New National Poll: OBAMA 45, MCCAIN 43.... kiss your convention bounce goodbye!

[darius15]

Today's Diageo/Hotline poll shows Obama-Biden leading McCain-Palin 45% to 43%. Yesterday, McCain-Palin were leading 45% to 44%.

One likely reason for the swing: men. In yesterday's poll, McCain was leading among men by 12 pts. Today, it's just 4 pts. Meanwhile, Obama's advantage among women has remained consistent over the last three polls ranging between 8 and 9 pts.

Today's survey, conducted 9/11-13 by FD, is the seventh daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 904 RV sample is 43%D, 34%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_w.html

[npincus]

1. interesting... that poll seems to slant toward Repubs generally.

[ClarkUSA]

5. Despite the fact that Democrats have a 10% edge on Republicans with national voter ID

This poll has the weighting breakdown right.

[Arugula Latte]

2. Nice.

I know polls are unreliable and all that, but I do like to see trendlines, and this is a good one.

[annabanana]

3. They won't talk about this poll, though...

Apparently some poll showed that Congressional repugs have "narrowed the gap" and could retake the house.:eyes:

[darius15]

9. Obviously, they're still wet dreaming about Palin

[dkf]

4. If I was a guy, I'd be terrified at the prospect that Palin could get us into WWIII and draft me

to fight against Russia.

She is CRAAAZZYY.

[Ikonoklast]

10. I got bad news for you

The next draft will be for both sexes.

[dkf]

18. You could be right.

Ironically, I can't rely on the number of neanderthal men who think women should be protected from this sort of thing.

It was the only thing I liked about those types.

[Abugface]

17. You can stop worrying about the draft.

A Palin war would be nuclear.:nuke:

[dkf]

19. Oh geez.

Thanks for the reassurance.

:sarcasm:

[donco6]

6. Thanks. I needed some good news.

And what the hell - I'm gonna do this just to piss off all the concern trolls:

:bounce:

[beac]

11. May I join you??

:bounce: :bounce:

:)

[donco6]

20. And here's a beer, but don't spill it . . .

:toast:

[beac]

21. Will do. - bounce - sip - bounce - sip - bounce - sip- ;) n/t

[Trajan]

7. Polls Polls Polls ....

Feel good ? .... Feel bad ?

How bout : Ignore ?

The value of these polls is limited, seeing they are nominally 45% for each ticket.

I PROMISE to not let today's polls change my mood ...

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Good news but

there's no chance McCain only leads among men by 4 points.

As long as we regain the lead in the averaging of national polls, we're looking up. The state polls will turn back in our direction about a week later. Amazing how things work. :sarcasm:

As soon as McCain's bounce completely fades, it's almost time for the debates, the new major variable.

[Breeze54]

12. a margin of error of +/- 3.3% means they're tied... even...

doesn't it? :shrug:

Get on the phones people!! Sign up at MoveOn to have a party and call supporters on Sept. 21st!!

[darius15]

14. Yup, but being in a statistical tie is better than being behind

[book_worm]

13. tracking polls are split: Hotline/ Research Obama; Ras/Gallup McCain

but overall the trend in each poll has been towards Obama of late. I do think that the bounce is over.

[bunkerbuster1]

15. Wouldn't it be hilarious if white men abandoned McCain in droves over Palin?

Hey, come on over, you sexist pigs--er, I mean, you wise-to-the-ways-of-the-worlders.

Water's fine.

[saltpoint]

16. Palin got poured like pop at the convention & the fizz sparkled for a brief time

and now the cup's been left out a while and the fizz is long over with.

And folks at the party now realize the taste alone just isn't going to cut it.

The fizz has left the building.

McCain got the modest benefit he wanted for a far shorter time than he needed.

[Phx_Dem]

22. And when they finish kissing their bounce goodbye,

they can kiss my ass.

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[abumbyanyothername]

23. Landslide coming. nt

[abumbyanyothername]

24. Landslide coming. nt