Emory University political scientist says: Barack Obama by 54 percent

[Raffi Ella]

Alan Abramowitz’ bar bet: Barack Obama by 54 percent
Thursday, September 11, 2008, 03:36 PM

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Democrats hyperventilating about the September rise of Republican John McCain should find a paper bag and relax, says Alan Abramowitz.

Barack Obama has this one in the can, the Emory University political scientist says. Abramowitz’ call for November: A popular vote of 54.3 percent for Obama versus 45.7 percent for McCain.

Which would “certainly” translate into an electoral college victory, the professor says.

Abramowitz says he’s got a “time for change” data model that fits the popular vote winner, within two percentage points, for the last five presidential elections.

The keys: The state of the economy, presidential approval ratings and the number of terms a party has been in power.

Details will be published in the October issue of “PS: Political Science and Politics.” Some excerpts:


continue reading here: http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/09/11/alan_abramowitz_bar_bet_obama.html

[Curtland1015]

1. Nice read. Thanks for posting! (NT)

[Raffi Ella]

8. I was happy to come across it...

After listening to Obama at the service forum last night and then reading this today I'm feeling pretty energized!

:7

:dem:

GOBAMA!

[cliffordu]

2. Concern trolls take note: This guy is the real deal.

Aw, who do I think I'm fooling, they're not going to listen.

K&R!!

[Jackpine Radical]

3. Well, I'm concerned.

Concerned that he's not factoring in the cheating.

[cliffordu]

9. Only a rifle can stop the cheating.

He has no model for that.

I'm concerned for that, too.

[Curtland1015]

11. The Repugs can cheat, but there's no way they can cheat 9% worth

without being caught. It's too big a hill for even the Rovebots to get past.

[tbyg52]

14. No, it isn't, but info like this coming out makes it less likely that they will.

People are WATCHING this time!!!!

[Raffi Ella]

10. Yeah,

apparently he's been right about the last 5 elections so... yeah!


WOOOOoo! :toast:

[Orsino]

23. Obama's realness is only one factor.

We have to hope that his realness and dedication, and ours, count for more than the corrupt opposition and American hate, fear and ignorance.

[Hope And Change]

4. K & R!Thanks for posting!

[SeaLyons]

5. YES!!!

I'm sticking my head in a paper bag as we speak.

GOBAMA!!!!

[Raffi Ella]

12. lol, it's been a pretty rough week

:hug:

[terrya]

6. Very nice! I'll recommend this.

If this holds true, he'll win a pretty decisive majority. :-)

I'm tired of reading negativity today.

[SeaLyons]

7. Kicking....

:kick:

[gademocrat7]

13. k & r

[amborin]

15. academics are in total disagreement...he represents one minority view

there was a long article summarizing the conflicting views of academics whose specialty is us prez elections, and who are studing this one

they are in disagreement with one another, as academics usually are

bottom line:

the majority view holds that due to several factors, O will squeak out a very narrow victory

(this was before palin)

folks: imho, the campaign is not doing enough

they may know how to win primaries, but....

i'm out here in so cal and don't see the nationwide ads

but i did see the rethugs' 'rosie hte riveter' ad, with palin as rosie

my heart sank

this will SO resonate with the working class that WE need


i just feel our campaign is doing a half ass job

we need to provide the 4 stories.....

learn FRAMING, etc..

[Gregorian]

16. Karl Rove must feel so useless.

Maybe once the republicreatures realize he's worn, they'll toss him to the jaws of justice.

This feels good. There's debate about Ohio, but I read good things. Obama has 60 offices in that state. Or more.

Snowball. This is going to be fun.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. Please listen to Professor Abramowitz! He was my political science professor

when I was a student at Emory. He has correctly predicted presidential elections (yes, even the stolen ones) since 1988.

Pay much more attention to the state-by-state polls. DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT get weary with the national polls!!

Calm down. Relax. Don't panic. Get busy.

Donate, phonebank, canvass, talk to family and friends...

[Raffi Ella]

24. AMEN!!

Thank you :dem:

[greyghost]

18. K&R!

[flamingdem]

19. If they take 3% with voter theft we still can do it... GOBAMA!

This is positive news, thanks for posting

[SeaLyons]

20. Kicking for Positive Post...

:kick:

[Raffi Ella]

25. Thanks cricket

And thanks to everyone who rec'ed this - I'm SO HAPPY to see it on the greatest page - GOBAMA!! :dem:

[rockymountaindem]

21. I think he's totally wrong

If, *if* Obama wins, it will probably be something like 48 to 46 for McCain, with the screwballs Nader, Barr and Paul picking up the remainder.

[Cosmocat]

22. It is going to be close ...

No ifs, ands or butts about it ...

Out of the gates 80-85% of the votes are split one way or another, along partisan lines. You really only have at most about 20% of the votes in play, and with the media COMPLETELY in the bag for the Rs, this race is going to be close, it just is a matter of HOW close.