The Generals

[Plaid Adder]

Last year I managed to work my way through Tolstoy's _War And Peace._ It was not easy, but I'm glad I did it--if only because it gives me a new perspective on what's going on right now.

One of the things I appreciated about which I would have been unable to enjoy even 5-10 years ago is Tolstoy's depiction of the behind-the-scenes infighting going on within the Russian army during the war against Napoleon. I am fond of a lot of that stuff, but what I've been thinking of most lately is his treatment of Kutuzov and the other Russian generals during Napoleon's victorious advance, and, later, disastrous retreat.

Kutuzov had a simple theory about how Russia was going to defeat an army that was undeniably better equipped, more organized, and more heavily armed: patience and time. Instead of putting everything you have into big decisive dramatic battles which, even if you win them, will use up tremendous resources, do as little as you have to do in order to keep the conflict going as long as possible until the enemy army exhausts itself and collapses.

That is what wound up happening. What's interesting to me as I think about all this DU angst is Tolstoy's obvious contempt for all the generals underneath Kutuzov who thought he'd lost his mind and who, because they were thinking based on their training and their officers' culture, refused to grasp the fact that Kutuzov had the right idea for this time and this situation. They kept demanding big costly battles, even after Napoleon's army had already essentially given up and started their retreat. Kutuzov's approach was, hey, the enemy army wants out of our country, why should we get in their way? He did order some battles, but only because he knew it was the only way to keep the other generals happy enough to prevent some form of organized mutiny.

I'm not suggesting that Kutuzov's "patience and time" strategy would actually work in this situation. We don't have much time and obviously we are all short on patience. My point is this: what we can see from where we are does not tell you very much about what the Obama campaign's overall strategy is. Just as it looked to all of Kutuzov's generals as if he were just sitting there doing nothing, when in fact he was winning the war, there's a lot of shit that may look incompetent to us but may actually be part of a larger strategy that--precisely because it is nothing like the strategies that were used and failed in the last two elections--we cannot recognize, but which for the same reason might actually work.

Consider that Obama cannot inform us, the rank and file Democrats, of his campaign strategy without also informing the opposition. That alone suggests that we don't really know what they've got planned. As for the demands for new negative ads RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW, well, obviously the Obama campaign has decided to honor them; but I think this is probably the equivalent of Kutuzov organizing battles to get the generals off his case. Cause there are a lot of fuckin' generals--on this board and elsewhere--aren't there?

What we want, what satisfies our desires to see someone just knock these lying bastards down and step on them once and for all, is not necessarily what is smart or likely to work. I accept that beacuse the last 2 elections have shown me that I do not have any idea what goes on in the heart or mind of the 'mainstream' American.

cliffordu has a good post the other day about why Obama cannot personally go on the attack against McCain--because, basically, it will make him the Angry Black Man. And I think that's absolutely right. Let us remember that a white man who thinks with his fists, talks violence all the time, threatens to kick everyone's ass, and owns a number of firearms is a cowboy, whereas a Black man with the same attributes is, as far as most of America's middle class white voters are concerned, is either in a gang or in the Nation of Islam. Obama can't do certain things that Kerry *could* have done, but didn't. But I believe, and I think I'm right in this, that his people get this and that they have long ago worked out compensatory strategies which we will find out about only when they are unleashed upon his hapless opponents.

Let's hope, anyway,

The Plaid Adder

[R. P. McMurphy]

1. Obama's primary strategy has been thoroughly...

discussed on DU. That was unorthodox but it appears to have worked out well.

Excellent post Plain Adder.

[cliffordu]

2. Thanks for this. Excellent post.

K&R!!

[HCE SuiGeneris]

3. Love your work.

Recommended reading.

[Plaid Adder]

4. Dang. Too late to fix all the surface errors.

This is what happens when you post and run. Ah well.

The Plaid Adder

[TygrBright]

5. There needs to be a button here marked "HIGHLY recommended."

So I can click on it. Thanks, Plaidder!

appreciatively,
Bright

[me b zola]

6. K&R

:thumbsup:

[SidneyCarton]

7. K and freakin R for fascinating analysis.

Posts like this are one of the reasons I come to DU, they give great perspective.

[paparush]

8. PA, I hope you are right. I've been reflecting on Obama vs Gore and Kerry

The consistent difference I see is Obama's quick turnaround to Right Wing lies/attack/smear. He cites the lie and he counters the lie, with power and eloquence.

But, is this alone enough to defeat McCain? Does this alone put him in a better position than Gore or Kerry? The Right is sticking with what has worked. Lies. Smear. Spin. Marketing. Fear.

I hope you are right about compensatory strategies. I hope to be staggered, slobber-knockered by the Obama camp.

[Plaid Adder]

9. And another thing...

If you do not think that there are people from Free Republic over here in GD: P yanking everyone's chain, you are quite simply wrong. There's no way that they're not aware of the tizzy and there's no way there aren't freepers in here exacerbating it. Expecting them to pass up that opportunity is like expecting sharks to swim right past a bleeding dolphin.

C ya,

The Plaid Adder

[Joe Chi Minh]

10. K&R

[truedelphi]

11. I am not asking that Obama go negative. But it would be great if he took control

Of the interview and swung the discussion around to meet his (and our) concerns. He seems to answer questions in a general way. And he will often go out on a limb to assure the interviewer that he is on the same page as them.

Is it necessary to do that every single time? Can't he just once say, "Now. wait a minute, that is the third time you have asked me about the military and our excursion in Iraq. But ya know something? I need to bring up that in my Administration, this, this and this will occur.

One of the many things that is making me nervous is I don't even see him stepping in with a notion of OUR GETTING THE HECK out of Iraq. It seems like he is agreeing with the Interviewers who have been approved by the Powers that Be to continually offer assurances that we will continue with the current strtegy of staying in Iraq.

[bertman]

12. I certainly hope you're right, Plaid Adder. But I find the Angry Black Man argument very weak.

To me that whole line of argument is a straw man because it's so far from the reality. Who among us would want OR EVEN THINK OF Obama going off on McAnus like some stupid-ass street punk. It ain't gonna happen. First, because Obama is a classy guy and second because he's way too smart to do something that crazy. And third, because he can deal with it some other way that's more effective.

I personally want to see Obama show some kind of personal emotional controlled indignation at the shit that McAnus is throwing at him. Not some barely concealed rage or anger, but just "righteous indignation" that the Repukes would even stoop to try to portray him as advocating sex education for kindergarteners. As you can tell, that ad created a visceral reaction in me, and many other people, because it is SO OUTRAGEOUS AND UNFAIR. Even my sweet mother-in-law was very upset that they were running something that scurrilous. And you can say whatever you want, but if Obama's rebuttal and a followup ad were done well there would be no Angry Black Man repercussions at all. How about a RIGHTEOUSLY PISSED FATHER of two young girls who wants to protect them from predators?! Now that's an image of righteous indignation that most Americans can identify with and get behind.

But, we'll probably never see that because, after all we are Democrats. And Democrats don't use strong verbal statements with emotional emphasis. We use sternly-worded letters.

Now, for the other part of the Tolstoy strategy analogy. There is no doubt that Obama's campaign is doing a lot of good things and they are trying very hard to hit back at attack ads. I love that. I also love the massive voter registration drives that are bringing in millions of new registered voters. And, above all else, I hope that all of us voters--newly registered and many-time voters--will get out and vote. And I'm pretty sure we will.

So, if we all DO go vote for Barack and we know that he is the winning candidate, what part of their War-and-Peace strategy is going to deal with the voting machine manipulation, the voter caging and the myriad of other devices the Repukes have perfected over the last eight years?

I sure as hell hope that, as you are suggesting, they have some great secret strategy that they're going to unleash at the last moment to overcome the Fascist vote theft machine. I sure as hell do.

And by the way, I am no fucking freeper. I am a Democrat of 40 years who wants my country back.

[Blue_Roses]

13. great post!

:kick:

[Beetwasher]

14. Exactly, And It's Starting To Play Out NOW

We can see the shape now of what's coming; A blizzard of powerful, well funded, TRUTHFULL, hard hitting, splash making ads by 527's doing the dirty work, while Obama's attacks get "sharper" but not quite as negative, thus keeping him above the fray, cool and composed.

There's head faking going on, a bit of rope a dope, but in the end we're going to see a blizzard of attacks that will bury McCain underneath a focused, message intensive barrage.

[KakistocracyHater]

15. yes but that is Biden's job &

Hillary's & other female Dems should take Palin down, most important is that the message rings LOUD emotionally, mostly liars use feelings but it is URGENT that the TRUTH now shouts on this channel-MAKE THEM FEEL THE TRUTH.