick to ask if the person I'm supporting is for Obama and McCain and when I say Obama they tell me to go fuck myself.

[DarthDem]

21. Okay

I used to live there. I know there are a lot of rednecks who would do exactly that. I don't think it proves anything, necessarily.

[ClarkBayh 2008]

15. WV & NC?

That's one solid optimist.

Realistically, it should boil down to MI, OH, NV, CO, FL, VA, NM.

Obama just has to win IA, NH, MI, CO & NM which would give him 273.

VA would seem to be a better shot than CO, but there is all that navy/military connection in VA, while the Libertarians are strong in CO.

[DarthDem]

22. Yes, WV and NC

Obama is polling close in NC at the height of McClown's bounce. That is cause for me to have hopes there, which is what I said. In addition, a local poll from WV shows McClown leading by five points with 17 or 18% undecided. Since Obama only has to flip 50,000 votes from Kerry's showing (and Kerry completely ignored the state), I think some attention should be paid to WV. And so does the Obama campaign, as they are opening up seven field offices there starting this week.

[AndyTiedye]

27. One Thing We Should Have Learned From '00 and '04 Is Not to Count on "Undecideds"

If they're still undecided by this point, they're not voting for us.
Or if they do, then there has been even more election fraud than we thought.

[elkston]

6. Its a realistic output, but I wish you'd have more faith in Florida or OH

You really underestimate the motivation of the electorate this season. Many black people are going to vote again for the first time in a while. We might get a surprise.

Even my home state, North Carolina, might be in play.

[TwilightZone]

7. I just can't see us winning ND.

I know that Barack is ahead in the polls, but I think, in the end, it's going to go red. ND going blue would be one of the largest single-election swings in terms of percentage in history.

I also think we'll win Wisconsin fairly easily and will probably win Ohio. Those will more than make up losing ND in your example.

[MadBadger]

8. Have you seen a single poll with Obama down in Wisconsin?

[scheming daemons]

9. We're going to win Wisconsin.... no way it goes Repuke

[Thrill]

10. I;ll take it

[ClarkBayh 2008]

11. Agree mostly. Colorado & Barr voters are the Key.

Also, Obama might pick off that EV in NE.
You never know.

I don't buy NV going BLUE or WI going RED unless NADER or Barr gets 5%.
We all know this will come down to 5 states & most have dem governors, so it's 50-50 till the last weekend.

[WinkyDink]

12. Thank Gawd I'm in a Blue State. But it's scary how many morons there are in the U.S.

How the lower-middle to lower-classes in the entire SE can go Red, I haven't the vaguest.
I mean, I DO---God, Guns, and whatever---but dang. How dumb do you have to BE to vote against your own self-interest?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Kerry States + NM +IA+CO

That's my parlay and I'm sticking to it...

I would put OH, FL, and VA as doable but not as doable as my parlay...


Who knows?


I could be full of it...

[falcon97]

31. +1

Is FL at the end of the list of doables? I was thinking VA was the most likely of the three to turn, but this constant stream of Rethug B.S. makes me think it's gotten harder there. I will admit that Chicken Little is a cousin of mine...

[rgbecker]

16. How about Missouri....Are you writting it off?

I know the place is full of bible belt racists but they did vote in a democratic Senator in 2006.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. So Did Florida And Virginia

~

[Midlodemocrat]

28. We're going blue this year. I can feel it. (Virginia)

We also have a Democratic Governor. :bounce:

[nickshepDEM]

17. We will win both, but MI would go before WI

Take away NV, ND and give Obama WI, and you have my prediction.

[regnaD kciN]

19. It may come down to New Mexico or Nevada...

Just today, a single poll gave McCain a +2 lead there (within the MoE). The way the race is currently going (with Nevada also in McCain's camp), that would be enough to give McCain the presidency by 270-268. Of course, that's only one poll, and pre-convention polls showed Obama ahead.

Democrats need, first of all, to make sure they hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado, all of which find us ahead. They then have to get one more state...any state...to win. My guess is that it will come down to one of those, most likely NM.

[kestrel91316]

20. If he wins by that small a margin of electoral votes, I predict a

court fight by McCain and demands for recounts so they can try to steal it AGAIN. They are not going down without a fight.

[Beregond2]

23. I'd call ths the worst case scenario.

I think we will really do better. WI and OH are almost certainly in the bag, and I wouldn't be surprised to see VA, FL, ND and MT go blue either.

[book_worm]

24. Too early to say. 55 days can be a life time in politics. My guess is either a close election or

Obama landslide.

[Blondiegrrl]

25. Wisconsin will go blue. Possibly Ohio too.

Nevada and North Dakota are more likely to swing red, IMO.

[AndyTiedye]

26. North Dakota Hasn't Gone Democratic Since 1964

and we need a best-case scenario in NV and CO too.
Ouch! That seems like an even longer shot than Ohio.

[Hawkeye-X]

29. IBTL

Jesus F. Christ - where are these concern trolls springing out from anyway?

[blue_onyx]

30. My prediction is a little different

I'm predicting 329 v. 209 with Obama winning. I don't see Obama losing Wisconsin and unlikely winning North Dakota. I predict Obama will win all the Kerry states plus: Montana, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. I know North Carolina and Montana are unlikely but I'm throwing them into my prediction anyway :)

[davidpdx]

32. First the polls are going to be all over the place

in September. I heard that Florida is actually a lot closer and that could be due to the fact that Palin is not popular with older people and those of Jewish faith. If that is true (and I use the word "if") that doesn't bode well for McCain.