Based on 2004, i don't see how Obama can lose the popular vote

[JI7]

in 2004 the popular vote was less than 3 percentage points apart.

from wiki Bush Kerry

Popular vote 62,040,610 59,028,444
Percentage 50.7% 48.3%


in 2004, the under 30 age group was the ONLY age group that Kerry won. and that is the group that Obama is strongest in. but Obama is also winning among some older voters.

this is why it's really hard to believe the polls which claim McCain can be anything more than 3 percentage points ahead of Obama. i just can't believe it. even if Obama won just younger voters the numbers would be similar to the 2004 results.

but Obama will get a higher turnout among younger voters. many of these are first time voters and the polls are not taking them into account.

[MNDemNY]

1. Popular vote doesn't mean sh*t, unfortunately.

[JI7]

while electoral votes matter at the end, the popular vote does matter

in knowing which direction the election will go in. if any of the candidates are ahead by over 5 percent in popular vote it's most li kely they are leading in electoral also.

[MNDemNY]

5. Yup, that and $1.75 will get you a cup o' coffee!

[OneBlueSky]

2. Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 . . . John Kerry won the popular vote in 2004 . . .

and we still ended up with George W. Bush in the White House . . . twice . . .

"It's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes." . . .

[moose65]

7. Kerry didn't win the popular vote

In 2000, Gore won the popular vote by about 545,000. In 2004, Dumbass won the popular vote over Kerry by over 3 million.

[Honeycombe8]

3. That doesn't matter. nt

[doc03]

4. Read story on NBC by Chuck Todd is Palin's

Bubble about to Burst. He paints a depressing picture of the election. He says all hopes of the Democrats getting 60 seats in the Senate are gone and we will only get single digits in the House. I hope he is full of crap.

[nevergiveup]

6. If younger voters get out and vote in large numbers

we win. There has been increased voting among under 30 voters in the last couple of cycles but in November it must be exceptional. This is the big challenge for the Obama campaign. Can they actually get them to the polls in huge numbers.