Just to clarify - if it's a 269-269 EV tie, do we win?

[mvd]

I've seen it both ways at DU. Some say we win because we have the House, but someone else said we lose because it's one vote per state.

[featherman]

1. Yes.. in the House

[Eric J in MN]

2. Probably. There was analysis of this at Daily Kos. (I don't have a link.) NT

NT

[BlooInBloo]

3. jfgi.

[mvd]

8. There's not such a simple answer from Google

That's why a DU discussion makes sense.

[d_b]

4. I read it would be President Pelosi

[bluestateguy]

5. It goes to the House...which does not give me much comfort

Quite a few of those Blue Dog Democrat pussies likely represent districts that will vote for McCain, and they will be bludgeoned into voting for him on the House roll call.

[Hamlette]

7. say what you will about Blue Dog Democrats, they do vote party lines on leadership

you'd think they'd do the same for president

[Statistical]

13. I am not sure they will in this case.

I am not sure they will in this case.

Remember it is 1 vote per state (not per district). The congressional delegation for that state decides the 1 vote for that state.

So let's take a hypothetical purple state.
The state has 7 congressmen (5 dems & 4 rep)
Now let's say this state votes McCain.

Will ALL 5 dems vote against "the will of the people"?
Will they risk losing in re-election in 2 years?
Can you imagine the campaign ads "Congressmen xyz believes special interest and not will of people should elect the president"?
Can anyone here say with 100% certainty that all the dems will go along and risk almost certain loss of their own seat in 2 years?
Imagine the chaos, and emotion as people call into Congressmen "urging" them to do right thing for the people of the state.

Imagine the scenario is reversed. How pissed would you be if your state voted for Obama but the Rep broke will of the people and handed the state to McCain. Unrest? Threats? Riots? At a minimum I would say we can agree that we would do EVERYTHING it takes to boot the "traitors out in 2010". Right?

In that hypothetical scenario above if even 1 dem breaks ranks (fear, pressure, split district, conservative democrat, etc) then the state's vote would go read (5 vs 4).

The most likely scenario for a tie I imagined, worked out to be 28 vs 22 states (McCain vs Obama). Now 21 vs 19 of those states are "locked up" (i.e likely to vote one party and the congressional delegation majority is for same party). That leaves 7 possibles for McCain and 3 for Obama. Obama would need his 3 (rep vote Dem because of will of people) plus 3 of 7 of McCains states to break "will of people" and go blue.

Of course each set of state combinations will result in their own sets of locked and flipable states.

Another factor would be who has the pop vote. If Obama has pop vote I see it more likely that Congressmen would break ranks?

So simply put there is no easy answer. If I were a betting man I would put it at 60%/40% or 65%/35% that Obama gets it in a tie but it is far from a sure thing.

[CarbonDate]

19. Depends on who they fear more:

Their constituents, or House Democratic leadership?

Their constituents, or their local Democratic leadership?

Their constituents, or their campaign contributors?

Moreover, just because their state as a whole went to the other party doesn't mean that their district will.

I consider this entire scenario highly unlikely. If it's a tie, we win. We'll leave that .001% chance that it might go otherwise alone.

[MattP]

6. Even though I don't believe in revenge I would enjoy it because 2000 hurt so much.

Just to hear the right wing bitch and moan and cry about how it is so unfair I don't know about any of you guys but I would become a Hannity or Rush listener for a couple of hours just to enjoy the complaining for a little bit of guilty pleasure.

[quakerboy]

9. Here's your

Constitution. I enjoyed reading it. I'm amazed I never had to for any class I ever took.

http://www.usconstitution.net/const.txt

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

28. I'm a political science professor and tomorrow for class, we are analyzing the constitution

and applying it to current events in light of the criminal Bush administration. ;)

[MidwestTransplant]

10. Personally I don't see it happening. It would mean we win CO but lose NH.

[DCBob]

20. Here is the most likely tie scenario:

I have identified 4 other plausible tie possibilities. You can see them here:

http://zbob.net/yeswecan/USAVote.html

Just go to the scenario dropdown and select "Tie scenario 1-5".

[CK_John]

11. Another variable is it will bbe the new Congress who do the voting.

The House will be 1 vote per state, (tie votes are not counted) for president. The Senate will elect the VP.

[Hawaii Hiker]

12. Here you go

scroll about halfway down...

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep11.html

[DarthDem]

14. Controlled By The 12th Amendment

Nate Silver over at 538.com explains it really well here - - scroll down just a bit for the full explanation. Short version: yes, the Democrats in the House almost certainly prevail and select Obama in a 269-269 tie.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/12th%20amendment

[AllentownJake]

15. Yes

Unless we have chickenshits in the house.

[samuraiguppy]

16. hopefully we won't

have to deal with this. I predict that we will cleanly win the ec with more than 270.

[knixphan]

17. The candidates should settle it by shooting free throws.

[TexasObserver]

18. Yes, in all likelihood, we win in the House.

As you note, however, it is by state, not by simple majority of House membership.

It's far from certain, however. The election where Henry Clay made a good run for president and the one which selected Rutherford Hayes were both tossed into the House, if memory serves me correctly, which it doesn't always, so I'll issue that caveat.

[NoPasaran]

24. You're correct about One State One Vote

But the last election to be decided in the House was 1824, when John Quincy Adams was selected over Andrew Jackson who had led the popular vote.

The 1876 election was decided by a special Electoral Commission composed of five members each from the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. The Commission "examined" disputed electors.

[TexasObserver]

26. the 1824 election was the one involving Henry Clay

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. That's When The Republicants Abandoned The Freedman

The Republicans agreed to remove federal troops from the South who were protecting the newly freeed slaves' rights if the Democrats agreed to allow Hayes to be president in the disputed election...

[No Elephants]

21. Articel II. Section 1 of the COTUS, as amended, covers it, but---

The President of the Senate counts the votes of the Electors. In the event of a tie, the House votes. But, the language about the House vote is confusing, IMO. It says 'the representation from each state having one vote." For whatever it's worth, about.com says one vote per state, but what a way to phrase it!

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/electiontie.htm Wiki has an article on it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

This is the text from the COTUS.

Article 11, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States, as amended, specifies how the President is chosen.


The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted.

The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President.

But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President.

The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office, the Same shall devolve on the Vice President, and the Congress may by Law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, Resignation or Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed, or a President shall be elected.

The President shall, at stated Times, receive for his Services, a Compensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished during the Period for which he shall have been elected, and he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them.

Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:--"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. We Win

Because every state delegation represented in the House gets one vote and there are more Democratic delegations...


The only problem I see in a E C vote tie is if McSame won the pop vote...That would at least give him "arguing points"...

Before somebody brings up 00 the battle was over who won Electoral College Votes...For instance if Gore lost the pop vote he would have lost good "arguing points"

[No Elephants]

25. One vote per state. All the Reps from a state must agree on one candidate. OY!

[agentS]

23. Tie goes to the runner

just in baseball! /snark

[karynnj]

29. We likely win

It is one vote per state in the house, wheer we NOW have the majority in 27 states, they have 20, and 3 are tied. The word likely is there as it will be done in the new Congress and counts can change.