Obama is losing Ohio-by Paul Hackett

[kpete]

Obama is losing Ohio
by Paul Hackett
Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 07:48:58 AM PDT

Obama is losing Ohio and contrary to Mr. Plouffe’s assertion that Obama can win without Ohio history indicates otherwise.

There are at least three issues that lead me to believe that the Obama campaign does not grasp the situation in Ohio.

1. Unreliable polling

2. No organized presence in Southern Ohio

3. No attack strategy against Palin/McCain coupled with a lack of defense of the Obama central theme of change.

.............

(HACKET suggests the following attack - I felt uncomfortable when I read it - what do DUer's think?, kpete)

The message is simple and the professionals can refine it but essentially it should contain these elements:

Sarah Palin? Can't keep her solemn oath of devotion to her husband and had sex with his employee. Sarah Palin? Accidentally got pregnant at age 43 and the tax payers of Alaska have to pay for the care of her disabled child. Sarah Palin? Unable to teach her 16 year old daughter right from wrong and now another teenager is pregnant. Sarah Palin? Can you trust Sarah Palin and her values with America's future? John McCain? Divorced from his first wife one month and marries a billionaire influence peddler and convicted felon. John McCain, a record of rash and impulsive decisions. That’s not change that’s more of the same."

more at:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/12/104315/182/935/596046

[redqueen]

1. I think his attack is disgusting and counterproductive. (nt)

[thestrugglecontinues]

16. If they use this attack as outlined

It will result in a McCain landslide of Mondale proportions. I hope someone at HQ has a clue.

[Hawkowl]

45. Wrong

Mondale lost because he was the nicest, biggest puss of a politician the Democratic party had put up in 100 years. Humans are basically just a bunch of baboons, literally primates. The electorate, over the last 70 years has voted on fear, consequently nice doesn't cut it. People vote with their gut and need a reason to vote against McCain not for Obama. Even McCain's legendary temper will be an asset to him if people are frightened more of a black man than terrorists, Russians, global warming, lead paint etc.

[amborin]

55. dems need to ATTACK MCCAIN, to attack palin with that ad will give them victory

[hasssan1]

59. Amen . i have been saying this for 2 fucking months. POSITIVE CAMPAIGN WON'T GET YOU ELECTED AGAINST

REPUBS. you don't take knife to a gun fight .


LEARN FROM HISTORY !!!!!! GOSHHHHHH

[VeraAgnes]

82. Paul Hackett surely has moxie style

Oh yes...........don't let Obama pull a Kerry. I like this soldier, Paul Hackett.

[OmahaBlueDog]

34. True,but it's the kind of TMZ politics a lot of voters are responding to

[grantcart]

2. No organized presence in Souther Ohio?

I read they had 57 offices opened in Ohio.


Unreliable polling. We know that the polling does not reflect increased voter registration among the young and higher turnout with the AA.

[PermanentRevolution]

21. Actually, there quite possibly may not be

Anecdotal, I know, but I have a friend who just moved up there. He works a union shop in S. Ohio, on the West Virginia border, and he's constantly defending Obama from the guys he works with. Note that these are union-members registered as Democrats making these attacks, not right-wingers. They're all repeating the "secret Muslim" crap and swear they won't ever vote for a black man. If that's indicative of local Democrats, then it's probably best to concentrate on other parts of Ohio.

[OmahaBlueDog]

41. Wasn't that supposed to be on Biden's to-do list?

Isn't he supposed to be the guy that visits the union locals in the rust belt to convince these guys that, despite his color and funny name, that Barack is one of the guys?

[amborin]

56. wish we had the equivalent of their 'rosie the riveter' ad n/t

[Boz]

22. Ohio is moving Obama, this is counter programming folks.

Skewed internal perspective.

[Kukesa]

25. I live in Dayton.

We have a huge Obama office downtown. Another one is opening north of town, in Trotwood. I've volunteered to help two Obama coordinators who are working south of town, sans office; they're meeting at a condo clubhouse. DUer "sad one" has been canvassing for the south group.

VolcanoJen lives in the Cincinnati office. I hope she responds to this message because she's impressed with the Obama organization in her area (Jen isn't impressed easily).

Both Jen and I worked for K/E in 2004; their organization was a joke compared to what's going on here in southern Ohio right now.



:eyes:

[ClarkUSA]

44. "Uunreliable polling"? - Hackett has no clue as to what Obama's internal polling says.

Internal swing state polling is very accurate compared to public polling by questionable sources.

[KaryninMiami]

3. I agree with Hacket- but the attack should come from a women's oriented 527-

not from the campaign itself.

[kpete]

7. I hate this kind of stuff

but I KNOW people who are unfortunately swayed by it.
So many see elections as sporting events or gotchas.

peace, kp

[bunkerbuster1]

13. I'll hate it when we've won our second or third national general election with such tactics

For now I'm fine with it.

[Faryn Balyncd]

85. I agree... Every word of Hackett's is True.... and these GOP bastards are destroying America....

Give them the truth they so rightly deserve.

[MyNameGoesHere]

4. Well I don't know but i am hoping the concern police

make an example of Hackett because there is no way Obama could lose anything. He is a concern troll.

[rucky]

5. I don't think Hackett is plugged into the campaign internals.

and he's dead wrong about the Obama ground game.

There's outposts in red areas - including my county.

[Kukesa]

30. "Outposts" is a good word, Several south of town, too. n/t

[rucky]

42. You have to check out Downtown Troy

you'll poop when you see Obama HQ!

[RNdaSilva]

71. According to....

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ohoffices it would be somewhere in this area.

[rucky]

74. Nope. They're right on the square.

I'll take a pic and post it.

[Kukesa]

77. Hurry up; I can't wait. n/t

[murbley40]

6. If Obama did this,

how would we be able to tell the difference between him as a democrat and McCain and Palin as Repubs. This would not be a ticket I would want to vote for.

[GreenEyedLefty]

8. Even though true, it's way too harsh.

There's enough from the candidates themselves to go on, there is no need to delve into the spouses and families.

[Upton]

9. Hackett must be another "concern bot"

lets not pay him any attention at all.

[Eric J in MN]

10. Sleazy. NT

NT

[Egnever]

11. Haccket is a good name for this writer .. i would suggest maybe he shorten it to just hack

no organized presence? 50+ offices and no organized presence? Yea right.

[Upton]

12. Hackett is a good Democrat

he's run for office, a Iraq war veteran. Personally, I think he knows what he's talking about

[kpete]

14. that

is why I gave him a listen, although I did not like what I was hearing, still don't.

peace, kp

[bullwinkle428]

23. If he was such a brilliant campaign strategist, I would think

he could have taken down that vile Jean Schmidt character...

[tomg]

49. Actually, that was one of the reddest

districts. It was a special election in 2005. First time i ever sent money to someone besides my own rep. I remember watching all night long when he ran. It was up on DU at the time. He was actually ahead something like 51 to 49. Then, magically, something happened to the computers,she was ahead. He got diebolded. The final was something like 49 to 51. The past had been runaways for the republicans since 1974. He ran a kick-ass campaign. I think after that he wanted to go for a senate seat and didn't get the nom. Actually, they recruited him to up against her in 2006 and I think he would have hammered her, but that is when he tried to get the senate nom.

While I do not agree here, the guy is good, a solid dem, very hard hitting, and I hope we see more of him.

[CTyankee]

52. By a strange twist of fate, my good friend's sister married Hackett's brother.

So my friend has observed him up front at family occasions and she says he's a total asshole. This friend is a great person and she doesn't go around attacking people. But he disgusts her. Plus, she thinks he's full of hot air and primarily concerned with self promotion. I'll take her word any day...

[melody]

24. He's a good Democrat who has run for office and is a vet

But the simple fact is the non-internal polls (I'm assuming he means, by "unreliable polls", the internals because how would he know about other polls?) indicate Obama is ahead in Ohio ... except for Quinnipac. Has anyone seen differently?

[Upton]

61. You've got it backwards

Quinnipiac is the only recent poll that does show Obama ahead in Ohio, the others have McCain up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

[melody]

79. Thanks, I haven't checked Ohio for a few days

It's amazing how quickly it moves. Thus, it will return to normal.

[catgirl]

48. He lost. And now I know why.

This is obviously a bad strategy. They're already claiming Obama is unfairly attacking Palin.
Attack her on the issues, not on family matters. Duh. Thanks goodness Hackett isn't
working for the campaign. Er, perhaps that's why he's so "concerned".

[Bake]

60. Not too long ago he was a DU HERO.

Then he wasn't, then he was again. I guess now he's NOT.

You know how fickle DU can be.

:rofl:

Bake

[VeraAgnes]

83. Me too.

I have PTS from Kerry's weakness in Ohio...........I'm in Western Pa. and got ill from the cold shoulder Kerry gave Ohio. Let's not be too hasty and discount this wise op-ed article. Let's process the points given. he just gave a rough draft too, as he acknowledges.

[mzmolly]

15. It can't hurt to step it up in Ohio.

:shrug:

[Kukesa]

27. Here's the map of Ohio showing

Obama's offices.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ohoffices

These are official offices; lots more coordinators working in this state.

[mzmolly]

36. By step it up, I mean give a major speech on the economy from OH

or something like 'at. ;)

[Kukesa]

39. Great idea! I'll be there. n/t

[amborin]

58. Lay off Palin...ATTACK MCCAIN...label him elitist, out of touch, etc...

[regularguy]

17. Ugh. Awful. nt

[OHdem10]

18. Jobs and Nafta --take it or leave it.

Can Obama stand up to the Corporatists(some are even in our own party).
The Nafta lovers were not too happy with Hilary. This is the only way
Democrats can win Ohio. You cannot just promise. They have been burned
in the past.

[Connie_Corleone]

19. Hackett's assertion about no Southern Ohio presence is a bold-faced lie!

I see Obama volunteers all over the place down here. There are several offices opened here.

And he is absolutely fucking nuts if he thinks Obama should go after Palin with such a hideous personal attack. WTF is his problem??

[redqueen]

43. Interesting...

[Overseas]

20. The attack contains some lies that have been debunked already.

If that exact attack were run verbatim, it would rebound against us. There is a more accurate list of attack phrases we could use.

For example-- she didn't have an affair with her husband's business partner. That was a rumor only.

and

Complaining that Alaska taxpayers will have to pay for her disabled child's care is gross. I want free medical care for all.

[Kalyke]

47. How do you know she didn't have an affair.

The NE says she did and they're right about gossip far more often than they're wrong.

The NE isn't going to break an expose on Gitmo or the Iraqi War, but gossip they know and they're the masters at it.

Besides, they were right about John Edwards - and that's a recent feather in their cap.

[amborin]

history has

shown that you can't win the GE w/o Ohio

(for that matter, history also shows that a candidate cannot win Ohio in the general if they have not first won it in the primaries....only 3 exceptions total on record, for both parties)

this sounds consistent with other stuff i've seen

makes NO SENSE to IGNORE

it will certainly not hurt if we assume it's accurate and ACT on it

FIRST STEP:

FRAMING, and following advice of the 4 stories......

[AldebTX]

26. Any One Think They WANT Obama Attack

Just so they can say he is Angry.

I want him to stay on message and let his surrogates do the attacking.

I do feel he needs to respond to the personal attacks...ala the teaching kindergartners sex before reading

[AndyTiedye]

28. He's Going TOO EASY On McAngry and McMoose

These nutbars will probably start World War III if they get in!

McCain has serious anger-management issues
and Palin would do it to bring on the "Rapture"!



The original "Daisy" ad. The most effective political ad ever made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKs-bTL-pRg

I think it's time to make another.

[amborin]

29. I definitely think his ideas for attack are STU{ID and will BACKFIRE

the rethugs will deflect ALL criticism of Palin

especially the rumored affair

they ADMIRE her late pregnancy

we must go after MCSAME

another post has an article with some good ideas for going after McCain, using FRAMING

[brentspeak]

31. I agree and disagree with Hackett's view

He's correct that Obama is losing Ohio. He's wrong, though, on using the adultery allegations. There's no need to make use of them when we 1) already have footage of Sarah speaking nonsense about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; and 2) Mayor Palin's rape-kit policy. Those two things should be turned into snappy TV ads, and broadcast to as many local markets as possible.

[amborin]

32. agree with the article, but disagree with his specific attack ideas n/t

[madfloridian]

33. Here's a map of the Ohio offices. I am sick of all the 2nd guessing.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ohoffices

This board is front and center to hurt Obama, just like is was to hurt Dean during the 04 primaries. Only then no one did a thing about it.

[quakerboy]

35. I think that the first sentance tells me what I need to know

"history indicates otherwise"

You have to win a lot of states to win the presidency. And every one of them would like to be the exceptional "must win" state who controls our fate.

[SurfingAtWork]

37. I can't believe they passed over this whiz when they were staffing the campaign

If they had this guy we'd be up by like, over 9000!

[ClarkUSA]

38. Paul Hackett is a loose cannon to the max

:wtf:

[WCGreen]

40. Hackett really doesn't know what he is talking about....

[mopinko]

46. if hackett is so smart, why isn't he in the congress?

this is the kind of shit that lost him his own races.

this is horrid bullshit. and there is no way the obama campaign is coming anywhere near it.

[girl gone mad]

50. His "strategy" is horrible. n/t

[abbiehoff]

51. I think the point is

that Southern Ohio is definitely McSame territory, and many people here are very impressed by Palin. They aren't going to be aware of anything about her other than what she has said herself. Most of the impressed would be horrified to hear anything negative about her; they don't think anything negative exists. They aren't watching MSNBC or seeing DU or KOS or Huffington. They are "values" voters who admire her comments about religion and abstinance only and "thanks, but no thanks" and such.

No, I don't think the campaign should address any Palin negatives other than her position on the issues. But clearly the anti-Obama 527s have no trouble spreading lies and filth. I would very much like to take the high road, but the low road seems to win elections.

The best that could come of this approach would be to keep some R voters at home on election day.

on edit: BTW Paul Hackett is a great guy. I think he's just tired of seeing the other side get away with their lies.

[renate]

53. talking about the taxpayers having to pay for her disabled child would be INSANE

That's so stupid there aren't enough words in a thousand thesauruses to describe it. Not only is it... well, just gross to refer to a child as if he were nothing but a financial liability, but caring for people with extra needs is one of the things that liberals are pretty darned okay with.

[paulk]

54. well, since Paul Hackett was one of DU's heroes

a couple of years ago, it's going to be interesting to see DU's reaction to this.

I imagine he'll join a long list of others under the bus.

---------------


You know, the tactics he describes are exactly the sort of crap that the Republicans do. And it works for them, time and again. The Republicans understand that it's a fairly small group that you need to appeal to in order to win elections - everyone else already has their mind made up. This kind of garbage politics appeals to that group - these are exactly the sort of questions these people want answered when it comes to the candidates. They don't care about issues - they care about what they see as character. The Republicans understand that the key to winning is to destroy your opponent's character.

And Hackett is right about Ohio - we need to win Ohio if we want the White House.

[barack the house]

57. Hackett you believe this strongly. Make an ad for Ohio work with move on you can help us.

[Holly_Hobby]

62. I'm in Toledo

There are no Obama yard signs or bumperstickers, except mine, that I've seen. McCain signs and bumperstickers are absent too. Toledo is normally blue.

There have been no campaign people knocking on my door. This is really unusual at this point in elections.

I do some phoning for the campaign, but due to medical problems, I can't canvas.

[FrenchieCat]

63. and Hackett has won what, exactly?

:shrug:

[Usrename]

64. This makes me very uncomfortable too.

IMHO, the "BRUTAL" ad (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x187917) by Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund would be better in Ohio.

It's not even a close call to me. Why try and alienate the voters you should be trying to woo.

[Joanne98]

65. Just keep pounding her. We can bring that up later, if we have to.

[depakid]

66. Making the other guy look even worse is a good way to counter racism and political inertia

That said, it ought to have been up to the 527's to spread the word (since my guess is that few know) about McCain's past and what it says about his character.

The real gift that was squandered in Ohio- that might still be resurrected, was Phil Gramm's comments early this summer that Americans are whiners and the economic devastation in states throughout the rust belt is "all in their heads."

If McCain's elected, this guy- one of the architects of the meltdown- will likely be Treasury Secretary and make their lives exponentiall WORSE.

Couched as a very straightforward fear appeal and repeated over and over (alongside McCain's admission that he doesn't know anything about economics) would have been a very powerful message and presaged a VERY clear (and honestly scary) choice.

Whther he campaign can pull that bit (and other more recent ones like it) from the memory hole and use them effectively from now until the election, is anyone's guess. One hopes so- though impressions of candidates once they're defined to the voters, are more difficult to change. Sure would have been easier to have pounded that material early on, while it was in the news cycle.

[progressivebydesign]

67. Why are we posting these things here? This makes no sense. n/t

[grassfed]

68. go for it

[ladywnch]

69. I have a hard time believing this is Paul Hackett's writing. n/t

[dchill]

70. Also at dkos: "A reply to Paul Hackett: Obama Organization in SO"

But Paul Hackett's Diary is a substantive misrepresentation. I can't understand how it got on the Rec list...

Let me repeat a few highlights of what I have observed here in Scioto County.

1. For the first time we have an active, organized volunteer effort geared towards the top of the ticket in Scioto County. There was very little GOTV for Kerry (he stil won 47% in the County and took Potsmouth);

2. The Obama campaign has rented a large and constantly staffed office on Chilicothe Street;

3. We have about 20 volunteers committed to canvasing this weekend and are still getting more;

4. When we talk to base voters, they are with us.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/12/125659/694/729/596260

I think any ad which can't be proved is a bad idea. Remember: Trust Barack.

[Phx_Dem]

72. That suggested attack is the last thing Obama should do.

That even made me cringe.

I like Paul Hackett, but I don't when he became such an authority on political campaigns.

[trudyco]

73. I'm more concerned about caging and vote counting - OH's rep not good

[Kukesa]

76. But this time we have a DEM for Secretary of State. n/t

[Gregorian]

75. Here's the Obama link to their offices. Lots of them.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/ohoffices

[Edgewater_Joe]

78. Hackett Proved Himself To Be A Hack. Ignore Him.

Remember when people wanted him to re-run against Mean Jean and he said no, his ego demanded he run for the Senate? That move probably kept Mean Jean in office (although Victoria Wuslin should beat her and she'll be better anyway) and showed him to be an egomaniac more concerned about his career than progressive causes.

Even Sam Seder -- who was behind him back in THE MAJORITY REPORT days -- abandoned him, and for me that's enough proof to tell him to stuff it.

[FatDave]

80. Wrong on many levels.

First, the attacks would backfire. I'm all for going on the attack, but this harsh personal life shit will just rile up the fundies.

Secondly, we really don't need Ohio. Not saying we shouldn't try to get it, because to get it would be a guaranteed victory, but in no fucking way does he have to have it. To win, Obama needs any one of OH, FL, CO, VA or MO. McCain needs all of them plus NV.

Thirdly, Obama is not losing Ohio. He's neck and neck in Ohio after closing a sizable gap.

Fourthly, from the sounds of it, he's got a pretty good presence in southern Ohio.

[Jim Lane]

81. Attacks on Palin are fine but not *these* attacks

Keep exposing her as a liar about earmarks and the Bridge to Nowhere. Add in her billing the State for per diem charges for time she spent (chose to spend) at her own home. These are things the average voter can understand. They'll cut away at her image as a reformer.

Sarah Palin: Pork-barrel spending as usual. Culture of corruption as usual.

Of course, this deserves less emphasis than attacking McCain, which in turn deserves less emphasis than promoting Obama/Biden, as the ticket capable of delivering real change.

[derby378]

84. I say "Go for it"

We're not planning a picnic, here - we are fighting for the very heart and soul of America.

[rg302200]

86. Not True...

I live in S.E. Ohio, Guernsey County to be exact, and we have had our field office up and running for well over 2 months. We have made thousands of phone calls and have canvassed every weekend. We have been more organized and productive than the Republicans and they know this. In fact they haven't even got their local McCain field worker here yet. The shit in the OP is nothing but flame bait!