Did McCain do Obama a big favor by quashing the Bradley Effect?

[EffieBlack]

The Bradley Effect (also known as the Wilder Effect) is the phenomenon in which white voters tell pollsters they are going to vote for black candidate but then vote for their white opponent. The result is that the black candidate does worse and the white candidate does better than the polls indicate they would. The Bradley effect is becoming less and less relevant, partly because voters are becoming more enlightened and partly because polling is becoming more sophisticated and corrects for this possibility. But there has still been a concern in this campaign that the Bradley Effect could come into play and shrink Obama's numbers below what they appear to be.

But immediately after McCain selected Palin, we saw a shift as some white voters - mostly women - switched from Obama to McCain. I'm actually encouraged by that for this reason: I think many of the white women who jumped to McCain weren't going to vote for Obama anyway, whether they claimed they planned to or not. Some may have been reluctant to tell a pollster that, but some others might not have realized it themselves and would only have made the jump when actually confronted with the choice in the voting booth. ,

While they certainly don't need any excuse in the privacy of the polling booth to vote against Obama, the Palin selection gave them a "non-racist" choice and a plausible excuse to tell pollsters they planned to vote for someone else. ("I'm voting FOR a woman, not AGAINST a black person")

So, instead of waiting until Election Day - when it would be too late - to vote differently than they had previously indicated, these voters tipped their hands.

In so doing, they may have done the Obama campaign a big favor. McCain can no longer depend upon an under-the-radar element that has been the ace-in-the-hole for white candidates for decades. By picking Palin, McCain may have smoked out the people who make the Bradley Effect work against black candidates and given an enormous gift to Barack Obama by making the polls that the Obama campaign uses to determine strategy much more accurate.

Discuss

[mrreowwr_kittty]

1. That makes a lot of sense

As disheartening as these polls are to me, they do show that the undecided vote percentage is very narrow at this point. I say assume all of those dumbasses (I mean, really, how can anyone be undecided between McBush and Obama at this point??) will break for McCain and stop wasting time kissing thier butts. Forget the polls and focus all efforts from now to election day on voter registration and energizing the Democratic base. We already have 11 million more voters than the Repugs. Make that number 15 million and it's ours.

[TNMOM]

2. I agree, the election of Palin

diluted the Wilder effect. With her on the ticket, white voters and women voters feel less guilt about getting in the way of history-making. They can pull the lever for the Republican ticket and feel like they are making history in their own way.

But they picked the wrong VP nominee. I actually know a couple of southerners (both lifelong Democrats) who had planned on voting for McCain because they thought he was a "maverick" with experience that Obama lacked. But after the Palin selection, they say they're staying home. They can't stand Palin's smart-assed ignorance.

[flamingdem]

5. In the end the Palin choice will be self-cancelling

the more people learn about her the less likely they want her finger so close to the Nuke button, etc.

[BlooInBloo]

3. It doesn't exist. White folks tell me so.

[knowledgeispwr]

4. I think you may have something there

Many of the excuses people have for not voting for Obama (he's a Muslim, he's inexperienced, and my favorite "there is just something about him I can't put my finger on") are just thinly-veiled excuses for their racism.

I believe, as you said, that may of the people who are supporting Mccain because of Palin were never going to vote for Obama in the first place. Palin is just the latest convenient excuse to avoid owning-up to their racism.

[samuraiguppy]

6. Obama ran against a

white woman in the primary. Did we see a Bradley Effect then?

But maybe the caucus system would inhibit the Bradley Effect......thoughts?

[EffieBlack]

11. i don't think the Bradley Effect has been a factor in primaries

[Nia Zuri]

7. Excellent point.

We probably now have a more accurate picture of where things stand. Palin has definitely given the closet racists cover.

[treestar]

8. There could also be the fear of seeming sexist

And answering that way, so as to make a similar effect. Right wingers can't want a woman that close to the top - their theories about how women are genetically nurturing and just don't have it in them to be tough.

[EffieBlack]

9. So, while the Bradley Effect driven by sexism

won't push those right-wingers over to Obama (since they are probably just as uncomfortable with a black man in the White House), it will suppress the McCain vote?

[treestar]

10. Yes, they just don't feel comfortable pulling the lever putting

a woman in that high place, so just don't pull it, or even pull it for the all male ticket - not wanting to tell the pollster or even their friends who know they are right wing nuts (where there are).

[blue neen]

12. Thought-provoking.

You may be on to something here.

[EffieBlack]

13. I sure hope so. :-)

[elkston]

14. Exactly. I agree with your post 100%.

I entertained this theory in some earlier posts that were trying to explain the Palin bounce.