Rasmussen daily tracking graph for 9/12/08 - Obama 45, McCain 48 (O down 1, M up 2)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 46, McCain 49 (O ↓ 2, M ↑ 1)

Good God. Americans really are that stupid!














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Dawgs]

1. But, according to many here, the Obama campaign has got it all under control.

Yeah right.

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Yeah. Blind optimism is no better than blind pessimism.

Of course we shouldn't let our attitudes be ruled by the daily fluctuations in these tracking polls, but it's foolish to dismiss them as flawed or meaningless and to insist that everything's going according to plan.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Was Looking At Gallup Charts From Elections Past

Kerry and Gore closed much larger gaps to "almost nothing"...

I don't know if that's of comfort or not...

I can link them if you want...

[Democat]

9. Neither Kerry nor Gore ended up in the White House

That's the problem. Republicans do enough to get in the White House, Democrats don't.

[Democat]

8. Your concern has been noted!

Now sit down and let the Republicans punch us some more!

[Dawgs]

21. Huh?

My concern is the lack of punching by Democrats.

[Democat]

29. It's a DU favorite

When we point out that Obama isn't fighting back (or back when Kerry was running, we said that Kerry was being a wimp), someone tells us "your concern has been noted" to put us in our place and let us know that the campaign is all knowing and we are wrong. :)

[Dawgs]

35. I got ya!

:hug:

[Drunken Irishman]

58. Hey Dawgs, I know you love to camp out in threads that show Obama losing...

So why the fuck aren't you posting in the Gallup poll that shows him chipping away at the lead, or the Hotline tracking poll that shows Obama up one? I look and look and look and you're not posting in any of those threads. Yet when one fucking poll shows Obama down, you freak out, troll the thread with your concern and yet, nothing from you in the positive threads. Why?

Oh, I see, because it wouldn't work for your WE'RE DOOOOOOMED message. :eyes:

[dennis4868]

3. Dems doing what they do best...

fuck up an election that is served to them on a silver platter.

I am sorry but after everything that has gone on the last 8 years, the fact that McCain is even close in any poll tells me that Obama is simply running a bad campaign.

So go ahead and attack me I do not care. I got attacked on DU 4 years ago for saying the same thing about Kerry. And yes, I am out there working hard for Obama on a daily basis but we the people waking up at 6am for him need some support from the top of ticket other than Biden saying he is not the best candidate for VP and describing Palin is glowing terms.

[oldsneakers]

39. Thr race is essentially tied

....and Obama is well ahead in electoral college. I've said this before, much of what we are seeing is still McInsane's convention bounce. And yes I know his bounce lasted longer than Obamas but what did anyone expect with the media wetting themselves over Palin. I'm a firm believer in ignoring Palin to death. We have to stop obsessing over her and let the focus of the campaign return to Obama and McCain. When that happens Obama always comes off looking better than McCain.

[michreject]

51. No he's not

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[DavidDvorkin]

53. State polls are behind the daily tracking polls

Someone (Josh Marshall?) pointed this out online recently. The state polls aren't done as often, so the sites estimating EC totals are slower to show the trends that the daily tracking polls show.

Which means that it's unwise to dismiss troubling trends in the daily tracking polls by pointing to more favorable numbers on the sites estimating EC totals.

[michreject]

56. Put your pointer over the state

It gives the date of the most recent polling data.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Whether We Like It Or Not There Is A Convergence In The Polls

Here's a link to a poll done by Al Gore's , Bill Clinton's and John Kerry's pollster with essentially the same results:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor_091008fq9.pdf

[Jennicut]

5. Its within the margin of error, race is essentially tied, keep fighting

Obama is supposed to go more negative today.

[Democat]

6. Obama will do what Kerry did and try to fight only if the polls say so

Instead of hitting hard and getting out in front of the Republicans, our guys like to wait to study the polls and try to decide how to run the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Republicans don't need polls, they just punch our candidates in the head every chance they get.

It's looking more and more like a replay of 2004.

[dennis4868]

11. 100% right

Unfortunately the Lee Atwater and Karl Rove style politic rule the day which means issues are meaningless.

It's all about defing your oppoenent and making alot of shit up about him. This is very unfortunate. But this is the way it is.

McCain is doing it and Obama is playing the game that Gore and Kerry played...talk about the issues and hope the media brings out the lies by your opponent.

When will the dems learn?

[Democat]

17. Change is losing. Character attacks are winning.

But Democrats can't see it.

Obama was supposed to be different because he is the next generation of Democrats. But he's taking a beating from a guy almost old enough to be his grandpa. Pathetic to watch!

[DavidDvorkin]

20. We're left hoping that the strain will get to McCain

and the results will horrify the public.

Could happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Since 1988

"Unfortunately the Lee Atwater and Karl Rove style politic rule the day which means issues are meaningless."

Lee Atwater's first big win was against a gentleman with a Greek surname who was running for higher office in South Carolina...Atwater's whole campaign revolved around the theme that South Carolinians should vote for his guy because he "is one of us"... How do you think he did?

The Republicant strategy is beautiful/ugly in its simplicity;create a circle and portray your opponent as outside that circle and hope a majority or plurality agree...

The Republicants are just smarter than us...It has nothing to do with Stanford-Binet scores,, SAT scores, GMAT scores, LSAT scores, AMCAS scores, et cetera...They are smarter because they know how the world works...Go into any court room and you can see lawyers from obscure second tier law schools handing the Ive League boys and girls their asses to them...

Republicants are just better at politickin... They suck at governing...

[Democat]

31. Smarter or more willing to fight for what they want?

Democrats always want to take the "high road". By not being willing to fight hard and mean for what is right, Democrats allow Republicans to start wars, harm poor people, and cause other problems.

Someday we may find a Democrat who realizes that if you truly believe in helping people, you have to be willing to do whatever it takes (within legal limits) to defeat the Republicans. Taking the high road and losing does not help anyone.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. That's Above My Pay Grade

Actually, we need to be as low down and dirty as the Republicants to win but how?

[amborin]

54. looks that way

why aren't we labeling mccain as elitist?

out of touch????

etc.....

we need to put the rethugs on the defensive, not vice versa

the O computer ad will do the opposite: it will push voters to McCain

it ridicules many of the very voters we're trying to attract

[LynneSin]

10. Once again WHO GIVES A SHIT ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

We don't elect via popularity poll we elect via electorial college

[DavidDvorkin]

13. A lot of us do, obviously.

They give us an overall picture of how the voters are moving.

[LynneSin]

19. Looke there is one quick stop website that will give us the REAL picture

and what we should be using instead of these popularity polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

BTW, McCain pulled ahead for the first time in month but I hold the Nevada pull in suspect since it's done by a polling organization owned by a person who writes a column for Town Hall.

THIS is what we should analyze every single day. The EV gives us a truer picture of how we are doing and where our focus needs to be.

[DavidDvorkin]

23. Then you should not read any of these daily tracking poll threads

[LynneSin]

24. I don't read them - I just post the obvious - start looking at the Electorial Votes

nuff said!

[mvd]

48. Also..

Obama is down partly due to Insider Advantage (very Repuke-leaning) polls and a probable outlier in NM from Rasmussen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Of Course

But the state polls follow the national polls because it's drawn from the same pool of voters...It's unlikely but not impossible that a candidate can lose the popular vote by three percentage points and still win the Electoral College...Bush* only lost it by a half percent or so...

[LynneSin]

27. That's not true

Obama and/or McCain would win a state with 80% of the vote or just 50.1% of the vote(assuming there is no 3rd party candidate) and the results are the same - one gets all the electorial votes (for states that do 'all or none'). A popularity vote tells us little about what and where we need to focus, EV will point exactly to where the work needs to be done which makes the electorial vote far more valuable than a popularity poll.

I mean how much of a hassle is it to go to http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and say McCain 270, Obama 268.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Respectfully

The Electoral College follows the popular vote, albeit imperfectly as we have learned much to our chagrin... We have to go back to the disputed election of (1876) to see when they diverged substantially...

[Democat]

34. Our goal cannot be to lose the popular vote

That's a losing strategy!

[DavidDvorkin]

12. Still within the margin of error, but the trends are disturbing

I'd expected Obama to be comfortably ahead and steadily pulling away by this point. He was getting his message out early, but then that stopped, and the media shouting took over. Just like 2004.

I've been a Democrat since I came to this country, in 1957. I keep watching this happen. Every four years, I think, at last we've got a fighter! And then our candidate turns into a brilliant, eloquent, courtly gentleman who fades away.

[AllentownJake]

14. 9-11

I expected McCain to go up today actually.

[DavidDvorkin]

16. He did.

[AllentownJake]

26. To be expected

Planes hitting building replays tend to activate the lizard brain.

[Bill McBlueState]

41. and of course you're right,

But I just don't get it.

"Hey, remember that time we suffered the worst terrorist attack ever on our soil, under a Republican administration, and that Republican administration completely bungled the response by invading the wrong country and couldn't catch the mastermind even after seven years of looking around?"

"Let's elect more of those guys!"

[AllentownJake]

46. Flag waving

The GOP since Reagan has since stolen the American Flag.

[mvd]

47. Same here

It makes no sense, but I expected it. For some reason people believe the myth that the Repukes responded well. When what they were guilty of is negligence in the least, and very likely LIHOP. Then there was Bush hiding out. Then they started a war in Iraq based on lies and left Afghanistan floundering. Also, Al Qaeda is no weaker today. Amazing how the human brain can block out facts and common sense and just repeat "Republicans tough on terra!"

The poll will probably look better tomorrow.

[gaiilonfong]

15. yes McPALIN is up, but most of that support is coming from states Obama was going to lose anyway

I am upset too...but let's be real...the retug racists in the south are now coming out for Palin.....

[DavidDvorkin]

18. There is that.

I want Obama to win a landslide in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, but I'll settle for a narrow EC win.

[Upton]

25. This looks bad

I know everyone has been emphasizing the electoral college, but if you lose the popular vote by 3% you're not going to win the election.

[AllentownJake]

32. 9-11 yesterday

GOP polls better on that day. One day blip

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I Have Tried To Make That Point

Theoretically it is possible though...Actually a candidate could lose the pop vote by a lot more than that and win the E C but it is not happening...

Kerry almost won despite losing the pop vote by three percentage points...Ford almost won despite losing the pop vote by one and one half percent BUT they didn't win...

Nat'l polls are a blunt tool but not worthless...

[Jennicut]

37. Kerry was down alot more than Obama has ever been

I looked at some polls from that time period...he was down 5 to 7 points at times. Plus, the economy was not as bad. This is much much closer than 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Here's The Chart

http://www.gallup.com/poll/18610/Trial-Heat-Bush-vs-Kerry-Likely-Voters.aspx


Kerry was down by thirteen and losr by three... If we move up ten points we will be up by seven...


Maybe Kerry clobbering Bush* in the polls moved the numbers more than I thought...

[Jennicut]

50. Wow, 55 to 42 in first week of Sept. Compare that to statistical dead heat right now

How quickly people forget. Kerry practically never lead, was always playing catch up but came within 3 on election night.

[TeamJordan23]

40. State polls matter; not these daily national polls. nm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. I Checked

The last time a candidate lost the popular vote by three percentage points but won the Electoral College was in 1876 and the cost of that was to remove federal troops from the South who were protecting the rights of the freedmen after the Civil War...

[Phredicles]

42. Does this poll take the train wrecks of the last few days into account?

[jberryhill]

44. No, and what the hyper-informed already know takes a while to penetrate generally

If you read DU every day, you know things that the general electorate isn't going to know, and reflect in the polls, for quite some time.

But the lag time is a lot shorter than several weeks.

[WI_DEM]

43. A good night for Obama dropped off, and apparently McCain had a good night last night.

[neomonkey]

49. Don't want to don the Chicken Little hat just yet,

because hopelessness at this early stage will surely lead to that which we fear, but what galls me the most, just makes me want to wring necks, it that his choice of VP has helped him, not hurt.

Am I missing something? Do I perhaps not belong in this country?? WTF???

[leftist.]

52. I'm with you, though ...

I'm with you, though I still think that picking Palin will prove to be a horrible decision.

[samuraiguppy]

55. me too! n/t

[icanthelpit]

57. It is only worrisome because McCain is about to tip>50%

Then this becomes serious. Would have, could have, should have means nothing at this point. Obama HAS to control the message and get off of his heels.

[SuperTrouper]

59. Do not worry: RNCsmussen is a GOP outfit. We are making a comeback

and like I said three days ago the MSM will like the narrative "Obama Comeback", this is McCUnt's last stand

[xanadu1979]

60. yes, worry

Like many others have said. Every poll is showing a trend that should be troubling to any Obama supporter.

I could buy the "biased poll" argument if it was just one or two polls. But it's all of them.

[MrsCorleone]

61. What about demographics? Does anyone here have

a Rasmussen Premium account? Seems this is required to view sample demographics info.

About a month ago, NPR had a poll that skewed heavily to the older tv & radio crowd. The cell phone/internet demo, basically younger voters, were largely underrepresented.