Why Many of You Are Nervous, and Why You Shouldn't Be

[phrigndumass]

It's easy to become tense with all the state and national polls coming out all at once showing not-so-good news for the Obama campaign. Here's something you may not be aware of.

In the days following the Democratic convention, there was a drought for state polls. We went six straight days without a single state being polled. Only 8 polls were released at the end of that week, all good news for Obama except for Alaska.

There was a "gentleman's agreement" (I hate that term) among pollsters that state polls conducted the week after the Democratic convention would be biased in Obama's favor, so they would wait until after both conventions. That agreement flew out the window right after the republican convention when Rasmussen and Fox News teamed up to poll five of the battleground states the day after the republican convention ended (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia).

So what we're seeing this week is the republican convention bounce. Every poll released this week needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It may seem bigger than the Democratic convention bounce, but that's because the polls were conducted immediately after the republican convention, while they waited six days after the Democratic convention to begin polling the states again. Hang in there! It'll get better for us. :D

To illustrate my point, here are the eight polls released the week after the Democratic convention, after the 6-day drought, followed further down by a list of 57 state polls released immediately after the republican convention, without waiting. You can tell by the results that the convention bounces were in effect for both sides.



Polls released after the Democratic convention (8):

Alaska Obama 33, McCain 57 (American Viewpoint, 9/2, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Alaska Obama 35, McCain 54 (Ivan Moore Research, 9/2, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 45 (Howey-Gauge, 8/30, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 55, McCain 40 (Time/CNN, 9/2, +/- 3.5, 828 RV)
Minnesota Obama 53, McCain 41 (Time/CNN, 9/2, +/- 3.5, 742 RV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 47, Barr 4 (Democracy Corps, 8/26, +/- 3.0, 852 LV)
North Dakota Obama 43, McCain 40 (United Transportation Union, 8/27, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 45 (Time/CNN, 9/2, +/- 3.5, 685 RV)



Polls released after the republican convention (57):

Alabama Obama 35, McCain 55 (AEA/Capital Survey, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Alaska Obama 33, McCain 64 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 1078 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 501 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 48, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 50 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 3.1, 968 LV)
Florida Obama 43, McCain 50 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1032 LV)
Florida Obama 42, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 511 LV)
Georgia Obama 39, McCain 52 (Strategic Vision, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 38, McCain 56 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 506 LV)
Idaho Obama 29, McCain 68 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 52, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maryland Obama 52, McCain 38 (Gonzales Research, 9/5, +/- 3.5, 833 LV)
Michigan Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 2.9, 1147 LV)
Michigan Obama 45, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 966 RV)
Michigan Obama 44, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Mississippi Obama 37, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 940 RV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Montana Obama 42, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 518 LV)
Nevada Obama 46, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.5, 899 RV)
New Jersey Obama 47, McCain 41 (Farleigh Dickinson University, 9/7, +/- 3.3, 872 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist Poll, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 584 LV)
New Mexico Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 49 (Garin Hart Yang, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 605 LV)
North Carolina Obama 38, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 9/8, +/- 3.8, 671 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 48, Barr 4 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 47 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 600 RV)
North Carolina Obama 38, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 41, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 51, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 2.7, 1367 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (University of Cincinnati, 9/10, +/- 3.5, 775 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32, McCain 65 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 652 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32, McCain 63 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 46, McCain 39, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Hoffman Research, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1001 LV)
South Dakota Obama 37, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 24, McCain 62 (Dan Jones & Associates, 9/10, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 717 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 920 RV)
Washington Obama 46, McCain 38 (Elway Poll, 9/7, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia Obama 39, McCain 44 (Blankenship Enterprises, 9/7, +/- 4.9, 432 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 46, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Wyoming Obama 39, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)

[quiet.american]

1. Wow. Thanks. nt

[phrigndumass]

6. yw :)

:hi:

[LooseWilly]

2. kick

[livetohike]

3. You are amazing phrigndumass

Thank you for this! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. yw :)

Salve for the battle wounds :hi:

[Muttocracy]

4. I thought it was weird there weren't more state polls - thanks for this! nt

[phrigndumass]

9. Me too ... the pollsters didn't wait in previous election cycles, this year was different

:hi:

[Muttocracy]

14. Some of the "averages" or whatever on realclearpolitics go back to July data! nt

[KathieG]

5. Cool...thanks for posting this!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

10. yw :)

:hi:

[madmax]

8. Be nervous!!

It ain't over til the fat lady sings or counts the votes. Take nothing for granted. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

11. If nerves move you to act, then use the force, Luke! :)

Time to get bizzay. The real race begins now. :hi:

[nolabels]

25. Nah, they who hope to try and steal it should be nervous

There will be hell to pay either way x(

[childslibrarian]

12. Bless you

for this post.
Awesome

[phrigndumass]

13. Thanks :)

:hi:

[cliffordu]

15. Let's not allow your flawless logic to innerfear with the panic stampede, M'kay??

As usual, excellent work.

[phrigndumass]

16. Love the play on words, lol

Stampedes are good for clearing brush, but hair-on-fire works just as well. :hi:

[cliffordu]

18. And the French Singe is SOO stylish!!

(The French Singe being a real hairstlying technique out of the 60's.....)

[kayell]

17. k&r

[bettyellen]

19. pollsters inexplicably changed the sampling to a much increased % of Republicans also

they upped the prportion of Republicans polled by 5-10 % compared to polls taken late July and August ... and have no clear explaination why.

[phrigndumass]

21. True, but there is a reason why they do this ...

They look at the history of past presidential election cycles and see that republicans almost always perform better in September than Democrats, and use that piece of data to adjust their samples. When they rely too heavily on this historic data, the results are always skewed.

We can visualize this on a graph like the one below. Most of the significant changes occur very near the day when the month changes. July and August are usually very good months for Democrats historically, and that is used to boost our numbers during the summer. Kerry's 2004 data is shown on the orange-yellow line. Notice the difference between 6/30 and 9/1.

:hi:

[bettyellen]

36. it's interesting because they cited anticipating a bounce for repubs but didn't say

they had done so for the dems were given the same treatment a week before.
the only quote explaining the shift is sampling, said well there is a +/= margin of rror anyway- like they didn;t even try to rationalize it.
sneaky shit pretending the shift was measured from apples to apples, you know?

[Forkboy]

20. The Repubs even got a bounce after the ugliness that was their '96 Convention.

There's been nothing surprising about this jump in the polls. What's cool is you explaining the lack of polls after the DNC, and why there was so many right after the RNC. That helps put it even better perspective for all of us.

Big K&R! :kick:

[phrigndumass]

24. Not surprising, and very predictable, yes :)

Thanks! :hi:

[JeffR]

22. An enthusiastic K & R!

:kick:

[potone]

23. You are probably right, but for the love of God I still don't get it!

The Republican convention was a disaster--even the delegates seemed to know that. There was simply no comparison with the Democratic convention. Our convention was historic, moving and inspiring. I was in tears at some of the speeches, and I thought that I was past being able to feel that way again. Obama's wonderful speech came at the end of a series of great speeches. The Republicans' speeches were just one train wreck after another, not to mention the awkward fact of the hurricane and the memories it evoked of Katrina. This is why so many of us are scared. There should be no contest in this election.:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[phrigndumass]

26. I wonder how many conservatives bothered to watch our convention

Probably a minimal amount. They didn't take the opportunity to be inspired by Obama (yet). The republican convention pushed all the right buttons for them: Fear, 9/11, God, guns, terrorists, etc., mostly fear of the unknown (which is the definition of conservative). These folks were most likely going to vote republican anyway, but many remained undecided until their convention reminded them why: Fear.

It's a good thing there are more of us than there are of them.

:hi:

[gratefultobelib]

27. I'm still nervous but I appreciate all you do. It actually makes me teary-eyed to read your words!

[phrigndumass]

28. This post was for you :)

When I read your reply in THE MATH thread, it made me realize that others may be feeling the same way.

:hug: :hi:

[brazos121200]

29. There definitely was a lack of polls coming out after the

Democratic convention, and an enormous number after the repub convention. I just thought it was due to the Labor day holiday or something, but I wouldn't put it past the MSM to have a nefarious motive at all. But this is September 14th, many days after the end of the repub convention, and I haven't seen any leveling off of McPalin's rise in the polls state by state. I think this is more than a post convention bounce for the repubs, I think it is a very real shift, although relatively slight, in national public opinion concerning Obama vs McPalin. And a slight shift in a very close election like this one is can be fatal. When, oh when, will the Democratic strategists learn from past mistakes and the lessons of history, and leave the high horse of the positive campaign and engage the repubs blow for blow, lie for lie?

[bleever]

30. Thank you for offering this concise summary

as a supplement to your more exhaustive data presentation post.

I think it more than doubles your audience, which is good as we watch McCain peak, and ebb away until election day.

[freespirit5]

31. I feel better now

*sigh*

[amborin]

32. better to be nervous

than over-confident and naive

i don't like the fact that nevada is red right now

it used to be swing at the minimum

we drove there and participated in GOTV in '04, and then Nevada was close

of course I guess more fundies may have moved there in the meantime

but i still don't like it

dems: we need to act as if we're 10 down and fight harder!

[TheDoorbellRang]

33. Thanks, phrigndumass!

I am eternally grateful for your math threads! :hi:

[grantcart]

34. excellent point - I'll put the noose away for now

[phrigndumass]

40. Save the noose, you might need it when the Chargers go 6-10 this year

:evilgrin:

[Major Hogwash]

35. Wow, my state sucketh.

McCain leads Obama by 39 points in Idaho?!
I don't think so.
That Rasmussen poll is already 5 days old.
And there are no yard signs for McCain here at all.
Or McCain bumper stickers.
So, I don't get that.

It's hard for me to believe that Montana was swayed by the stupid RNC convention, too.
I don't believe that will stay that way for very long.
Maybe they were bedazzled with Palin at first blush, but the more they find out about her, I don't think Montanans will like what they hear about her.
Same for North Dakota, I think that is a temporary bump in the polls, too.

[Cha]

37. You're just a math powerhouse,

phrigndumass! Thanks:bounce:

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

38. K&R

[Coexist]

39. cool thanks.

[Willo]

41. Thanks so much phrig

It's one thing to know or suspect that something is fishy with the poll numbers, but when your numbers look like their's, well...
that's downright scary.

Thanks for explaining the truth behind the numbers.

It's much easier to unspin stories, but when was the last time the MSM had a guest who explained the numbers?

I hate being screwed with and this is one area where I can't catch them at it without help. We need to get you on the air.

Or, better yet, can you do (or create) weekly Youtube segments? Seriously?

[phrigndumass]

43. I have the tools to create a Youtube segment, but I lack the time, lol

Thanks for saying that, though :blush:

Maybe in mid to late October I'll give that a one-time shot, and post a link on DU.

:hi:

[a kennedy]

42. "I love ya man" and boy did I need this info......

:hug: :woohoo: :applause: