Florida a battleground state again this year but it IS winnable THIS time with YOUR help

[ddeclue]

There are a number of things going on this year which make Florida much more likely to be won by the Democrats than in the last 2 cycles but it requires YOUR HELP.

Florida represents 10% of the total electoral college vote needed to win, 27 votes. The difference between winning and losing Florida is a 54 vote swing in the electoral college. It is also the difference between winning and losing the White House.

Right now, Republicans control the state house and the executive mansion and the congressional delegation but the momentum is on the Democrats side.

The Republicans have been losing state house seats since 2006 (9 since then) throughout the 2006 election and a series of special elections. Alan Grayson looks set to take back Ric Keller's congressional seat (CD8) in Central Florida and all in all it looks like a year for Dems to win here.

Obama has a huge ground game here in Orlando and I see a lot more Obama signs and stickers and buttons around town than McCain signs and stickers.

South Florida will definitely be Democrat, North Florida will definitely be Republican except for Alachua county (University of Florida) and Leon County (state capitol of Tallahassee).

The battleground is here in Central Florida with the I-4 corridor and we've been working our asses off here for a while building a ground game.

Especially helpful will be the Grayson campaign in CD8 which covers parts of Orange, Lake, Marion, and Osceola counties in Central FL and which has a tremendous ground game that has been registering voters and getting thousands of Democrats to sign up for absentee ballots. Grayson beat his establishment (read DLC) opponent and previous Democratic standard bearer Charlie Stuart by a 20 point margin in the primaries in a 5 way race 48% to 28% (and no one else even close) because of his ground game and a really good ad. (You can help Grayson by donating at his website)

Also helpful in Central Florida is ACORN which has registered tens of thousands of new voters in the last couple of years. Because of their efforts, registration in Orange County has shifted from nearly even to a 60,000 vote Democratic lead (230,000 to 170,000) over Republicans.

If you live in the area please come out and volunteer for one of the local campaigns, one of the Congressional campaigns and/or the Obama campaign.

I am getting ready to take a job in South Florida and won't be able to help as much up here as I have in the past in Orlando (I'll still be back on weekends) but I'll try to do what I can remotely and try to help out in Broward County where I lived from 2000-2004 with their candidates and campaigns during the week if possible, but overall I'm still going to have to cut back.

If you can't help locally because you don't live in Florida but if you live in a solidly blue state: (California, Massachutsetts, New York, New Jersey, etc.) and would like to help us win Florida here are several things you can do:

1) Move to Florida if you can and register to vote and vote down here. Books close one month before the election, move here for 3 months (mid September to mid December) and if you don't like it move home afterwards.. :)

2) Take a working vacation to Florida and find a campaign to work on down here. Hey we have nice winters! Make it a weekend, a week, a month, whatever works for you.

3) DONATE DONATE DONATE. If you can't come down to Florida, send your money to Florida instead... Money is very important, find a campaign you like (not just Obama's) and donate to it.

4) Send me your name and contact info through a private message here and I can try to coordinate a remote phone banking effort between you and the Obama campaign (or one of the Central Florida Congressional or Florida state legislature campaigns.) Remote phone banking helped us win Orange County in 2004 for Kerry by a slim margin because we used them to chase our absentee ballots and got nearly all of them back (which was a substantial improvement over past elections.)

The point is that if you live in a solidly blue state you won't really change the Presidential race there by helping there but you can if you pick a battle ground state (it doesn't have to be Florida but I would rather you helped us since we have a good ground game going here already) to help out remotely.

Thanks,

Doug De Clue
Orlando, FL
[e-mail]
Please help!

[Coexist]

1. Please help us out if your state is safe.

We CAN win Florida. We WILL win Florida with your help.

[Honeycombe8]

2. I'm not tuning in for a "battle" in FL. Not ever again. Someone either wins it, or he doesn't.

Obama's plan never counted on Florida, so if he wins it, great. But his plan is to increase the Dems' states in the west, and get some of those midwestern states (MI, OH).

Pundits like to call FL a swing state. It really is a Repig state. Every once in a blue moon, it can swing, so I guess technically it is a swing state. But generally, it's a red state.

With Mayor Koch campaigning there, Obama may have a chance there. But I wouldn't bet money on it. As I say, it'd be great if he wins it. But Obama's time would be better spent in states where he has a better chance of winning and that fits in with his original game plan (OH, NH, MI).

[ddeclue]

4. You don't know Florida, you really don't know what you are talking about.

Florida is shifting Democrat:

I didn't even mention that because people keep moving here from the Northeast and from Puerto Rico that our registration is shifting Democrat in this state.

I've been working for the Democrats in this state since 2003 and I can speak with some authority on the isue.

Florida IS a swing state and we CAN win it but we DO need your help.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Honeycombe8]

8. I meant no offense. But the facts are: How often has FL actually voted for a Dem for Prez? nt

[ddeclue]

10. This only proves my point that you DON'T know Florida...

You can't run around making historical comparisons like that because they simply aren't accurate.

Florida is a growth state and a transient state.

Over 50% of the 531,336 voters (as of August 13, 2008) in Orange County Florida (Orlando) were NOT registered to vote here for the Al Gore/George Bush election of 2000.

The registration is shifting towards the Democrats down here.

From nearly even, back then it has gone to 60,000 in the Dems favor in Orlando. This is happening across the state. Northeasterners from NY, MA, NJ, etc. are relocating here shifting the state to the blue. Also there has been and continues to be a huge Puerto Rican and South and Central American influx into Florida which is shifting the state blue. Hispanics (with the exception of Miami Cubans) are statistically going to vote Democratic 2 to 1. Even within the Miami Cubans the older generation is dying out and the younger generation is more Democratic.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL
(formerly of Ft. Lauderdale FL and returning there soon for a new job)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. 1996

Kerry got 47.1% of the pop vote in 04... That's only 1.2% less than what he received in the rest of the nation...Since 1992 Florida has been within a couple of points or so of the national average for Democrats at the presidential level...

Florida is your quintessential swing or purple state...

That being said, there are certain Democrats who are better fits for this state than others...

[Honeycombe8]

43. FL is not really a swing state. It went for Clinton in '96. It was over a decade before then...

that it voted for a Dem. And over a decade before THEN that it voted for a Dem.

In other words, it votes Republican, except every once in a blue moon.

There are states better suited to spend money and time in that are more reliable than votes-Repub-almost-all-the-time Florida. Even Ohio votes more often for Dems than Florida.

[sandnsea]

9. NM, CO, NH, IA

Those are the 4 states we have to have, and then we don't even need Ohio. IA and NH look great right now, so it's really just NM and CO. I think the south is going to have to fix itself.

[ddeclue]

11. NO... the candidate has to stop writing OFF the South.

Clinton won in the South. Al Gore wrote off the South even though he was from the South and so did John Kerry. THAT is why they lost. You can't just write off the entire region and try to win without it. The South IS winnable if Democrats stop looking down their noses at us and ignoring us.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[sandnsea]

15. Not until you quit fighting the Civil War

If there was ever an opportunity to win some southern states, it should have been with Obama. Georgia has McCain up 13, North Carolina 11, 16 in Arkansas and Louisiana. Every southern state is so far up McCain's ass that they're skewing the national polls. It's ridiculous. I give up.

Oh, and I live in a town that went Bush in a big way in 2000. Nobody came here and changed this town blue. WE did it ourselves. That's the only way it can be done.

[ddeclue]

17. You really ARE a dumbass you know?

You really don't know anything about how to run or win a campaign nor do you know anything about the South.

You are stereotyping people who live in the South based on Gone With the Wind or the Dukes of Hazzard.

Did you know that Atlanta was the site of the 1996 Olympics?

Did you know that Atlanta was the focal point of the Civil Rights movement?

Did you know that NASA has space centers all over the South?

Kennedy Space Center in Merritt Island Florida
Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville Alabama
Stennis Space Center in Mississippi
Michoud Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
NASA Langley in Virginia

Did you know that Miami is the center for banking for Latin America?

Did you know that they build cars in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee?

Did you know that the South is home to world renowned schools such as Emory University, Georgia Tech, Duke University, and the University of Miami?

We aren't just a bunch of hicks and trust me, I've lived in Michigan and in Arizona and have a brother in New Jersey. There are rednecks everywhere, apparently even in Alaska. The South has no special monopoly on stupidity or racism or living in the past.

Grow up.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[sandnsea]

21. Oh cheerist, face reality

I have family in the south, I've lived in the south. I don't live there anymore for a reason.

Numbers don't lie. The south is so far to the right that they skew the national poll numbers. It's not the "D" because southern states, like Arkansas, will elect Democrats if they're SOUTHERN Democrats. Well guess what, the rest of the country doesn't always want a conservative southern Democrat as President. We can't make the south change and accept progressives, southerners have to do that themselves.

[ddeclue]

22. You don't know what you are talking about.

Thanks for your bigotry and stereotyping...

What an idiot...

[sandnsea]

24. The numbers don't lie

There's no point in continuing to delude ourselves into believing people will suddenly give up their religious and political and cultural beliefs because they won't. We will never win a Presidential election in the south unless the most basic beliefs about life and this country are challlenged. Al Gore couldn't even win in Tennessee. Don't tell me it's bigotry to point out the truth of where we're at. If you can't discuss the reality of the problem without calling me names, then you just don't have a grasp on the facts.

[ddeclue]

27. Numbers lie all the time...

if you are talking about polls.
The polls are hardly ever meaningful because they aren't conducted amongst LIKELY voters, just registered ones.

and

NO IT IS YOU WHO CLEARLY HAS NO GRASP OF THE FACTS.

I have been working on campaigns in Florida for 5 years and have been doing so even up to the level of PICKING VOTER TARGETS as a consultant. You don't even LIVE HERE so don't tell me what you THINK you know.

You idiotically lump all people who live in the South into one pile assuming that they are all white Southern Baptists who have lived for generations in the South. That is simply NOT true. The South has been changing drastically since World War II and especially in the last 25 years. There are huge inflows of new people into urban centers like Atlanta, Nashville, Miami, Raleigh, Charlotte, and others from places in the North and from Latin America and Puerto Rico. The South is changing drastically.

Culture is changing drastically also because of a national satellite based media and American culture is becoming much more homogeneous. We don't all listen to country music and gospel in the South, sorry but it isn't even close.


Gore DID NOT TRY to win in Tennseee, that's why he lost - duh...

Grow up and stop being a bigot.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[sandnsea]

30. I have lived there in the past

I have family who are there now. Maybe you would want to pay attention to what people say before you attack them.

I now live in Oregon which is safely blue. It obviously doesn't mean we don't have white Southern Baptist bigots here too. We do. There isn't one block in this country that doesn't have people with differing beliefs. Saying that everybody in the south isn't the same is not an argument. It goes without saying. Duh.

Unfortunately, there aren't enough people who will accept northerners or yankees or liberals or commie pinkos or N lovers or whatever cute name any given southern bigot uses to describe any Democrat that doesn't come from the south. The entire country could come down there and talk to people and it wouldn't do a bit of good. Southern Bigots Won't Listen to anybody from the rest of the country - that's the damn problem to start with. The change will have to come from Democrats who already live in the south. We Can't Fix It.

[ddeclue]

31. You are an idiot and a defeatist...

and you are wrong about the South.

Instead of standing and fighting for something you ran off to Oregon to hide.

Why stop there?

Canada is even more progressive than Oregon - why don't you just go with your defeatist instincts and move to Vancouver...

You can't make a change by declaring defeat and complaining and you don't know what is possible when you refuse to try.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[sandnsea]

32. I made a change HERE

I guess you missed that too. We didn't sit and whine about not getting help from campaigns or the bigger cities or even the state party. We just plugged away, bit by bit, and took the city back over. The library, the school board, the city council, our county commissioner. And now there are Obama signs on every block. I am hardly hiding. I just have no desire to live with the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet - who are NEVER going to change in my lifetime. Sorry. But I tell people if you want to live in Alabama - go there. Don't fuck up Oregon with your backwoods ideas. I've gotten a lot of Dem voters that way, really makes them think - so I guess your hellhole is good for something.

Cya.

[ClarkBayh 2008]

3. I'd really like to believe that... but

all the trends are questionable... and since the governor is a republican, any close race will still go to McCain as we all know...

I was down in FLA on election day.... unless Obama's ahead the week before.... it goes to McCain easily....

[Coexist]

5. who pissed in your Wheaties today??

[blondeatlast]

20. Care to dance (see post 19) nt

[ddeclue]

6. NO IT DOESN'T...

The trends are all on OUR side...

I live here and have been heavily involved in working campaigns down here since 2003 and we've won back 9 state house seats and 2 Congressional seats since 2006 and the state is trending Democrat as Northeasterners and Puerto Ricans continue to move here in droves.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[ddeclue]

7. Here's Alan Grayson's TV ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61dD4X8Doa0

He's the Dem candidate for Congressional District 8 to unseat Ric Keller and he's an example of how we're taking Florida back!

Help us do it!

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[blondeatlast]

19. "This parrot is dead, sir. It is a DECEASED parrot!" (I'm very happy to say!)nt

[ddeclue]

23. What the hell is this a quote from?

Sorry but your obscure reference is dead sir...

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[blondeatlast]

25. C/B 2008 has been tombstoned. The quote is from Monty Python, and I am a lady-person.

I'd love to help out, but I'm in Arizona and while Obama won't win here, we've got some critical local races that Dems need to concentrate on (plus we are farming out to CO, which I think WILL go blue, NV, and NM).


Good luck in your efforts; I'd LOVE to see FL go blue! :hi:

[ddeclue]

28. I lived in Phoenix in the Summer of 2002

You've got your hands full thanks for the moral support though..

Doug D.

[Hawaii Hiker]

13. Turnout needs to be higher in South Florida (specifically Miami/Dade)

From http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Kerry only won Miami-Dade county by a narrow margin, I would hope Obama can win Miami/Dade by a MUCH larger percentage.....Miami Dade result from 2004 below..

Miami-Dade County

Presidential

Popular Vote
John Kerry John Edwards Democratic 409,732 52.89%
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 361,095 46.61%
Ralph Nader Peter Camejo Reform 2,041 00.26%
Other (+) - - 1,858 00.24%

Shouldn't a Democrat be able to do better than 52-46 in Miami????

[ddeclue]

14. John Kerry wrote off Florida and invested poorly in Ohio instead.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL
Kerry Campaign Core Staffer,
Mills Ave Office
Orlando, FL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. You Did Good Work...Kerry Carried Orange County

He actually did better in Orange County than he did in the rest of the nation...If everybody voted like the residents of Orange Couty, Florida he would be president today...

But asking Kerry to perform better in Florida than he did in the rest of the nation is a bit much...


Kerry received 47.1% of the vote in FL and 48.3% of the vote in the U S A...

Unless Obama abandons the state his Florida percentage will fall within a point or two of the national average...

Book it!

[ddeclue]

29. Here's the deal..

1) Florida is shifting Dem and has shifted significantly since 2004.
2) We are better situated for our ground game this time than any time since the 1990's and Bill Clinton.
3) Obama is going to invest in FL with a good ground game. In fact they have been here for some time working already.
4) Absentee ballots are the key to winning and we've been pushing it hard across numerous campaigns for the last 2 years. ABR's are valid in Florida now until the 2010 cycle thanks to a change in the law which the Republicans pushed through thinking that we Dems wouldn't take advantage of it. This will be the big surprise to them. We've already stuck it to them several times with ABR's in special elections.
5) Based on the races I've worked in the past five years you can shift any race by 5 points if you work the ground and know what you are doing. Florida is IN play folks, make no mistake.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[flamingdem]

36. Please PM me

My family lives in that area and they want to work hard on this.

Can you send me information on any activities or links? Thanks!

[juajen]

46. Congratulations on your hard work. I agree. Fla. is in play. NT

[flamingdem]

38. kick

[L0oniX]

16. Pinellas county now has more registered Dems than repukes ....I have never seen that before.

http://www.votepinellas.com/

[ddeclue]

18. Exactly Thank you St. Petersberg...n/t

[TuxedoKat]

33. Can you post links to all the Congressional Races

that we have a good chance of winning so we can contribute directly to their campaigns online?

I will email you about phone-banking (I'm in NY), but I need to get some training re same.

[flamingdem]

34. ************ You Can Join the FLORIDA ACTION TEAM through Obama's website ******** link

Link:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/FloridaActionTeam

[flamingdem]

35. Florida for Obama for overall Florida organizing and Veterans Tour kicking off Saturday September 13

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/flhome

'Change We Need' Veterans Tour
by Kristen PsakiFriday, September 12, 2008 at 09:50 PM

The Florida ‘Change We Need’ Veterans Tour that will kick off on this Saturday, September 13th, and continue on Sunday, September 14, in Central and Northeast Florida with General Claudia Kennedy, Commander Sergeant Major Michele Jones, Sergeant Major John Estrada and Staff Sergeant and Iraq War Veteran Mike Wilson, the Republican from Florida who officially nominated Senator Obama to be our nation’s next Commander-in-Chief. Weekend events that include round-table discussions, community events and phone banks will focus on Obama’s belief that our country has a sacred trust with veterans that begins the moment a service member enlists. Obama will honor their service by making sure that we meet veterans’ and their families’ needs and concerns.

“Senator Obama is committed to taking care of our nation’s veterans, including support for a 21st Century Department of Veterans’ Affairs that provides the care and benefits our veterans deserve,” Florida Veterans Vote Director Major Jerry Holt said. “While we honor the heroism of Senator John McCain, he has consistently voted against adequately funding the VA, even going so far as to say recently that he wants to ration veterans’ healthcare to those with combat injuries. That’s unacceptable. In fact, even the Disabled American Veterans gave McCain a 20 percent rating compared to Obama’s 80 percent.”

'CHANGE WE NEED' VETERANS TOUR DETAILS

PARTICIPANTS

General Claudia Kennedy, a retired lieutenant general in the United States Army. She is the first female to reach the rank of three-star general in the U.S. Army. Kennedy’s awards include the Legion of Merit, the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, the Meritorious Medal, the Army Commendation Medal and the Army Staff Identification Badge.

Command Sergeant Major Michele Jones is the first female Command Sergeant Major of the U.S. Army Reserve. Throughout her military career, CSM Jones has dedicated herself to the issues of the enlisted soldier. She excelled at her position by travelling the United States and overseas visiting and listening to soldiers and their families. She represented their concerns and issues at all levels within the Army, Department of Defense and Congress.

Sergeant Major John L. Estrada was the 15th Sergeant Major of the United States Marine Corps, the highest enlisted position within the United States Marine Corp. He was the first and, to date, the only Latino to serve in the post. His personal awards include the Bronze Star, the Meritorious Service Medal with three gold stars, the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, the Joint Service Achievement Medal and the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal.

Staff Sergeant Michael Wilson served eight years as an Air Force medic and is a veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Wilson isa Melbourne resident and registered Republican who made history as the first Republican to cast the official nomination of a Democratic Presidential candidate when he spoke Thursday night at the Democratic National Convention to nominate Barack Obama.

RSVP to one of the Veterans Tour Stops now!

[flamingdem]

37. Kick. Florida... so many EVs and so little time

[flamingdem]

40. le kicke

[Kdillard]

39. kick

[MamaDem]

41. I am in Central FL and attended my first community meeting today...

and we had SO MANY more people show up than was expected - they just kept coming and coming. It was really incredible. Now, it wasn't hundreds, but when you start with 4 and end with 25-30 in someone's home standing-room only with all walks of life, it gives me hope. I am a life long Floridian and have been embarrassed by my state. I haven't wanted to get involved because it's felt like a losing battle for so long, but I echo the author of the original thread - the I-4 corridor is key and we have a huge momentum with new voters this year. The ground game is key here and we are trying to get as many early and absentee voters as possible. Any help we can get is appreciated. If I could take the next 50 days off from work and devote it to this campaign I would - it's that important in FL.

[damndude]

42. kick

[mbee]

44. I notice the mention of Acorn and I heard some guy named

Fund on NPR promoting his book about stealing the election and he attacked Acorn as as being crooked and linked them to Obama. The guy is trying to do a hit job on the Democrats so they'll be accused of having stole the elections if they win.

[Sugarcoated]

47. I knew it!!!

Dorky RW elitist John Fund was on Realtime with Bill Maher last Friday and he threw in a weird comment that had nothing to do with what they were saying so it caught my attention . . . he said that this election will be like the last two with lawsuits, lawyers and recounts, but what Republican says that? My spidey sense told me he was setting something up like what you're saying. Scum.

[barack the house]

45. If can make it folks go FL and work your heart out, people are reacheable if we get them excited.

[Agent William]

48. Kick

encouraging!