darius15
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:04 PM
Original message |
My State by State Election Projection update:McCain wins popular vote, Obama wins election |
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Edited on Sat Sep-13-08 04:16 PM by darius15
Keep in mind, folks, this is my projection of what would happen if the election was held today.
National M+2 Washington O+6 Oregon O+6 California O+13 Alaska M+22 Hawaii O+22 Idaho M+30 Nevada M+1 Utah M+35 Arizona M+9 Montana M+7 Wyoming M+25 Colorado O+1 New Mexico O+3 North Dakota M+9 South Dakota M+8 Nebraska M+19 Kansas M+18 Oklahoma M+32 Texas M+11 Minnesota O+7 Iowa O+8 Missouri M+6 Arkansas M+14 Louisiana M+16 Wisconsin O+6 Illinois O+16 Michigan O+2 Florida M+4 Mississipi M+15 Alabama M+20 Georgia M+14 South Carolina M+10 North Carolina M+9 Tennessee M+19 Kentucky M+18 West Virginia M+10 Virginia M+2 Indiana M+6 Ohio M+1 Pennsylvania O+4 Maryland O+14 Delaware O+9 New Jersey O+7 New York O+16 Connecticut O+18 Massachusetts O+14 Rhode Island O+22 Vermont O+26 New Hampshire O+3 Maine O+14 DC O+66
Toss Up States (within 3 percent): NV, CO, NM, MI, VA, OH, NH
Overall EV (with toss ups): Obama 238, McCain 227 Overall EV (no toss ups): Obama 273, McCain 265
And this is when McCain still has a bit of his convention bounce! Ha!
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Joe Chi Minh
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:15 PM
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1. McCain wins popular vote? In your dreams. |
darius15
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:15 PM
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2. If the election were held today, yes |
truedelphi
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:19 PM
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3. What is the rationale for your believing that McCain has the popular vote? |
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The oligarchy's selection of political polls, most of which do not even examine the thoughts of cell phone users, and thus leave out those under the age of thirty?
Or what?
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darius15
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:23 PM
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5. Polls are pretty much all the data we have to use. |
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Edited on Sat Sep-13-08 04:23 PM by darius15
Correct or incorrect, they show McCain ahead in popular vote because of a Convention\Palin bounce.
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Joe Chi Minh
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Sun Sep-14-08 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
10. That is irrational in the extreme. One of the two alternatives that you posit - more |
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Edited on Sun Sep-14-08 10:29 AM by KCabotDullesMarxIII
than a little plausible, to put it mildly - is that the polls are incorrect.
Yet, as with your first postulation, i.e. that they are correct, you gratuitously conjecture a "Convention/Palin bounce". If they show a "Convention/Palin bounce", even if incorrect, what value does that impute to the poll? Precisely, zero. Unless you're a mathematician and can countenance zero minus amounts.
"...Pretty much all the data we have". Well, I have extremely exiguous data on rocket science, but I wouldn't ascribe to much worth to them. They're kind of fuzzy.
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adapa
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Sat Sep-13-08 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
7. What is the statistical evidence behind this idea? I've often thought it was relevant |
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but would love to see some evidence to the help prove the theory. I am hopeful this isn't a urban myth.
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Joe Chi Minh
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Sun Sep-14-08 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
11. Don't worry. I'm sure others have done so. But why this obsession with statistics? |
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Edited on Sun Sep-14-08 10:38 AM by KCabotDullesMarxIII
Are you not savvy enough to be able to impute compelling truth to overwhelming anecdotal evidence? You don't know the UK exists where maps say it does. But let it rest. Trust the cartographers.
Even though they're experts, and consequently might well not know their backside from their elbow in other matters. Well, you don't really have to accept their authority; just accept the anecdotal advice you hear. It will be more than adequate.
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adapa
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Sun Sep-14-08 06:57 PM
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12. my background is in science & accounting- proof is useful in arguing a case |
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everyone 'knew' a pot of water boiled faster with the lid on oddly- when someone actually checked the premise,it boiled just as fast without the lid.
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Joe Chi Minh
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Mon Sep-15-08 03:30 PM
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13. There are many areas where doubting anecdotal evidence is unambiguously foolish pedantry. |
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Edited on Mon Sep-15-08 03:31 PM by KCabotDullesMarxIII
The scientific method is a laughable gew-gaw in many issues of greater moment than a pot of boiling water.
A priori, inductive reasoning, reasoning from first principles, enabled Blackjack Kennedy to come out well on top when Wall Street first crashed, because it just seemed to him that there was something grievously wrong with the stockmarket, when the man who was cleaning his shoes was telling him which stocks to buy.
He didn't need a calculator, or reams of hard data; it was all too obvious to his common sense. However, we know that common sense is not so common, after all; that it is a great leveller, because it is not a notably characteristic gift of the educated. Which after all, is why we lurch from war to war, slump to slump, and continue to poison our world, even to today's diminishing colonies of the bumble bee. In Korea, they are already having to pollinate their crops by hand.
Meanwhile your journeyman scientist believes that he and his colleagues are the true Masters of the Universe - not the financial traders! - and tell us as much, at every opportunity. As for the religious thinkers, they're just fantasists to their minds. While the reality is that they are the real Dominionists, precipitating a planetary cataclysm in their quest for the materialists' sundry Holy Grails - and they don't even know it.
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adapa
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Mon Sep-15-08 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. Perhaps the common sense approach dictates the majority of Cell |
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...phone owners are younger however that was not the case in my limited sampling. I had a number of people respond to an ad for an apt approx. equal number of young & old, almost all of them asked to be contacted on their cell.
I am hopeful the common sense is true in this case-
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Cosmic Charlie
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:45 PM
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21. darry's motives are obvious here |
bluestateguy
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:22 PM
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4. Rutherford B. Hayes lost the popular vote by %3.00 in 1876 and still won |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Sat Sep-13-08 04:24 PM
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6. Only At The Cost Of The Republicans Abandoning The Rights Of The Freedmen |
ramapo
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Sat Sep-13-08 06:41 PM
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8. McCain will win red states with huge margins |
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There are millions of voters who will not vote for a black man. Pure and simple, especially a Democratic black man.
Your analysis is a pretty close to worst case scenario. There are a couple of squeakers in there for Obama and I'd feel better if he had bigger lead in Michigan and Colorado. I hope and believe Obama has no where to go but up from this point on but I cannot discount the power of the Republican slime machine.
It'll be interesting to see republican reaction if your scenario comes true. How much you want to bet they trash the electoral college, say Obama is illegitimate, etc., conveniently forgetting what they preached in 2000.
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truedelphi
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Sat Sep-13-08 10:52 PM
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9. My big fear is that they will even involve us in WWIII if it |
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Keeps their people in office.
Right now, Russia is giving the USA twenty one days to get its naval fleet out of the area around Georgia. And Russia is sending some of its navy to this hemispherre, perhaps to bolster Venzuela.
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leftynyc
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Mon Sep-15-08 03:33 PM
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14. Now THAT's what I call Karma (n/t) |
goodgd_yall
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
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I'm sure we'd be hearing the "we won the popular vote" a lot more than we ever heard it after Bush won though.
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goodgd_yall
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:15 PM
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16. If I give up on FL and OH |
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the three states I see that will be most critical are NM, CO, and VA. Those are the battleground states I see Obama having the best chance of winning.
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x-g.o.p.er
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:21 PM
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With all due respect, I don't see this trend of McCain ahead in the national polls. I just don't. Palin as a rock star will fade and people will focus on McCain and Obama.
I just don't see McCain winning that.
If McCain does maintain, and God forbid, increase the popular vote, I see close states tipping his way.
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ContinentalOp
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:21 PM
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19. That doesn't really make sense, |
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since by and large, the blue states contain heavily populated cities whose voters are underrepresented in the electoral college and the red states are less populous areas where the votes carry more weight.
In fact, is that even possible? Can you show a scenario where McCain could win the popular vote and lose the election? I don't believe it could ever happen.
Why don't you run some actual numbers using polling percentages, and voter turnout from the last election?
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darius15
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Mon Sep-15-08 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
20. I do use polling percentages to come up with these numbers |
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I include all except Zogby, because they really are shit. The latest poll is the one I give the highest weight. So, if a New York poll showed McCain up 5, but the previous 3-4 showed Obama up by 10, I'd say that New York was Obama+4. Ofcourse, nothing that drastic has happened in a poll...yet.
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