Diageo/Hotline 9/12/08 - Obama 45 (+1), McCain 44 (-2)

[MadBadger]

Barack Obama and Joe Biden today took their first lead in the week-old Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. Obama/Biden now lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 45-44% -- a 3% swing from McCain/Palin's 46-44% lead one day ago. The Dem ticket's increases since yesterday where driven mainly by gains among women and Inds.

Obama/Biden now lead women by 8%, rebuilding a gender gap which had nearly disappeared with their 2% lead in yesterday's release. McCain/Palin meanwhile lead men by 9%, up from their 7% margin on 9/10.

Among Inds, the GOP ticket's lead declined steadily throughout the week and now stands at 6%. That single-digit margin is just half of their 12% lead in yesterday's release and a fraction of their 19% advantage on 9/8. Both tickets remained relatively constant among Dems and GOPers.

McCain's fav ratings also changed significantly among Inds. The GOP nominee dropped from a 64% fav rating on 9/10 to 57% on 9/11; at the same time, his unfav jumped from 29% to 35%. McCain's favs among Inds had been as high as 68% on 9/8.

Today's survey, conducted 9/9-11 by FD, is the fifth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 913 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_3.html

[jenmito]

1. K&R-GREAT to see!

Thanks for posting it!

[MadBadger]

3. No problem

[mvd]

2. More evidence the bounce is fading

Often things like this are indicators for a new trend. Remember the CBS poll showing things tied when Obama was ahead?

[Pirate Smile]

4. This is what is critical and was bound to happen (if the world hasn't gone insane):

"McCain's fav ratings also changed significantly among Inds. The GOP nominee dropped from a 64% fav rating on 9/10 to 57% on 9/11; at the same time, his unfav jumped from 29% to 35%. McCain's favs among Inds had been as high as 68% on 9/8."


Is this from the lipstick fiasco? Everyone knew it was a cynical lie. How long can you just lie to people's faces and have them think you are a good guy.

[Arugula Latte]

5. I like the trend. nt

[ClarkUSA]

6. Just wait until Obama's attack ads/aggressive new messaging sink in... McCain's bounce will go --->

:nuke: POOF!

[Jennicut]

7. Rasmussen is starting to look kind of off now. Trend is favoring Obama not McLame