Do you agree that the only possible "game changers" are the debates?

[StrongBad]

Aside from a scandal, it seems to me that the only way Obama can start to pull away from the current tie and control the narrative is to portray himself to the country as an intelligent and empathetic person ready to lead.

McCain is in control now because his convention was last and he pulled a wild card out of his back pocket to take the focus off him. The same thing happened in 2004 when Kerry was trailing much worse after the convention. Luckily, he erased this deficit in the first debate by slaughtering W. and making an ass out of him.

Can Obama do the same to McCain? I've never seen McCain debate but in these "forums" like the faith/service forums he comes across well. Obama comes across well too but a bit too nuanced and not as forceful as McCain.

I hope he's using all his spare time preparing because those debates will make or break his campaign.

[terrya]

1. No. I think if Obama/Biden get very aggressive...

and stay on their message, THAT will make a huge difference. The debates will solidify things, though.

[StrongBad]

2. According to the NYT today, that's what they plan on doing.

[yellowdogintexas]

3. it should, which is precisely why McCain wanted the town hall format and why

Obama didn't. Obama does well in both but he will have better advantage in a debate format I think.

and Yes the debates will probably be watched more than in past several cycles. Regardless of what we think about the general population, curiosity has been aroused; we have not had candidates this dissimilar in a very long time and this whole post convention furor has gotten folks at least interested.

[Curtland1015]

4. This has been my thinking for a while.

We may pull ahead again before then. They may pull BACK ahead after that. But it's going to be the debate winners that finally pull away... IMO.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. I agree.....BUT

The "debate winners" will ultimately (unfortunately) be whomever the corporate media spins as the "debate winners" unless Obama/Biden perform so well (or McSame/Palin perform so badly) that it will simply be "unspinnable" as to who the "debate winners" are. Otherwise, we'll just have to wait and see who the corporate media "anoints" as the winners.

I didn't pay attention much to the 2000 election but I was there watching the debates in 2004 and it's amazing that Bush's re-election campaign didn't collapse after his first debate with Kerry. Thankfully, he was the "anointed one" in 2000 and 2004 so his incompetence, arrogance, and general mismanagement of our country didn't matter more than the fact that he was THE person who could fight terrorism singlehandedly, "win" the war in Iraq, and still be able to cut loose with the average joe over a nice frothy beer. This year, I'm not sure how it's going to play out yet with the "Palin phenomenon" at its crescendo coming on the heels of the RNC "infomercial" about what the GOP plans to accomplish during the next 4 years.

I just hope that the situation is more like the former one I suggested rather than the latter.

[Cosmocat]

40. Let's be honest - BO and Biden have ALREADY lost ...

the debates ...

Again, this whole thing, and debates in general are like professional boxing. I gave up on it A LONG time ago, cause as often as not, the lesser known boxer CLEARLY got the better of the big name boxer, and the ref/judges called the fight for the big name fighter.

2004, Kerry WON those debates - the "media" called a tie/win for Bush.

SAME THING is going to happen this year.

They will get BO either way - he was too general and did not lay down a solid plan and offered no "meat", or he was too "wonky" and people did not "connect" with him. McCain will be called direct and confident.

Palin will not faint, and she will be credited for a win because she stood up to Biden.

BOOK IT.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

47. Well, I wouldn't say that I'm THAT pessimistic

McSame/Palin is not running as good of a campaign as Bush/Cheney did in 2000 and 2004 and, frankly, I believe that 2004 was probably just not going to be our year no matter what due to the general proximity of 9/11 and the start of the Iraq war/occupation. Plus, Bush had the power of incumbency at his disposal and the economy hadn't started melting down yet. Frankly, with all of the advantages that Bush enjoyed, Kerry still came rather close to winning (or DID win depending on whether or not you believe the vote counting in Ohio was fraudulent).

It will definitely be interesting to see how Obama/Biden handle the debates but they haven't disappointed me so far so I expect that they will have some kind of strategy for neutralizing McSame/Palin. For the moment, it seems like McSame/Palin are losing credibility even among our corrupt corporate media fast and they seem to have spent whatever sympathy and goodwill that might still have had they not started bashing the media. Who knows how much will be left of them by the time the debates roll around??? Heck, Palin can't even handle a "softball" interview with a sympathetic journalist like Gibson!

Keep the faith! It's not over yet!!!

[Doremus]

48. Sadly I think you're right. :-(

I remember the 2004 debates all too well. I was incredulous that the media could be so wrong!

Between the M$M and the vote rigging we are going to need a blessed miracle to pull this off. :( Sorry for my morose attitude tonight. It's been one of those days.

[GarbagemanLB]

5. The debates will be gamechangers. You think the audience watching the RNC and DNC conventions were

big? It will be nothing compared to the debates.

It will be make or break time for Obama, because regardless of him being ahead in the polls for most of the past few months, he was always the underdog because of his race and his name. He needs to go after McCain, and go after him hard in all the debates.

[amborin]

41. the debates changed zip in '04 even though Kerry won them

[Bobbie Jo]

49. Again...Obama is NOT Kerry, and this is NOT 2004.

Stop with the learned helplessness already. :banghead:

[L. Coyote]

6. Palin could answer another question!

As long as reporters are allowed to ask Palin questions,
the McCain campaign will be in jeopardy of an implosion!

[ps1074]

7. No, but I will be called names for my suggestion

I am starting to think David Axelrod is not the right guy to take Obama across the finish line. He is a specialist in urban politics and he can surely help get out the urban vote and work on that. But apart from working for Edwards in 2004, he has no experience in any national campaign. He even lost responsibility for making Edwards ads, but continued as the campaign's spokesman... Don't slam me but I think Obama's ads suck and are not aggressive enough. And I think it's Axelrod that is responsible for that.

[Democat]

8. Will Obama praise McCain in the debates?

If Obama starts his debate by calling McCain a "great American war hero", and all of the other bullshit that Obama likes to praise McCain with, we are all in trouble.

[amborin]

43. we must stop fu--king praising McCain, call him the Liar and Con artist that he is

[rucky]

9. It's the GROUND GAME.

The "debate recap" will make the actual debate irrelevant.

[StrongBad]

11. I'm skeptical about these "Obama has a phenomenol ground game" posts.

Sure, it is an absolutely positive asset to have in a campaign, but it is also a necessary but not sufficient quality to have when it comes to winning an election.

Let's say Obama goes into the swings states on election day with a 3-5 point deficit in some. Can a ground game compensate for that sort of scenario?

[rucky]

15. It's the most effective way to control the message.

Would you rather voters get their information from us or from Hannity? That's the value I see in the face-to-face contact. Obama isn't just a media figure, but someone who is important to friends & neighbors in the community - enough to get them to knock on doors. The conversations are different than the ones conjured by the media heads. The literature is prepared to address common questions and concerns without much need for training (the more training the better, of course).

It won't swing a state in 24 hours, but from today, there's enough time to move the numbers.

[Alhena]

12. I think it will be more a gradual fade of Palin-mania combined with McCain's age and lack

of any change from Bush winning the day at the end. I see a gradual shift to Obama.

[TheZug]

13. The debates are critical, but the ground game and day-to-day can have an effect.

[CK_John]

14. IMO, I don't think there will be any debates by McCain without Palin. I feel they will

hold out for a dual only appearance and a split screen from different studios.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[grandpappy]

17. Nope

[OllieLotte]

18. I agree with your analysis and am also concerned. n/t

[polichick]

19. No - the Palin effect will fade more and more as people are filled in on her idiocy.

[amborin]

20. debates may NOT be game changers

assume Obama does brilliantly

so did Kerry in '04

but that's NOT what swayed voters

"Right now, Obama is diving directly into the "too clever" and "not one of us" extended metaphor that overcame Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. I suspect that this will be the McCain team's central frame for winning the debates even if he loses them on policy points, since that was how Bush bested Kerry strategically in the debates even though the polls seemed to indicate that, at a tactical level, Kerry won them all. But that is a long story I will come back to closer to the debates."

[Bryan]

21. I agree with the OP

The debates represent a chance for our candidates to interact directly with McCain and Palin outside of their protective cocoon, and the importance of that cannot be underestimated; neither of the Republican candidates is a nimble thinker, and both are exceedingly smug, which makes them vulnerable in an extemporaneous forum.

Biden will be able to outclass Palin going away as long as he avoids the temptation to condescend to her. For his part, Obama needs to contradict and undercut McCain as much as is possible without seeming snide; McCain, with his powerful sense of entitlement, will view this as an intolerable goad, and will wander from his prepared material and maybe even lose his temper. The mainstream media will tend to spin for the Republicans, but egregiously embarrassing slips by McCain and Palin can overpower the post-debate spin and shift public opinion in a superficial way (and, sadly, superficial might just do the trick).

[AndyTiedye]

22. If we can find out what frequency McAin't's wire is on and get him reading from our script

:evilgrin:

[Sensitivity]

23. DEBATES WILL BE TOO LATE -- Most insiders I talk to see a 2 week window to turn things around

[DuaneBidoux]

24. No--he needs to start producing ads using McCains own words against him.

We must beging making this campaign more about McCain, his own words, and his own record. If we do, we will win, if we don't we will lose.

[Nye Bevan]

25. Absolutely not. I'm expecting a "potatoe" moment from Palin any day now.

She will do something like forget the name of the UK Prime Minister or refer to Obama as a "boy". There is no way she can make it through the next 2 months without some monumental, campaign-changing gaffe.

[JimWis]

26. I think they will be a significant help, but -

they are only part of the picture. No doubt Obama will dominate, but you have to worry about the media spin, which has not traditionally been in our favor. Hopefully it will reach some fence sitters to come to Obama's side. But the debates are a ways off yet. I don't think we can depend entirely on them.

[me b zola]

27. I think that McCain's gaffe last night could be a game changer

Listen, mayors have the toughest job, I think, in America. It's easy for me to go to Washington and, frankly, be somewhat divorced from the day-to-day challenges people have.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7045042

[abbiehoff]

28. I would like to think the debates make a difference

but after 2004, it's clear that they don't.

Bush appeard to be exactly what he is, totally incompetent.

The only thing that will make a difference is if we can actually catch them cheating and make the media report it.

In a fair election, Obama wins by a landslide.

[Bigleaf]

29. No, the media is the game changer. If they do their job, we win convincingly.

The fucking debates should not even come into play seeing as though McLame did NOT put country first (his slogan) by picking a fucking airhead like Porky Palin, the moosefucker. Even if Obama kicks McLames ass in the debate, if the media spins it that Obama lost, which would not surprise me in the least, the fucking sheep of this country will see it the same.

[AlinPA]

35. The media totally controls everything. Whatever they say, most 'muricans will believe.

The only way we win is on the ground. We cannot depend on "debates" or media.

[progressivebydesign]

30. No. We don't need a "game changer", the game is fine.

The polls that everyone has been hyperventilating about have been mostly done by Republican funded PR firms.. I'm not concerned. We just need to work hard on the ground game.

[Tutonic]

31. No. game changers are coming in. 527's Bill Clinton, These will

cause Karl Rove and Rush to shed some fat.

[Roxy66]

32. When is the 1st debate and who is moderating?

It depends on who is moderating and asking the questions. If Obama gets bombarded with questions like he got during the ABC debate with Clinton...it will be ugly. Now if real questions are posed to Obama and McCain, then Obama comes out on top.

[AlinPA]

36. It will be all flag pins and religion. "Debates" are a joke.nt

[amborin]

44. agree: Kerry won them in '04 and they didn't count for diddly

[icanthelpit]

33. McCain won the Saddleback "meeting", so Obama needs to hit hard before the debates

Obama can't wait around until the debates to turn the ship. He needs to be hitting hard right now. If McCain doesn't screw up in the debates, things aren't going to change that much, so Obama would be stupid to put all of his eggs in the debate basket.

[AlinPA]

34. No. "Debates" boil down to zingers and one-liner soundbites. McCain will be loaded

with them. Anything longer than two sentences will confuse most Americans.

[NYDem Observer]

37. Not if the MSM does its job

Which it looks like they may be starting to do.

[lamp_shade]

38. I think he needs to be "beat up a little" before the debates.

Like Swiss Steak. It's got to be hammered a little to take some of the toughness out. Then you cook it.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

39. Yes and I have confidence in Biden against Palin.

I'm not concerned WHATSOEVER about Obama vs McSame, lol.



Biden is the best male Obama could have chosen. He has shown himself to be classy, and he knows his shit (excuse my French).

[sudopod]

42. 11 million new registered Democratic voters

There are roughly 300 million Americans, 31 million of whom are registered Republicans and 42 million being registered Democrats.

The ground game matters. :)

Also, typing with boxing gloves, lol.

[StrongBad]

46. Holy Crap! Good point.

That's a lot of new voters...

[InNeedOfUserName]

45. For McCain, a BIG BLOTCH on his forehead. For Obama....

he calls a female reporter again and he's toast.

[DefenseLawyer]

50. The is no gamechanger. There is only turnout.

It's not really about changing minds, it's about getting people out to vote that have already made up their minds. That little sliver of undecideds will break either way. We have to focus at the precinct level in swing states to get our people to the polls. If we do, we win.

[WA98296]

51. No. If the stress keeps up, McCain could have a temper meltdown.