Barack has a better shot at Florida with mcsame/palin ticket

[angee_is_mad]

For so good news and no I am not a political strategist, but like bush I'm going with a gut feeling. I feel that we got Florida because of the its demographics. Their is a substantial minority population (which are under polled) and a large Jewish population. Remember miss sarah and her church has said some insensitive things about Jews.

When Mayor Koch goes down there to campaign, it will basically be a wrap. This is my gut feeling. The only thing miss palin is doing is galvanizing a base that would have never voted for any democrat.

This race is going to come down to turn out. That means GOTV in the growing hispanic population out West, the young voters, and a Black turnout in the 90s percent.

Typically Blacks for democrat in the 80 percentile, Barack will definitely hit the 90s.

FIRED UP AND READY TO GO!!!!

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Send this email to people in FL. Palin Jewish baited in her first campaign

Email I received:


John C. Stein was Sarah Palin's opponent for Governor. He is not Jewish but of course has a Jewish name which could be a liability in race of that nature.

Stein:

"Sarah comes in with all this ideological stuff, and I was like, 'Whoa,'" said Stein, who lost the election. "But that got her elected: abortion, gun rights, term limits and the religious born-again thing. I'm not a church-going guy and that was another issue: 'We will have our first Christian mayor" (said Palin.)

"I thought: 'Holy cow, what's happening here? Does that mean she thinks I'm Jewish or Islamic?" recalled Stein, who was raised Lutheran.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080903/ARTICLE/809030376/-1/newssitemap

The mayor of Wasilla before Sarah Palin, John C. Stein, was also a Republican, though the office was and continues to be non-partisan. Mayor Stein was defeated by Sarah Palin in a campaign that brought in the NRA, Republican partisans, and a whisper campaign that Mayor Stein was Jewish (he is a Christian, but is "proud of such a reputation"). He now runs the Sitka Sound Science Center, a marine research facility in Sitka, Alaska.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacob-alperinsheriff/sarah-palin-instituted-ra_b_125833.html

[Pirate Smile]

2. Wow. Who did you get that from? I would think that would be very effective.

Obviously, this isn't the first time she has been a polarizing figure. That is how she got her start.

[angee_is_mad]

3. That's why rove chose her

its not like mcsame has anything to do with his own campaign. He has sold his soul to the devil.

[MidwestTransplant]

16. Was sent to me by a friend in NY

Not the least bit surprising...at lest to me.

[DefenseLawyer]

4. Florida is still part of the deep south

People who only go to Miami forget that sometimes. We have an uphill climb in Florida.

[angee_is_mad]

5. Its winable

eventhough it is the deep south, Florida is different with the demographic makeup.

If you look at the names of Florida's representatives, you will realize that Miss, Ga, Al, La, SC, TX,NC, do not have representaives with those last names.

All of Florida may not be as progressive as Miami, but I'm sure that Florida as a whole is more socially progressive than the other deep south States.

[DefenseLawyer]

6. I can't agree

Miami is culturally diverse, probably as culturally diverse as anywhere in the nation. While it is diverse, I'm not sure I would call Miami as a whole, and particularly the batista cuban community, "progressive". Northern Florida is absolutely not socially progressive by any measure. It is as deep south conservative, with the same racial politics as Mississippi or Alabama.

[JCMach1]

21. Not quite so simple... Florida is a deeply divided state...

with Redneck redstate in the north with a few liberal pockets (namely Gainesville and Tallahassee). The Southwest coast is country-club Repug. The South-East coast is largely northern liberal (with a couple of conservative Cuban pockets in Miami). The I-4 corridor is composed of swing-voters... younger, less-political, and more independent-minded.

If you look at the state as a whole, it looks a lot like the country.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. If You Look At The Demographics Florida Is An Execllent Proxy For The Nation*

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html




*Except it skews a bit older... The suggestion that it is similar to the rest of the south, demographically, economically, culturally, whatever is not supported by the facts...Kerry got 47% of the vote in Florida which is 1% than he received nationwide....I live in Greater Orlando...Kerry actually did better in Orange County (the most populous county in Central Florida) then he did in the rest of the country, ergo:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2004


By the way Gainesville and Tallahassee are in North Florida and they are Democratic bastions...

[Awsi Dooger]

7. A VP nominee is not going to have negative impact in a state

That's nonsense. Florida is tight because it always figured to be tight, a state with 20% liberals and 34% conservatives. That guarantees tight if the national margin is basically 50/50.

Palin won't have negative impact in Florida any more than she'll have major boost elsewhere. The second convention always provides a massive bounce. This time Palin just happened to be there. And she does give semi-bigoted types an excuse to vote for McCain while pretending they aren't doing it because of dislike for Obama.

Florida is still uphill compared to Ohio.

[Skwmom]

13. Well they think the VP can pull McCain over the finish line because

they can sell two messages at once.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. Don't forget the senior citizen population... they may be senile but they ain't stupid

They know McCain won't live long and they sure as heck don't want the country in Caribou Barbie's hands.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

9. You forget that many of those seniors view McCain as young...

Ok, maybe not young, but "seasoned" as opposed to Obama's "green".

There are a lot of seniors who are prejudiced against younger generations.

However, I would think they'd find Obama's plan to eliminate the income tax for seniors earning less than $50,000 extremely appealing. Especially when they often have to pay through the nose for their prescriptions.

[Samantha]

10. He should be broadcasting with a bull horn that McCain wants

to privatize Social Security. That should help!

Sam

[MarjorieG]

11. I'm more concerned about the voting-and the law that probits counting of ballots once scanned.

And the purging.

[madfloridian]

12. Chuck Schumer was down at Century Village last week.

He told them how it was. He said they were Americans first and Jews second and that Obama was best for the country.

[Hamlette]

14. Here is a great story about Obama and Florida

Like many Obama supporters, I’ve been in a poll-induced funk recently. So I went to the Obama HQ in downtown Orlando looking for a t-shirt, a bumper sticker, something, anything, to make myself not feel so damn worried. Here’s what I found:

1. A brisk campaign operation staffed mostly by 25-35 year olds, all at computers, all analyzing data on GOTV operations.

2. After speaking with my precinct captain who was present, she told me that since August 1, the downtown HQ has registered 80,000 new voters. Let that number sink in. In the last 40 days or so, they’ve registered an average of 2,000 voters per day.
3. Consider that Florida was won by Bush in 2004 by 380,000 votes. Nader got 33,000 votes. I don’t even think he’s on the ballot in Florida this year. Assume that most of those go to Obama. The margin, to beat the Bush turnout in 2004, is 350,000 (give or take 50,000 votes.)

4. To win Florida, Obama needs everything Kerry got plus 400,000 votes.

5. Of those 80,000 newly registered voters (whose info won’t be available for pollsters for weeks, if not ever, before the election), the campaign has identified over 80% as Obama supporters. That’s 64,000 new Obama votes since Aug 1.

6. Assume they decrease their registration by 50% in September, and 50% in October. After all, there are only so many people not registered to vote. That would be another 60,000 voters, with approximately 48,000 new Obama votes, who can’t be polled. All together, that’s 112,000 new Obama votes. In Central Florida alone. Since Aug 1. 25% of the 400k to get Florida’s 27 electoral votes. Since Aug 1.

7. Of course, you have to get people to the polls. However, the precinct captain said that the 80% support of the newly registered voters has a built-in no-show formula.

8. I mentioned my worry over the polls. Without condescension, without a dirty look, or a snide quip, she said, calmly as possible, “we aren’t running the Florida campaign based on polls, we’re running it based on votes. There are so many people who have signed up to vote that pollsters can’t even reach, that the only thing the campaign is looking at right now is the GOTV operation and their own internal polls which are run much more specifically than, for instance, the state Mason-Dixon polls commissioned by the Florida newspapers.”

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/patience-and-st.html#more

[SilverSRT4Turbo]

15. Ground game will be the deciding factor here

I've been telling everyone I know to get registered ASAP and to drag and pull everyone they can to the voting booth this year....Its all we have....the polls will never favor obama here.

[JCMach1]

22. The key question is whether JEBtm will put his machine in motion to propel the groundgame

Any word on that?

If he does, most likely Obama will lose. If not, it will be a toss-up.

[Democat]

17. They need to run ads about Palin's anti-semitism

Go after her connection, through her church, to known anti semites.

Do you think that Republicans are going to give Obama a pass on his non-existent "muslim" connections? Of course they aren't. They will slam Obama brutally using lies to try to scare Jewish voters of Florida. If Obama doesn't strike first, it will look like he's on the defensive yet again.

Obama needs to get on the offensive and hammer Palin as an anti semite right now, before the Republicans say the same about Obama. Put the Republicans on the defensive for once!

[Top Cat]

18. We need some jewish spokes people to help drive the message home

[lamp_shade]

19. I live in the Tampa/St. Pete area and am surrounded by Ron Paul yard signs.

They're all over the place. I've only seen 2-3 bumper stickers... but lots of yard signs.

[grantcart]

20. Plouffe said that they had identified 600,000 AA that were registered but

did not vote in 2004

[secondwind]

23. who said Ed Koch will campaign for Barack? He's 82 years old