This election is like 1960 -- Obama CAN Win

[liberalpragmatist]

Real Clear Politics' aggregate poll has it McCain 47.5, Obama 45.0. The aggregate also has Obama narrowly ahead of McCain in the Electoral College, 273-265.

Do I like the position that we're in. No. I would much rather be ahead of McCain. Given that I expected that post-conventions Obama would be at a consistent 3-5 point lead, this is certainly disappointing. But I think it's important to keep the race in perspective and realize that we are NOT far behind and that we can easily win this thing.

I think a lot of people's despair is simply over the fact that we all really expect to win this year. This isn't like 2000 or even 2004, when most people realized we were fighting uphill battles. With the right track / wrong track numbers so high, with Bush's numbers in the toilet and with the generic ballot all heavily favoring Democrats, why shouldn't we be crushing McCain?

There are several factors. Number one, John McCain is not the same person as George W. Bush. Sure, he'll follow mostly the same policies -- but for people who don't vote based on issues (and that's a big chunk of the electorate), that doesn't matter. The point is that there anger is reserved for Bush and doesn't necessarily transfer to McCain. Moreover, McCain spent most of the decade as one of the most popular politicians in the country and his fame came from being a thorn in Bush's side. As much as we hammer home the message that McCain = "more of the same", a not-insignificant chunk of the population isn't going to drop what is such a well-entrenched impression. Simply put, McCain has one of the strongest brands in politics and is doing far better than any other Republican could do.

Second, Obama does lose some votes because people see him as "unfamiliar" and "inexperienced." And, yes, race does play a role in this too.

Too many people have compared this race to 1980, when Reagan unexpectedly beat Carter in a landslide after being tied or behind for much of the race. That may yet happen -- remember that McCain has only now reached 47-48% in the polls and his numbers have typically been lower (42-45%). Yet there are some important differences.

For one thing, this is an open-seat race. In 1980, Reagan faced in incumbent. Had he gone up against Ted Kennedy or a Democrat who wasn't Carter, he'd probably have still won, but it probably would have been much closer. Open-seat races are often (though not always) closer than races involving an incumbent.

For a number of reasons, then, this race is really a lot more like 1960, when JFK narrowly beat Richard Nixon. The generic ballot that year heavily favored the Democrats. The Democrats had swept the '58 midterms. Although Eisenhower was still fairly popular, he was seen as a non-partisan figure, and support for him didn't translate to the rest of the Republican Party, which was widely seen as out-of-touch.

Yet Richard Nixon nearly won. Kennedy was seen as inexperienced and too flashy. He was Catholic, which was a major handicap in much of the country. His support for Civil Rights made many Southern voters suspect. Despite the fact that the Republican Party was unpopular, Nixon seemed experienced and "safer." He was deemed more competent in foreign policy. And he ran a pretty liberal, so many moderates and independents felt safe in voting for him (in those days, GOP presidential candidates typically ran well to the left of the Congressional Republican party).

Throughout the fall, the lead bounced back and forth. Nixon was ahead at the time of the first debate. Yet in the end, Kennedy pulled out a narrow win.

That should be both a note of encouragement. And a reminder that polls in September rarely predict what will happen in November. But at the same time, Kennedy's win shouldn't inspire complacency. The point is that with all the Democratic advantages that year -- strong generic ballot preferences, the most charismatic Democratic candidate since FDR, etc. -- it was still a nailbiter. Nixon VERY nearly won.

So don't get complacent. Get out there, volunteer, phone bank and donate. Do so knowing that yes, we could lose. But don't despair, because we could very well win. We aren't far behind and we still retain a lot of advantages.

[FrenchieCat]

1. I have always thought so.......

always.

We will win, but it won't be easy. It will take each and everyone of us! :patriot:

[melody]

2. Obama WILL win

This is the best they can do ... and we're still ahead in the EC.

[secondwind]

3. don't forget, there are more Democrats than Republicans,

number 1, and number 2, those newly-registered Dems aren't being polled, and #3, don't underestimate those young voters who can't be polled, because they use cell phones!

WE WILL WIN!