Saturday Morning Data Dump – 9/13

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from national poll crosstabs (not the daily trackers). When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The Overall Popular Vote total from the State polls shows Obama trailing McCain by 0.4%, or 47.8% to 48.2% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 0.8% for Obama. The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 1.3% for Obama, and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 1.7% nationwide.

The reason these demographic percentages change? Simple … we are projecting an increase in voter turnout this year for young people, females, African-Americans and Latinos. The pollsters haven’t worked these demographic increases into their polling methodology yet, but they will (hopefully) when voter registration deadlines have passed next month.


GENDER CROSSTABS


The women’s vote continues to surge for Obama, yet it is also surging for McCain at a slightly faster pace. The male vote is currently opening a wider gap for McCain.











ETHNICITY CROSSTABS


As we suspected, there was an outlier in the Hispanic & Latino graph last week. The graph rebounds for Obama this week, returning to previous trends for this demographic group. Polling for Obama among African Americans is increasing, while polling it is dropping among white voters.














AGE CROSSTABS


Obama is winning every age group between 18 and 39, while McCain is winning every age group over 40. McCain overtakes Obama in the Age 40-44 demographic this week, while Obama is attempting to overtake McCain in the Age 55-59 demographic.






































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[Kukesa]

1. Kick! n/t

[phrigndumass]

2. (good morning!)

:hi:

[TexasLady]

3. Now THERE"S a trend we can handle!

uptick blue lines are awful perdee.

thanks for these!! :)

[phrigndumass]

4. They smell good, too! :)

Blueberry.

Good morning! :hi:

[Kind of Blue]

5. Thank you very much!

[phrigndumass]

6. yw :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Lunch kick

:kick:

[grantcart]

8. I raised this question before but now I have to say that your post has made it even more compelling

We know that there is under reporting.

This is not related to any conspiratorial theory that the pollsters are in leagues with their capaitalist masters, but rather a sober realization that when somebody like Obama comes by and changes the demographics and registers 10 million new voters then it is an inherent problem for the pollsters.

We note that there are discrepancies between national polls and the combined state polls in terms of pure popular vote.

However when USA today did a breakdown by age it showed Obama with huge leads up to age 65 and narrowly behind after that.

Your graphs show the same thing.

Using only the age values can we project what the national popular vote should be? And is there a good reason for us to believe that for some strange reason this would be the best cross tabs demographic to use to get a national popular vote total?


Oh and what the hell are you doing taking lunch already? lol

[phrigndumass]

9. Everything you said, amplified 100% ... terrific reply!

The blue widget shows the current popular vote percentages by age from the state polls ... 48.6% for Obama, and 47.4% for McCain. The difference is Obama +1.2% (it shows 1.3% because of rounding).



The projected vote totals from the age demographic would be:
Obama - 61,636,417 (+1,595,924)
McCain - 60,040,493
Barr/Nader/McKinney/Other - 5,044,090

I believe these demographic totals (crosstabs) are more revealing than the popular vote totals from either the state polls (toplines) or the national polls (toplines).

:hi:

[cliffordu]

10. Fucking stupid boomers. My generation. Stupid. Did we learn NOTHING???

[RagAss]

12. You(well not you but your contemporaries) learned how to hate pretty well !

[cliffordu]

13. I used to go into San Francisco to hang out when I was 16, in 1967.....

Summer of love and all that....


I really thought we were onto something then.....

I thought my generation was different.

I guess I'm dumber than I look.....

[RagAss]

14. Nah... don't doubt yourself... it's the fear they have that turns them into..

"Rejection Machines" .... hate for anything that doesn't contribute to their comfort level....and they wrap that selfishness in a flag and call it...... America !!

[grantcart]

16. According to the Palin table you are now qualified to be a CEO of a major

pharmaceutical company

Congratulations

[cliffordu]

21. ROFL..... For years I WAS the head of a pharmaceutical company.

Glad I didn't get busted.....



:rofl:

[Oak2004]

26. Remember: not all of us had a clue, even then

I'd say most were of the school of thought that ran something like "get me out of the draft... let me listen to the music... protest? Me? F U!"

[tekisui]

11. These data dumps are very interesting.

Good to see Hispanics fully on board.

Women alone could win this for Obama. We need a "Real Men Vote for Obama" campaign to get these men in line!

[phrigndumass]

15. The women's vote this year will be very important :)

Just a slight increase in female voters this year could very well tip it to Obama.

:toast: To Real Men voting for Obama!

[JeffR]

17. 5th rec!

:dem:

[phrigndumass]

18. (pssst ... Hi!)

(thanks!)

:hi:

[bleever]

19. K&R.

Thank you for your work, phrig.

[phrigndumass]

20. yw :)

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

22. Good Evening! :)

K&R for the data dump!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

24. It's morning now (after midnight)

... so :donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[Demeter]

23. Happy Weekend, P-Man!

I suppose that asking you for the confidence level you have in national poll numbers is really putting you on the spot...

For example: say the national Somebody says, Obama at X%, McCain at Y%. You could handicap it, if that is the phrase I want (having never bet on a horse in my life)...saying that the odds of this report being accurate within its MOE are 30%, or 90%, or whatever.

Of course, you may need to go to a few garage sales to find a crystal ball in good shape...

It's raining like Ike landed here in Michigan, and gas is up 50 cents in two days. We are nowhere NEAR Texas, so I'm seriously annoyed...

[phrigndumass]

25. Pre-Ike is dumping on us, too

We were told to expect between 4 and 8 inches of rain tonight and tomorrow. I live in a flood zone, and we spent some time sandbagging today. Weather Channel says Michiana is getting the same. Be safe!

My popular vote trend line seems to be trustworthy, so I would place more confidence on any poll showing that kind of range for the candidates. Any national poll ranging between a McCain lead of 0.4 points and an Obama lead of 1.7 points (see chart below) is currently on the nose. The Real Clear Politics average is showing McCain leading by 2.4 points, which means there are quite a few national polls off the mark at the moment.



Stay dry! :hi: