Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp

[my3boyz]

PLEASE someone in Florida tell me this is BS! Followed the link from Halperin's site...........

Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.

Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.

Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article808637.ece

[villager]

1. well these two paragraphs contradict each other...

....so which is it? :shrug:

[neverforget]

2. Did I miss something or have we had an election yet?

[DeeDeeNY]

12. Great picture!

[flamingdem]

3. The student vote is going to be very strong in Florida

And now the Jewish vote because they do NOT like Palin.

[my3boyz]

9. Really? I did not know that. My mom works for many wealthy

Jewish people in TN. Anyway, she said the other day one of the older ladies told my mom to look (and she showed her her Obama button). She said, "I'm voting for OBAMA!" THen she said her friends were too. She was leaving to go to play bridge with her friends and she was wearing her Obama button. :) She said her entire family was voting for Obama too. I hope Obama is able to get a lot of the Jewish vote.

[CitizenLeft]

18. my 3 bosses are Jewish...

...and at least 2 of them are strongly for Obama. The 3rd, I haven't overheard his opinion, but I wouldn't be surprised if he at least leaned that way.

[GoesTo11]

33. Jews know an anti-semite when they see one.

Palin is definitely one.

[DemzRock]

4. I wrote off Florida forever myself. Maybe if a Democratic majority in Congress eventually...

passes stronger national legislation guaranteeing the vote gets counted more accurately, but they don't seem to want to.

[darius15]

5. No, he should put more resources in FL

he and Bill Clinton have a joint appearance there, and Biden will play well among seniors.

He should move resources out of Georgia into Florida.

[Danger Mouse]

6. I doubt it. Lot of Jewish folk in FL, expats from NY. They don't like Palin. At all.

Them, and the the student population, will help big time.

[Monty__]

7. If we're taking polls and election results at face value

The only explanation I have is the growth of the SW Coast which is where a lot of more conservative Midwesterners retire or at least live for part of the year.

I'm still shocked because the younger generation of Cuban-Americans in SE Florida, Miami especially, are not blindly following the Republicans like many of their parents did (they're not blaming the Democrats for the Bay of Pigs basically).

[IndianaJones]

8. don't need any southern states. nt.

[brentspeak]

11. And you base that on what?

[my3boyz]

16. We need EVERY SINGLE state we can get! Gore and Kerry

lost (well Gore did not actually lose but you know how that is)by very small margins. Kerry only needed Ohio and Gore a few hundred votes in Florida. It can be that close. So we need every single state we can get (even if it only has 4 electoral votes).

[gratefultobelib]

10. The debates--they will help tremendously.

[Tutonic]

14. Only if Obama can keep the responses short. Joe Sixpack doesn't

think too highly of professorial responses.

[my3boyz]

23. I hope so. Obama needs to make sure he takes off a day or two prior

to the debates so that he is not tired. Obama did pretty good in many of his debates with Hillary. He was off his game at the ABC attack debate. I think he was tired. He had events earlier that day. Plus they just tried to knock him down and it threw him off balance. This time he needs to cancel all events prior to the debate and focus on that. He has to show the American people that he is ready to be president and that he can look and be presidential when standing next to John McCain. We know he is the best man for the job but the rest of the people need to see that.

[ClassWarrior]

13. Ignore the Corporate Media. It could be true. It could be false. But how can we know?

So quit fretting and volunteer for the campaign. That's all we can do.

NGU.

[skipos]

15. Look here:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php

[KathieG]

17. Well...I know my county (Marion) is hopelessly red, not sure about the rest of Florida

[darius15]

19. Whoever wins the I-4 corridor wins Florida

Northern Florida is like the Deep South, Southern Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and West Palm Beach counties) are Democratic, and those two areas cancel each other out.

Central Florida (where the Interstate-4 highway runs through) is the most important area. It's full of working class whites. That's why Hillary would win FL in a minute, why Obama is barely behind. Clinton won in 96, and he did it by winning I-4.

[Monty__]

22. Most of Florida is composed of red counties

The traditionally blue counties are Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Leon, Gadsden, Jefferson, Alachua and Volusia. Good news, Dade, Broward and Palm Beach have over 5 million people. The places Democrats need to make inroads are in the I-4 corridor. Orange, Pinellas and Hillsborough (Orlando, Tampa and St. Pete) are purple counties and fast growing areas. These need to be blue.

[usregimechange]

20. They better have a big lead to compeat with all those boots on the ground

[my3boyz]

26. I heard the Republicans have a good ground game in Florida.

Someone posted a while back that that was why McCain had not spent any money there. They said he was relying on the Republican base there and that they had the strongest game ground there than in any other state. Not sure if that is true. However, I'm glad Obama is investing money in the ground game. I think that would have helped Kerry in 04.

[saltpoint]

21. I believe Florida is very much in contention and that Obama/Biden has

a good chance of carrying it.

Close Florida elections are often decided in the "Route 4 Corridor" between the Tampa Bay /St. Petersburg area and say, Orlando, and you can throw in several satellite regions to that area for good measure.

Kerry enjoyed considerable support in Florida in 2004 but so did Dubya. My guess is that it is going to be close this time too, perhaps not as close as year 2000, and in some scenarios, this time favors the Democrats.

The president's son is no longer the governor. I don't care much for Charlie Crist, but he's not as abominably corrupt as Jeb.

Miami-Dade is not your grandfather's Miami-Dade. I think there will be an even higher level of support for the Democratic ticket there this time and that we have a chance to carry the state.

Ain't saying it's going to be a breeze, only that the We Are Doomed school of thought doesn't resonate with me. I think Florida's in play and I think we have a decent shot at it.

[flamingdem]

25. Very much so. Even Cuban Americans are sick of the republicans

and let's hope they vote for Joe Garcia instead of that Mario Diaz-Balart cretin.

[Orlandodem]

24. Run adds about McCain's Social Security plans in South Florida!

Run a whisper campaign about Palin's extremism. Talk up Ed Koch. Hell, send Ed Koch to SoFla!

This isn't rocket science.

I posted a history lesson about Florida politics a while back. To summarize: Lawton Chiles ran negative telephone calls about Jeb Bush not being a friend to seniors in the final weekend of the 1994 election. Chiles won in a very close election, but those calls put him over the top. Obama must not be afraid to run negative ads targeting seniors.

[grantcart]

27. Florida is looking good but it is still going to be close

This is from Plouffe - remember that we lost Florida by a small margin before. Polls are under reporting both the youth and AA vote:

Much of the briefing covered specifics on the focus on turnout by the Obama campaign and their massive effort to "adjust the electorate" to their benefit. He cited several examples, including Florida where he claimed that roughly 600,000 African Americans that were registered but did not vote in 2004 , with more than half of that group coming from African Americans under 40 years of age. "If we just execute on turnout" in Florida, he said, "we're going to be bumping up on our win number." They also believe they can keep states like Virginia and North Carolina competitive if they "blow the doors off turnout."


cited here

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/137

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6820061


(see you can't just read only phrigndumass lol :hi:)

[Obamarulz11]

28. My aunt who lives in Pensacola...traditionally blood area

Has recieved feedback from many people indicating that "they are bitter from 2000 and this year is the chance to get the election back"

[saltpoint]

32. Also I would not sell Joe Biden short in Florida, especially among older

voters.

Biden can be a reassuring catalyst for those voters who feel they still need persuasion on matters such as geriatric health care and social protections.

I don't think Sarah Palin can inspire the level of confidence and reassurance Biden can, and in many retirement villages in Florida, you want to send someone like Biden into that condominium zone.

I say Biden alone is worth upwards of 5% in Florida.

[Kdillard]

29. I think Florida may surprise people but I am not an expert.

[1corona4u]

30. It's bullshit. It really is.

[rhombus]

31. Florida will be tough, but we can still win it

The key is campaigning hard in Florida. Time is also working against Obama in a state where he is still unfamiliar to quite a huge segment of the population.

[rockymountaindem]

34. Florida was always a pipe dream

Unfortunately, it might as well be as red as Texas because unless we're going to win it by 5%.... it would be the year 2000 all over again. And this time, we have even less chance on the Supreme Court.