"Obama 268 McCain 270"

[Eric J in MN]

The website "electoral-vote.com" uses polling averages, and that is their current count of electoral votes.

Please donate-to-Obama or volunteer-for-Obama.

It would be horrible if this map is the same on Election Night.

[Jennicut]

1. That is do to a right wing poll in Nevada. Disregard it, its pretty much tied.

Strategic vision and insider adavantage are not reliable.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Three Points

1)This election is a push ...

2) electoral-vote.com just posts and factors in the latest poll from each state...

3) I'm not sure that's the most accurate given the variance in quality of polls...

[Eric J in MN]

4. What do you mean by, "This election is a push"? NT

NT

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. gambling term for a tie

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Actually, It's About 6-5 Now

http://www.intrade.com/

What's harder?

McCain holding every Bush* state

or

Obama holding every Kerry state and finding eighteen extra Electoral College votes?

[rockymountaindem]

3. That was inevitable

It's impossible to be trailing in every nationwide poll without the electoral college getting away from us as well.

[WI_DEM]

6. luckily 55 days is a life time in politics.

[bkcc]

7. This one looks marginally better.

http://www.pollster.com/

The fact is that McCain is polling better now, and it's most likely due to the convention (it was just last week, although it seems like forever ago).

That said, Obama and all of us need to hit the ground running and do all we can to make sure that he wins this thing in November. No more thinking we've got this thing all wrapped up. Let's keep on moving forward!

[StrongBad]

8. Debates People!

Obama has to present himself to the public who still are kinda iffy just as to who this guy is.

We know he is an empathetic and intelligent person who is a natural born leader, but he has to get this across to middle America in order to win.

Hope he can pull it off...

[GoesTo11]

22. Hope he doesn't spend his 90 seconds praising McCain's honor

He is less genuine when he parses himself carefully to avoid making a big mistake. This is how he was in the later debates with Clinton, and all too often in interviews. In his speeches, he says what's what. It's those speeches, not the cautious though correct interviews, that make him a leader people take seriously and want to vote for. Gotta get that Obama into the debates.

[buff2]

9. If this is true

we are fu**ed. I am really afraid another damn warmongering idiot is going to "win"....AGAIN.I'm beginning to really HATE this country. The ignorance here is overwhelming. What is there to be proud about THAT? :grr:

[curse10]

10. 538 isn't all roses today either

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Dukkha]

11. Ohio was blue just lat week

Again this is where it will be won or lost. Obama needs to live here us to November 4th.

[RiverStone]

13. Recent polls have Obama ahead in OH --- that would put him back in the lead

[KingFlorez]

14. A lead that small is bound not to hold

Being ahead by 2 electoral votes is not going to hold. Besides, the polls that they base Nevada going for McCain for is flawed, as it had 73% of African-Americans voting for McCain. Our numbers really hinge on Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado and there still is a very good chance we will get those in November. No way McCain holds his lead for two months in some of these places.

[LynneSin]

15. The poll from Nevada was done by a notoriously right-wing polling place

I posted this on another link but the CEO of Insider Advantage is Matt Trowery who happens to have a regular column over at Town Hall. If you check the article about Obama losing votes to younger people, it's the same article both on Insider Advantage website AND Matt Trowery's blog over at Town Hall.

[FloridaGrl]

16. Obama is not going to lose FL.

[Eric J in MN]

23. Why will he do better than Kerry in FL?

NT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Think She Made An Ipse Dixit Argument And I'm Not Convinced He Will Do Better, Sadly

~

[GOPBasher]

17. If we can keep all those blue states and win just NM OR NV, we win. We just

need to keep the blue states first.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. The Dems Won OR in 04

You are a state short...

[GOPBasher]

21. This map has Obama winning Oregon.

What I meant was the blue states in this map, not the 2004 presidential election. This map has Obama winning 268 ev's. If we were to win those, all we would need is one more state, any state.
:-)

[liskddksil]

25. Without Ohio, Florida or Virginia

We Win with Colorado, Iowa, and either New Mexico or Nevada.

[mzmolly]

18. Indeed.

Unbelievable isn't it?

[Va Lefty]

20. Scariest sentence

"In 2004, John Kerry had 273 on this date."

Very upsetting. Think I'll start drinking early today

[RememberWellstone]

26. Knock it off!!

These are rear view mirrors!! Look at the windshield...we have a lot days ahead of us, the party has to get a grip! I think Bill may have given BO some needed advice yesterday, 2 hours worth? We will see what the big dog has come up with.

[Eric J in MN]

27. I wish Bill Clinton would record a TV ad for Obama.

That would probably help Obama in places like Ohio and Florida.

[chiefofclarinet]

28. The problem with EV.com

The major problem with EV.com is that it's algorithm of calculating voting percentages is not great. They only go back one week for polls. Yes, one week is a long time in politics, but with so few polls, any outlier can completely distort the image. 538.com is better in my mind, because it uses computational statistics of the polls versus trusting the raw data from the most recent poll. (Granted, they have McCain in the lead too.)

Commenting on the map, the only non-Kerry states that Obama is winning in is IA (+15% from CNN) and CO. And, Obama is only down by 2% (or less) in NV, NM, VA, IN, and OH. Any of those states could carry Obama to a win. Even winning 2nd district in Nebraska would get it to a tie. (Granted, my calculations say that those states is 270 EV's.) This is very doable, altogether considering.