I believe Obama's low in the electoral college will be 268.

[Drunken Irishman]

That means he carries all of Kerry's states + Iowa & Colorado. It won't be enough, but I do not see him dipping below this. That means he'd lose the electoral college 270-268 if he didn't grab one more state. However, I find that highly unlikely. Especially with New Mexico most likely going blue.

So states he can win that will give him the election:

New Mexico (5 electoral votes, wins with 273).
Nevada (5 electoral votes, wins with 273).
Ohio (20 electoral votes, wins with 288).
Virginia (13 electoral votes, wins with 281).
North Carolina (15 electoral votes, wins with 283).
Florida (27 electoral votes, wins with 295).

Of course, if Obama were to win them all, he'd win this in a blowout, with 353 electoral votes.

But I do believe the minimum electoral votes Obama will win in November will be 268. Now it's up to you to see how likely it is he picks off another McCain state. If I had to guess, if this is not a blowout, Obama wins all of Kerry's states + Iowa and Colorado along with New Mexico.

[Danger Mouse]

1. Give Obama New Mexico. Richardson + Latino population makes a win for Obama...

almost a lock.

[terrya]

2. I agree with your analysis - Iowa and Colorado, plus New Mexico. I'd add Nevada to that list.

[DarthDem]

3. Good Analysis

But NM is already in the bag. Don't get down over one ridiculous ScottyRazz result. I think that right now, even at the peak of McClown's bounce (fading now in the dailies, but still extant in the state polls until we get some new ones next week), Obama's floor is at 273. And a win. :D

[Triana]

4. Glad you all are visiting the site:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep13.html


Even if you don't acknowledge it! ;)

[terrya]

5. A few days ago, I added it to my favorite page.

:-)

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Ha! I didn't even realize today's numbers.

But it's about right. Obama won't lose this election by more than 2 electoral votes.

I see three scenarios:

Obama wins in a blowout.
Obama wins a tight race.
McCain wins a tight race.

I do not see McCain blowing Obama out.

[grantcart]

6. Indiana is now in play with the latest poll showing McCain +2

But your right Obama has a low floor and McCain has a low ceiling.


The Palin balloon will burst and McCain will end up at 43-44% - a blow out.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Really? I didn't see that poll!

Who did it? Awesome.

[Beregond2]

9. I have to laugh whenI look at these electoral college maps.

Oregon weak Dem and Washington barely Dem? LOL! If they are that off everywhere, it will be a blow-out for Obama.

[moose65]

10. I know!

There is no way that Washington and Oregon are "weak" by any stretch of the imagination. I was doing some searches this morning on several Secretary of State web sites. Dems outnumber Reps by a substantial margin in New Mexico. Why has that state been so close in recent elections? There is a huge, huge Hispanic population in NM, not to mention a very large Native American group. With Richardson's popularity plus the Udall Senate race, I think NM looks good for our side. Nevada, too, is a mystery to me. Nevada basically has two population centers: Las Vegas (Clark County) and Reno/Tahoe/Carson City. About 60% of the state's entire population lives in Clark County, and Dems again comprise the majority. Nevada is incredibly fast-growing, and a lot of the new population comes from California, meaning that they lean Democratic. If Obama carries all of Kerry's states, plus Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, he wins without Ohio or Florida.