The Daily Widget – Fri 9/12 – O-264, M-274 – Twenty New Polls: Is This the Best McCain Can Do?

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

Today’s list of new state polls reads like a Weekly issue of THE MATH. Twenty new polls for 12 different states were released yesterday, mostly conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, only days after the end of the RNC convention.

Of all the states polled, though, the only states to change columns today are Georgia and Florida. Georgia moves from Weak McCain to Strong McCain, while Florida moves from Lean McCain to Weak McCain. With these changes, McCain retakes the popular vote lead today by a razor thin 0.25%.

In the South, both Insider Advantage and Strategic Vision show McCain leading in Georgia by double digits, while both Quinnipiac University and Insider Advantage show McCain’s lead in Florida increasing to 7 or 8 points. Research 2000 continues to show McCain leading by double digits in Mississippi, and North Carolina was polled by three different outfits that produced varying results (again).

In the North, Maine continues to be an Obama stronghold but it doesn’t seem to be helping Rep. Tom Allen in his U.S. Senate run (down by 19 points). Thirty-eight percent of Democrats in Maine are supporting Susan Collins (R-i), and she is winning every demographic besides that. (Sorry to deliver this bad news, fight4my3sons!) :(

Pennsylvania continues to poll well for Obama, and Michigan is hanging in there as well. Meanwhile, Ohio finally finds another pollster besides Rasmussen showing McCain with a lead there. Both Insider Advantage and Strategic Vision have Obama trailing slightly in Ohio. The more trustworthy Quinnipiac University poll shows Obama up 5 points in Ohio today, though.

Out West, two polling agencies split Colorado but Obama maintains an average lead. Idaho and Wyoming continue to poll solid red, and Insider Advantage shows Obama trailing by 1 point in Nevada. It’s easy to see the party ID methodology used by Insider Advantage by looking below at their six polls released today. McCain wins them all, and they are all considered swing states this year (Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Georgia).

So, only days after the RNC convention, McCain takes a tiny lead in both the electoral vote and the popular vote. Is this the best he can do this year? I think we’re still in great shape.


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 1078 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 501 LV)
Florida Obama 43, McCain 50 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1032 LV)
Florida Obama 42, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 511 LV)
Georgia Obama 39, McCain 52 (Strategic Vision, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 38, McCain 56 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 506 LV)
Idaho Obama 29, McCain 68 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 52, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 44, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Mississippi Obama 37, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 518 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 49 (Garin Hart Yang, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 605 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 47 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 600 RV)
North Carolina Obama 38, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 2.7, 1367 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1001 LV)
Wyoming Obama 39, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

[tekisui]

1. I do think this will be mcPOW's high water mark.

Obama has hit them hard since Monday, Phalin bombed on National teevee, and Obama has come out swinging today. And, is going to be using Biden more.

The Convention bounce has already been erased in the National polls.

It's all downhill from here for mcPOW/Phalin.

See you at the debates, bitches. :evilgrin:

[phrigndumass]

2. That's what I'm seeing, too :)

And there are some terrific bargains on Intrade. The debates will be uber good.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

3. Note To Self: Don't Eat Breakfast BEFORE Reading Widget

to avoid indigestion.

Well, if this is the low point, and it's all going up up up from now, ....here's hoping, anyway.

It's the Insanity of Sarah Palin and the Incompetence of McCain that really bother me. That anyone could nominate these two people for Highest Offices with a straight face--they don't even make good puppets! I suppose they've got puppet mastery down to a science, though. Too bad they have no intelligence as to how to control events!

I think the convergence in figure 3b with the three EV predictions does show that McCain has reached his natural limits.

[phrigndumass]

4. It may hang around 270 for a little while before going up, unfortunately

But ... at least we know with everything slanted in McCain's direction, he really can't scratch the surface of Obama's base. That's great news for us!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning!

That's what I was afraid of in regards to Allen/Collins. She's all over with targeted ads whereas his ads are more general. I really dislike her a lot, but people generally think she's 'likable'. ugh :cry:

On the bright side in Rockport someone hung a huge Obama banner off of their upstairs porch. I have to take a picture. LMD saw it from the school bus and reported when he came home yesterday!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Allen will need a game-changer to win

It'll be necessary to bring the Democrats back to voting for the Democratic candidate. 38% of Democrats supporting Collins?! :crazy:

LMD has great eyes :bounce:

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. TY

And we all should be able to post poll results and share our views without being called concern trolls...

This race has become a "push" or "pick em"...

[phrigndumass]

8. Exactly, don't shoot the messenger :)

It's good to have constructive criticism. :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Still Think The Winning Parlay

I still think the winning parlay is Kerry states + IA + NM + CO but that leaves little room for error...

[phrigndumass]

10. That seems to be the easiest and most likely path, but I think we'll do better

We shouldn't rule out New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio. All four of these states have been polling blue more than they have been polling red.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. NH Was A Kerry State

Without NH my parlay doesn't work.

I would be pleasantly surprised if VA, NV, and OH went blue...

[phrigndumass]

16. Oops, you're right!

:)

[my3boyz]

11. Well, it is good enough because McCain would win. nt

[phrigndumass]

12. It's a good thing the republicans can't hold their convention a few days before the election :)

They'd always win that way. Today's "snapshot" would be equivalent to that. It'll get better.

:donut: Good morning, my3boyz! :hi:

[my3boyz]

13. I hope you are right! I have been feeling really down since he picked Palin...then the

convention..then the drop in polls. It is just too much! :(

[phrigndumass]

17. Yeppers, these are typical election-year swings, it happens just like that ...

... every four years in early September. I would have been surprised if these things didn't happen.

:hi:

[dccrossman]

14. K & R

Said before, but I'll say it again, I think we're measuring McCain's likely high water mark. Seeing the effects right out of the RNC, which should cause a bump, along with the impact of Palin, which led Repug-leaning independents to stop saying 'undecided' to pollsters.

It'll be more interesting in about a week when the convention bumps have fully worked through the system and there has been a little time for Palin to be better vetted. It's amazing that her handlers failed to keep her from bungling in front of a friendly host tossing what should have been softballs.

With this performance, they'll likely want to keep Palin even more under wraps and will want to keep playing the victim card which goes completely against their base.

Plus, if Obama really does come out swinging this weekend, that should begin to make an impact.

We now need a slow rise, so that hopefully we'll peak and then plateau in mid-October or so, IMHO. =)

[phrigndumass]

18. Agreed :)

Too bad for them they can't keep their candidates under wraps for long. The debates are coming! Things will turn around soon enough.

:hi:

[New Earth]

19. wtf?

Didn't I just read here like 3 days ago that Obama was ahead in electoral votes?

[phrigndumass]

20. Obama has always been ahead ... this is just a republican convention dip for us

It'll turn around soon enough.

:hi:

[BlackmanX]

21. Mcsame isn't going to win NM

We can't forget that the repub convention was just last week so their little bounce is still in effect but that's mostly over now. In 2 new daily tracking polls I just saw Obama is leading mcshithead by 2%. And I don't care what any map says mcinsane is not going to win NM PA or any state trending blue up to this point. The only region where the palin pick is working is in the south and thet is just FL and GA. VA, OH, NC, and IN are all still in reach. For Obama there is still alot of room for success and for mcshit there's alot of room for failure. NH is still solidly blue.

[phrigndumass]

22. Agreed! :)

Good analysis.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[progressoid]

23. Yeah, I'd like to be optimistic but these numbers are troubling.

Time to roll up our sleeves and get to work.

[phrigndumass]

25. If we wanna defeat the crimes, we gotta do the time :)

:hi:

[grantcart]

24. I agree that this is McCain's highwater mark

by definition a surprise candidate like Palin will only increase her negatives. Nobody that doesn't already like McCain/Palin are going their way.

All in all the polls are actually better than I thought with the possible exception of Florida and North Carolina. I don't understand why the DailyKos poll would be so far out. If we are within 4 points today - as two polls show then we have an excellent chance.

Some of the 'bad news' is being delivered by polls that we have never heard of before and I really wonder how valid they are.


Good news - this Indiana poll is the best news so far but it is by a polling firm I never heard of before but the cross tabs look good.

http://www.gaugemarketresearch.com/Howey-Gauge%20Statewide%203.pdf


And a final note - beyond the top line numbers remains the question of how enthusiastic the supporters are. Obama's enthusiasm will only go up and McCain's will only go down, IMHO.

[phrigndumass]

26. The Howey-Gauge poll for Indiana was conducted the weekend after Obama's speech

It's good news, but I'm still unsure how much of it was due to his convention bounce.

Before inputting all the polls into the spreadsheet last night, I was expecting an alarmingly different picture. It was a great surprise to me that only two states moved right!

:hi:

[grantcart]

27. i think that the three most interesting states to look at now are

Florida, North Carolina and Indiana. If Obama can get 3 points in these states in the next week I think it will be very significant.

[LynneSin]

28. Insider Advantage polls should be held suspect - owned by someone who works for Town Hall

Matt Trowery is the CEO of Insider Advantage and is also a regular columnist for Town Hall. So that Nevada poll I hold suspect. Obama had been doing pretty well in Nevada until this poll came out.