This past week,McCain spent twice as much in Pa.as Obama!

[Bravo Zulu]

McCain spending more in Pa.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
By Timothy McNulty, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Over the past week, Sen. John McCain's campaign spent twice as much across Pennsylvania on television advertising as Sen. Barack Obama's camp.

The Republican has also outspent his Democratic opponent overall on ads since the general election opened up in June and aired 30 percent more commercial spots statewide, according to data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group in Arlington, Va. The estimated $24 million in Pennsylvania television spending for both candidates is the most in any state in the nation.

Of course Mr. McCain has reason to spend more and Mr. Obama less: The state has tilted toward Democratic candidates in the last races for president, governor and U.S. Senate, and Democrats here hold a 1.1 million registration edge over the GOP.

Republicans arguably need to go full throttle to make the race closer, while Democrats can hang back.

"This is what campaigns do -- try to out-perform in places they do not do as well and hope to maintain in places they should do well," said Evan Tracey, the head of CMAG.

Underscoring that strategy, the McCain camp is targeting the Philadelphia area with many of its ads, where Mr. Obama is thought to be strongest, while doing less in Pittsburgh (where it is also cheaper to buy air time). Over the past week, McCain's campaign spent $1.1 million to Obama's $550,000 in Philadelphia, and $400,000 to Obama's $200,000 in Pittsburgh, by CMAG estimates.

Statewide, the ad spending was $2 million and $1 million respectively the past week.

The strategy may be paying off, with polls showing the Pennsylvania race getting tighter: A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday said Mr. Obama's lead was down to three percentage points among likely voters, down from a seven-point lead weeks earlier. Mr. McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate was helping attract white women voters in the state, the poll found.

There is little evidence that increases in advertising lead directly to increases in votes, Temple University political science professor Michael G. Hagen noted yesterday. He too said the Republican convention, featuring Ms. Palin, was probably the biggest factor in the polls tightening.

Yesterday, after a one-day truce on Sept. 11, both sides released new negative ads: one from Mr. Obama makes fun of Mr. McCain's lack of computer savvy, saying he's out of touch on economic issues, and one from Mr. McCain, called "Disrespectful," criticizes Democratic attacks on Ms. Palin. In another new ad, Mr. Obama speaks directly into the camera on calls for change in Washington.

Along with the McCain camp's bump in advertising -- especially those targeted at the expensive Philadelphia market -- comes a bump in bills, and his campaign will be forced to weigh how long it will target the state, or if the resources would be better spent elsewhere.

"With that kind of money, it shows that right now McCain is putting a lot of horsepower into the state. If they get to the 1st of October and it looks like a state they can win, they'll probably keep it up. If it looks like they haven't closed the gap, they'll probably redirect resources to a state like Michigan or Ohio," Mr. Tracey said Thursday.

There is also the theory that ads produce better bang for the buck closer to November, and both candidates would be better served to save their advertising spending until the last two weeks of the race. That is what the George W. Bush campaign did with success in 2000, especially in Florida, said Mr. Hagen, who has co-authored an upcoming book on that race.

"People's memory for advertising seems fairly short," he said, "and having images, ideas and policies fresh in minds is terribly valuable."

Since June, the McCain camp has aired roughly 18,000 television spots on television stations statewide and the Obama camp 14,000, according to CMAG estimates. The McCain campaign spent an estimated $6 million in the Philadelphia market to the Obama camp's $4.8 million, and $2.4 million to Obama's $2 million.

The Arlington, Va., company tracks advertising on broadcast, cable and local television stations using software that identifies unique sound patterns in campaign commercials, and produces spending estimates based on when, where and how often they are aired.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08257/911986-470.stm

[grantcart]

1. thanks for the reminder - time to send in another check

[Tunkamerica]

2. unique sound patterns?

[skids]

3. Yeah much more accurate...

Than putting an intern in a room with 5 TVs and a bottle of No-Doze. L-)

[JimGinPA]

4. Obama's Campaign Opened His 200th Office In PA Last Week

I hope McSame keeps spending a ton of money here in PA, where he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning.