Cillizza: 10 states most likely to switch Presidential party preference (Michigan is the new Ohio?)

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Friday Line: Defining the Playing Field

....Here's our take on the ten states most likely to switch their 2004 presidential preference. As always, the number one ranked state is the most likely to switch sides in the fall election. Agree with our picks? Disagree?....

(NOTE: Numbers 10 through 6 are GOP Virginia, GOP Florida, "GOP" Ohio, Democratic Pennsylvania, and Democratic New Hampshire.)

5. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent): The Fix generally avoids bold predictions but here's one we can't resist: Michigan in 2008 will be the Ohio of 2004 or the Florida of 2000. That is, the Wolverine State will be the central battleground in the fight for the White House this fall. Why? First and foremost because the economy is, far and away, the biggest issue in this election and nowhere are those hard times felt more than in Michigan. Second, both Obama and McCain believe they have a reasonable path to 50 percent plus one in the state on Nov. 4. It is going to be an absolute war for the next 54 days. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent): Democratic and Republican operatives seem to agree that the Rocky Mountain State is a golden (pun intended) opportunity for Obama. Democrats have scored across-the-board gains (two House seats, a Senate seat and the governor's mansion) over the last few elections and staging the Democratic National Convention in Denver is sure to further fire up the party's base for the fall. (Previous ranking: 7)

3. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent): The high profile Democratic caucus in the state earlier this year did wonders for party registration numbers; as of August, there were nearly 458,000 registered Democrats in Nevada as compared to 397,000 registered Republicans. Still, Nevada's voters tend to be more conservative on social issues like guns and abortion and the Western appeal of the McCain/Palin ticket should not be overlooked. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent): The coming fall election looks like a slam dunk for Democrats in the Land of Enchantment. Senate Republicans have given up on the open seat race to replace Pete Domenici, and House Democrats are optimistic about their chances in taking over two open seats. With a Democratic wave seemingly building, Obama's campaign feels very good about his chances here. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent): McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said recently that he felt better about their chances in Iowa. Hard to see why. Obama retains a quasi native son appeal in the Hawkeye State and the most recent poll we've seen gave him a 15 point edge. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/defining_the_playing_field.html#more

[speedoo]

1. IIRC, Obama has not yet spent a lot of time in Michigan.

But McSame has and McSame has also spent a lot of advertising $ there.

Obviously Obama has to win Michigan, assuming he does not win either Ohio or Florida, both of which seem to be very much in play.

[TahitiNut]

11. He was in Flint and Farmington Hills just in the last week.

He was at Hart Plaza on Labor Day. While I'd sure like to see him here a lot more, it's NOT like he hasn't been here.

[sufrommich]

17. Biden in Flat Rock Monday. Very blue collar town. nt

[Diamonique]

18. Obama and Biden have been spending lots of time here in MI recently.

And I'm sure they'll spend more.

Keep in mind that during the primaries McCain came here and said "Your jobs are gone and there's nothing that can bring them back." Folks in Michigan haven't forgotten that message of doom and gloom.

[DarthDem]

2. Goofy Piece

Colorado less important than Nevada? No. And Michigan is. Not. In. Play. I'm very happy for the Clown campaign to waste its resources there, but it just isn't going to "flip." Period.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Not less important -- one notch less likely to change party. And...

only his guess. He always adds, "Agree with our picks? Disagree?"

[DarthDem]

5. Sorry. Mistype

I meant to say "less likely." :-) Thanks for correcting my slip.

Yeah, I think he couldn't be more off. His rankings strike me as those of someone who hasn't spent any time in Pennsylvania, and the ranking of Nevada ahead of Colorado is just strange. Actually, though, that's probably good news for Obama.

[DeepModem Mom]

7. There are so many polls and Electoral Map guesses, they make my head spin.

I was looking at an interactive Electoral map yesterday where you could make your own guesses, and I gave up before I really started because there's so much conflicting info out there. And even though we're really close to the Election, the news cycles move so fast that a lot could happen between now and then. The debates will likely be important. I don't think anybody really knows much at all.

[DarthDem]

10. I Think Common Sense Helps

When you consider the state of the economy, demographics, new registrant stats, and 2000 and 2004 results, it's really, really hard to believe that, say, Obama can't flip Nevada. REEEEEEEEALLY hard. However, that's still a tossup. But when ScottyRazz tells me that Obama is losing New Mexico, or that fundie or some other pollster claims that Obama is down by a boatload in Ohio, I just turn on the Commonsenseometer and adjust or disregard. :-)

[bornskeptic]

13. Kerry lost NV by just 2.6%, while he lost CO by 4.7%.

However, Obama seems to be polling a little better in CO, so there are arguments to be made both ways. I don't think it's bizarre to think NV is more likely, nor that it would be bizarre to say the opposite. I expect Obama to take both.

[DarthDem]

19. So Do I!

And I said "strange," not the much stronger "bizarre." ;-)

I agree with you that there are arguments to be made both ways, but at this point I'm very optimistic about Colorado based on the polling there, and the fact that the state has a Democratic governor, just elected one Democratic U.S. Senator, and is poised to become what I like to call a "triple D state" (governor and both senators are Democrats) in January. The polling in Nevada seems closer, there's a Rethuglican governor, and Ensign (ugh) to go along with Harry Reid. However, again, I still think, as you do, that Barack will take both.

[chascarrillo]

8. Oklahoma is the state most likely to change parties.

Agree with my pick? Disagree?

[GrizzlyMan]

14. As an Okie myself I disagree

I'm not sure if this was sarcastic, but the Repukes could run a moldy ham sandwich here and it would drub any Dem presidential pick. The latest poll I've seen here shows McCsame with a healthy 30 pt. lead. This state hasn't gone Dem in 44 years and there's no chance that trend will be reversed this time around. In fact, this is one of the few states that is trending more repuke.

[darius15]

16. You're kidding right?

Recent polls:
McCain 63, Obama 32
McCain 65, Obama 32
McCain 56, Obama 24

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ok/oklahoma_mccain_vs_obama-620.html

[ClarkUSA]

3. I stopped listening to Cillizza when he ranked Palin's convention speech as "Best Speech"

:wtf:

[Major Hogwash]

9. That sounds just like something Cillizza would say. What a complete shill.

Her voice is really grating. Man, I hope she doesn't get too much tv time in the next 50 days.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. In fairness, 3 of 5 of his best Convention speech picks were by Dems --

Bill Clinton, Obama and Governor Schweitzer. And, of course, he was not alone among the pundits praising Palin's speech as ranking somewhere alongside the Gettysburg Address.

[tandem5]

6. And Ohio was the new Florida

I don't like this trend.

[darius15]

15. Forgot where, but I heard Obama is actually winning rural Iowa

if that's true, McCain could probably be better off campaigning in New York.