WARNING for the easily discouraged or nervous...

[regnaD kciN]

You may want to avoid FiveThirtyEight.com for a few days.

Explanations: Nate just got through crunching the numbers with a whole bunch more state polls that came out last week. In other words, these reflect McCain's convention bounce and are likely the high-water mark of his campaign, but, of course, Nate has to include them just as he would with any other recent polls (like the ones that came out after the Democratic convention bounce...except, due to the conventions being so close together, there were no state polls that came out after the Democratic convention bounce.

In any event, his simulations give the result one could expect: if the election were held the week after the G.O.P. convention, the result would not be good for our side. (Fortunately for us, of course, the election isn't being held the week after the G.O.P. convention.)

But, for those of you who get easily depressed or prone to "the sky is falling!" moods, it probably would be the wisest to stay away from that place (along with RCP and Electoral-Vote.com) for a week or maybe two, until things have stabilized a bit. Morale is important in a presidential campaign, and premature doomsaying based on skewed-by-convention-bounce polling numbers can only hurt Obama.

(Note: I'm not saying everyone should avoid those sites, but if you're prone to panicking or even worrying too much, just wait a bit and realize that the numbers game will be better for us then.)

[Narkos]

1. I know, it's depressing. I used to love going there,

just loving all those pie graphs and charts showing how we were gonna kick ass! On the other hand, it's good not to be delusional, and I'm glad that those guys are so brutally honest and scientific about the whole thing.

[rzemanfl]

2. Polls that defy common sense should not be trusted. If I walked

out my door tomorrow morning here in Florida and everything was covered in white, I would NOT assume it snowed overnight. There is a psyop going on to demoralize us to the point where they can swing the election through fraud. All they have to do is have a few operatives putting down the responses of a right wing fundy nutcase as being those of a "Hillary Democrat" or fudging the honest responses of the people they contact to swing the poll results, since each respondent represents hundreds, if not thousands, of people. Honesty has nothing to do with it-these are Republicans we are up against. We are being played.

[samuraiguppy]

3. the sky is falling the sky is falling

no just kidding--we are gonna win this. Polls are crap

[uponit7771]

4. We'll respond positively, I've seen this before...a team used to being ahead ALL the time and the...

...second we're thrown for a loop the sky is falling.

Small adjustments mean big results while keeping the fundamentals of strengths the same

[emilyg]

5. Thanks to your post

my first visit there. Good site.

[holiday]

6. thanks for the heads up

one of the reasons bush won last election was because of Ohio and Kenneth Blackwell... Well this time we have DEMS, Ohio went blue in 2006!

[Imagevision]

7. Come visit with us again after the Obama/McCain debates...

[Peacetrain]

8. I am not a sky is falling type..but still it is good to know what is ahead

thank you for the early warning..this way I will not get pulled into things. I can sometimes be an easily distracted person :hi:

[BlackmanX]

9. You see cause for depression I see only opportunity

It's the height of the mcsame/failin bounce and the best they can do is go up 2% in a few swing states. This tells me that mccain is fundamentally weaker than the repubs would have us believe. The only place where palin has helped mcshit is in the deepsouth in places where mcshit already had an advantage. It was their week last week but now the scrutiny comes and she won't hold up. The media would have us all believe that Obama is off message but He's only 1 speech away from getting the spotlight back. Never forget that. This is STILL Obama's election and he will get the lead back. Fuck mcsame/failin

[regnaD kciN]

10. I guess my caution was based on the panic here last weekend...

I don't think another outpouring of gloom'n'doom would be all that helpful with six or so weeks to go in a quite winnable election (especially so since we're seeing the beginnings of a "McCain is a liar" meme stirring in the national media). I just would advise those easily made nervous (or, as someone pointed out earlier, afflicted with PTSD after the last couple of presidential thefts elections) to not worry about the statistical sites (based on data from mid-bounce polls) and work with the same energy and enthusiasm they had just after Obama's Invesco speech.

[Phx_Dem]

11. Too late, I've already been there.

The most depressing thing is that Nate is so honest and fair. I'm not a big worrier by nature. I KNOW. I AM ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY CONFIDENT that Obama knows what he's doing. I know he's going to win -- I feel in my gut like I never have for any other election. But I'm nervous right now. And by "right now" I mean tonight. Tomorrow, I'll be fine again.

In the last two weeks I have had 2 or 3 nervous days. I wake up in the morning and realize everything is fine an I'm just letting the up and down rollercoaster bullshit get to me. I am absolutely confident that Obama will win this election come hell or high water.

There's no place like home. There's no place like home. There's no place like home.

Okay. Feeling better already. My advise to everyone is to get off the Internet for at least a day every couple of days and volunteer for the Obama campaing, or listen to music, walk your dog and relax. It does wonder for your psyche.

[BluegrassDem]

12. I'm with you...this election might be the death of me

This stuff shouldn't be affecting my mood, but it does. Some days I'm fine, others I'm not. I've found not watching the pundits on cable helps a lot. Sometimes I wish I didn't care so much about politics!

[Phx_Dem]

19. We may need to start a support group for election junkies. n/t

[Stop Cornyn]

13. We ignore those projections at our peril. We are being "out lied," and if we cannot rebut those lies

we'll lose.

[eshfemme]

14. Yeah, I have to admit that it was depressing to actually see that pie graph

be taken over by the red. I'm hoping to see it resume back to Obama's lead in a week or two too.

[Phoonzang]

15. Too late....I went there during my daily sweep of political blogs.

The sky is indeed falling. It will crush us whether we choose to look up or not.

[Frumious B]

16. It's hard to keep my stat junkie self away from those places.

Rationally speaking, I know that you are right.

[Agent William]

17. Thanks for the heads up...

I panic way to easily..

[davidpdx]

18. Give it a week and things will shift

McCain's convention bounce will end, Palin will cause larger headaches for the GOP ticket and the polls will swing the other direction.