Poll shows Obama's lead in NY at 5 points

[oberliner]

THE POLL: The Siena Research Institute, presidential race in New York of likely voters.

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 46 percent, John McCain 41 percent.

OF INTEREST: The lead is down from 18 points in June, when Obama led 51-33 percent over McCain in a Siena poll. New York, home of Obama's main primary oppenent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, is solidly Democratic, with 5.5 million registered Democrats and 2.9 million registered Republicans. The state has 31 electoral votes.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jr11lu2a_ODsnVHDuv080L-RtvsAD9376UDG0

[BklynChick]

1. no way, this is bullshit.

[oberliner]

6. Here are more details from Siena

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322

[Ediacara]

71. No indication of their weighting....

So I'm a little suspicious of this result....

[Curtland1015]

2. Wow, really? That's WAY too low!

What the hell New Yorkers!?

[Labors of Hercules]

3. Are you fricking NUTS??

Give me a fucking break. :eyes:

[featherman]

4. Hahahahaha... thanks for the laugh... we needed it this morning

[NorthwestNut]

5. I smell...

BULLSHIT x(

[catgirl]

10. Freep shit?

[caledesi]

31. I smell pizza! nt

[oberliner]

37. For posting a poll?

Wow - that is just nuts.

It's a poll - it has information.

Or perhaps it's just an inaccurate poll.

Perhaps a DUer can shed light on Siena and where they are coming from.

Perhaps a DUer can post another poll that shows what an outlier this one is.

Perhaps NYers will work harder to get out the vote.

That would be useful.

[AZ Criminal JD]

73. On DU you are only supposed to report polls that show Obama is ahead

Even if you report polls showing Obama is ahead by a small margin that is a no-no. Most people like to live in fantasy instead of realism. That is why they are called losers.

[Cha]

92. And, you're still bitter from the primaries.

It oozes outta every post regarding our candidate, Obama. Yay Obama WON!

[AZ Criminal JD]

95. No, not bitter. Just do a search of any thread with a poll

The ones showing Obama ahead are praised for their accuracy and the ones showing he is behind are denounced for being "outliers", "they don't poll young people", "they over sample Republicans", etc., etc. Even though they are the same polling companies which showed him ahead in other polls. LOL. But go ahead and live in a fantasy world as you post from your mother's basement.

[LeftishBrit]

38. I don't

I have known Oberliner for a long time on DU, and know that he is very liberal and a strong Obama supporter. He of all people wouldn't be inventing 'Freep shit'.

I hope that the poll is a blip or unreliable.

[CK_John]

7. NY and NJ are in play. Many of those dem's were hardhats for Nixon. n/t

[Teaser]

21. WRONG. FAIL.

.

[alcibiades_mystery]

28. You are so monumentally and epically wrong

that it is useless to respond to you further.

Hardhats that voted for Nixon. Jesus, what is this? Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure?

I'm bookmarking this thread, and posting your comment to any other thread we meet on where you seek to appear reasonable and informed. It will be quite telling for people trying to evaluate your credibility.

[pnwmom]

33. Just so you know, that kind of

inter-thread stalking is against the rules.

:shrug:

[alcibiades_mystery]

47. Who said anything about stalking?

If I meet up with CK-John in another thread, and we get into a discussion there, there's no rule against listing his public statements as an argument against his credibility. I said nothing about either seeking out CK John or engaging him in every thread he posts in, the two conditions that constitute "stalking" in my mind. If, however, we get into a discussion, his public statements in other threads are certainly fair game, and go directly to whether his posts have any credibility whatsoever.

[pnwmom]

55. This is what sounds like stalking to me:

"I'm bookmarking this thread, and posting your comment to any other thread we meet on where you seek to appear reasonable and informed."

From the rules:

Do not "stalk" another member from one discussion thread to another. Do not follow someone into another thread to try to continue a disagreement you had elsewhere. . . . you are not permitted to post repeated reminders about another person's mistakes.

[alcibiades_mystery]

58. Ah well

When I said "Any thread we meet in," I meant any thread we have a discussion in. Sorry you misinterpreted that.

cheers.

[paulk]

79. NY had a Republican governor from '95 to '06

I don't think Obama is in danger here, but the upstate vote could make it closer than your limited imagination provides...

[alcibiades_mystery]

80. For your information

I grew up in New York City, and I've lived all over Upstate New York, including four years in Binghamton, two years in Albany, and a year in a very red, very small, and very rural town west of Albany that you wouldn't even know the name of. I'm well familiar with the demographics and voting patterns in all of New York State, thanks very much.

It's not going to be close. Even Upstate New York is nowhere near as conservative as it has been in the past. Indeed, I think Obama would win by 4-5% in Upstate alone (which is, by the way, what I think this silly little poll from Siena College - an institution I've visited many times - reflects).

[lapislzi]

52. W.T.F.

Are you even FROM NY? I'm on the ground in a red county, and I can assure you that there is solid support for Obama here even among Republicans. Only the overt racists (yes, there are some) are holding out.

Putnam won't be a blowout for Obama, but there is a reason why neither candidate is bothering to advertise here...it's because it's a done deal for Obama.

[amborin]

59. and

reagan

[The_Counsel]

68. What? Are You Serious?

McCain ain't goin' nowhere in New York. Even McCain knows this.

Any appearance he makes here is usually by invitation and geared for a national audience. He wouldn't even DREAM of having a typical stump rally here. If he does, he'd better wake up and apologize.

Take away Greater New York, Buffalo and Rochester and New York is largely conservative farm land...

...and McCain'll STILL lose it by at least 8% on Election Day.

Sheesh ... if you'd have said he had a chance in New Jersey or Pennsylvania I'd have believed you, no questions asked. But NEW YORK? I'll have what you and whoever did that Sienna poll are having. It's been HOURS since I last got good and ripped... :evilgrin:

[SuperTrouper]

8. LOL!! New York will never go with McStalin and ImPalin...

This poll is elephant shit...

[catgirl]

9. So you like McCain?

Nice post. LOL.

[oberliner]

13. It's a poll

Here are all the questions and responses from the Siena site:

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322

[oviedodem]

11. First 626 is small, second WHERE was it because I would suspect it was North of Westchester that

area is VERY Red and some of it is rural "like" I have a hard time believing that the millions of people in the 5 boroughs would equal 5%

[Captain Hilts]

12. Obama's having trouble with some demographic groups. nt

[CreekDog]

15. more like some demographic groups are having trouble with him

namely those groups that hold him to a higher standard than they do McCain.

[Captain Hilts]

24. You have to understand other people have different priorities than we have.

It's up to him to sell himself to them, not the other way around.

Obama has lost ground on the "understands the problems of people like you" numbers. We have to get that back. Beats the shit out of me why lower income folks even consider voting Republican, but they've been doing that a long time. Reagan told Iowa 'tough shit' when there was an agricultural crisis and then in '84 they turned out to vote for him instead of the guy from Minnesota.

LOVE your Space Ghost avatar.

[CreekDog]

39. like some of my relatives who voted for Hillary, but don't like Obama because he is Muslim?

in those cases, and they are too common are not Obama's fault. these are people that won't be reached by a different message from Obama --they are just being knuckleheads, likely fueled by racism and religious bigotry and primarily IGNORANCE.

yes, Obama should run with a more populist message, but when the numbers in New York are weaker than they are in Oregon and California (when Dems typically do much better in NY than in either CA or OR), let's face it, the message isn't the problem and we KNOW the northeast is loaded with voters with racial prejudice. how many Democrats in Philadelphia voted for fairly unknown Republican Sam Katz against the very reasonable John Street? Was John Street's message that much worse than Ed Rendell's that he barely won the first time? Come on. We know the score there and it applies elsewhere for Obama. As far as fixing that Obama has worked harder to change that dynamic and been more effective against it than anyone else thus far --but he can't just change his message and poof people stop being bigoted.

[elkston]

56. Exactly. Everyone needs a wake-up call: Obama is black. Everything will be a bit harder (eom)

[ErinBerin84]

14. lol...sure thing, Siena

remember that weird ass NY poll months ago that showed a McCain/Condi ticket beating Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama? Not buying it, folks.

[cali]

16. one poll. I'd have to see several others with similar results before

I arrived at the conclusion that there was any validity to it. That's why I didn't post this. In fact, the only reason I can think anyone would post this, is to add to the near hysteria on DU. I'm not into contributing to that kind of shit.

[oberliner]

22. How about to share information?

Not trying to add to any kind of hysteria.

Siena's been tracking NY for a while. They are used on the EV.com site.

Maybe this will encourage NYers to get out the vote!

[adamuu]

91. pollster.com all polls from NY

http://www.pollster.com/polls/ny/08-ny-pres-ge-mvo.php



This was a poll of LV... a poll by the same institution filtering for Registered Voters rather than Likely Voters resulted in 47-39 Obama. A lot of people stay home because this state is so Blue, why bother?

I'll go put out some signs and stickers and encourage people to vote.

[Upton]

17. It's something to be concerned about

many of the blue states are tightening, including my state of WA.

[Teaser]

18. WRONG. FAIL.

.

[Nite Owl]

19. Siena leans so far right

they are falling over.

[oberliner]

25. Qunnipiac has Obama ahead by 21 in early August

Check out this quote:

"In presidential politics, color New York State blue and throw away the crayons. Sen. Barack Obama's overseas trip didn't help him in other states where Quinnipiac University polls, but he moved up here," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1199

[Upton]

26. That was before Palin and the RNC

since then things have changed, at least for the moment.

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Those polls coming out of Siena are ridiculous

Obama will win NY by 20% AT LEAST.

It's a laughable poll result.

[oberliner]

23. Has anyone else been polling NY?

Looking for other data from other polling sources.

[CK_John]

30. Obama will not win by more than 5 points in any state. n/t

[ErinBerin84]

34. any state? How much do you want to bet?

[alcibiades_mystery]

63. He doesn't want to bet...he wants to demoralize

Hasn't been right since the day Hillary stepped out of the race.

Loopy shit.

[BumRushDaShow]

41. He won his Senate seat in Illinois 70% - 27%, a 43% blowout. n/t

[AZ Criminal JD]

74. Against a person who is a nut and didn't even live in the state.

Even the Republicans laughed at that joke.

[MadBadger]

42. You are such a fucking downer...and monumentally wrong as well.

[Bleacher Creature]

45. CA, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, OR, RI and WA -- at a minimum.

And at the end of the day, he'll probably win MI, WI, MN and NM by at least 5%.

[alcibiades_mystery]

62. ROFL

Man, you're still at it. I've never seen somebody so devastated and embittered by a primary loss.

Bookmarking.

[racaulk]

85. LMAO!!!

:rofl:

[NorthwestNut]

27. Ok, here's why I'm not concerned:

[calico1]

29. Where were they polling? Buffalo?

Syracuse?

NY is not going for McCain.

[pnwmom]

32. This is a poll of "likely voters" -- a sample that discounts new and

irregular voters.

I think Obama's real numbers will be significantly higher because he is working on attracting the very voters that these polls underestimate.

[oberliner]

35. Agreed

Obama has quite a large number of "unlikely voters"

[timeoutofjoint]

60. You most likely are right.

[pnwmom]

86. Welcome to DU, timeoutofjoint! n/t

[timeoutofjoint]

87. Thanks for the welcome.

[amborin]

61. and

cellphone users, too, right?


instead of going into denial, we simply need to work a hell of a lot harder

[berni_mccoy]

36. That's laughable.

[Bleacher Creature]

40. Awesome!! Maybe McCain will start spending some money advertising in NY.

He's not winning the state by any stretch of the imagination, but if this crackpot poll gets him to spend money in the most expensive media market in the country, I'll take the bait.

[ps1074]

43. Internals show Obama winning the Dem vote by 66-21 only

That is the reason the poll is close

The good news is Obama is winning the black vote by 90% to 2% and the latino vote by 64% to 22%.

I think they are using the 2004 turnout model with only 13% black and 9% latino voter. I guess the black vote will be at least 3,4% higher and the latino vote will be a couple of % higher as well...

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[knixphan]

46. ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. You Have A Cool Website

http://www.mytrailerpark.com/

[dennis4868]

50. nice try Mr. McCain....

please go back to campaigning and talking about how wonderfull the economy is....

[slackmaster]

48. A 5-point win on Election Day would be a strong win. Even a .005% lead would be a win.

What's the problem here? I see the result as good news.

:shrug:

[AZ Criminal JD]

75. Are you serious?

If Obama won NY by 5% it would be mean McCain would have 350+ electoral votes nationwide.

[slackmaster]

78. How so?

Please show your work.

[AZ Criminal JD]

81. You are not my teacher

So, no, I'm not going to show my work. I have been involved in national campaigns since 1964 and the percentage a candidate wins in particular states translates into electoral margins nationally. Go back in election history and look at margins in NY for the Democratic candidate and then look at the national electoral vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. Any Poll Has A Confidence Level Of 95%

That means there is a one in twenty chance the results are outside the margin of error...

[Democat]

53. Another reason for Obama to brutally destroy McCain and Palin

Destroy them every day between now and the election. Advertising, speeches, mail, talking points - everything they've got they need to use to destroy McCain and Palin.

[Arugula Latte]

54. Yeah-no.

[LosinIt]

57. OK, you've got to understand NY to get this poll.

There is so much more to NY state than NYC, Albany, Utica, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. Most of the state is rural. The area known as Northern NY is some of the most undeveloped, and hence most beautiful,land in the country.

A lot of the people that live in rural areas are under-informed. They don't get cable, and guess who is on the radio and accessible from any area in the afternoon? No one has ever explained to them that Rush is full of shit. They hardly ever read the newspaper, except to cut out the coupons. If they did they would find the editorial slant to be so far right it's a wonder they haven't fallen off of the world yet.

Because of this I would believe that this poll is correct. I am convinced that some of the reasons are racially motivated. I grew up in a small town in Jefferson County and there was literally one black adult and one black child that I knew when we were growning up. I think that racial thing is not borne of hatred as much as it is of the unknown.

[amborin]

66. agreed, and all of that is what makes the poll

both plausible and very worrisome

combine it with polls showing nevada as red; in '04 it was in play

[mvd]

64. In these likely voter polls, they are skewing towards Repukes

This one likely has more manipulation than usual. In August they had it only at 8 points (which the article fails to say,) so more polls are needed before this has a shred of credibility.

[Barack_America]

70. .

Keep spreading the word about "likely voter" polls. Someday they'll get it.

:hug:

[budkin]

65. Ok, now I KNOW the polls are BULLSHIT!

This is like saying Utah is +5 McCain. Total horseshit.

[Hawaii Hiker]

67. I think it's bull shit, Sienna has had it closer than most other outlets

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
New York 47% 39% Aug 11 Aug 14 Siena Coll.
New York 52% 32% Aug 04 Aug 04 Rasmussen
New York 57% 36% Jul 31 Aug 04 Quinnipiac U.
New York 44% 26% Jul 17 Jul 29 Siena Coll.
New York 50% 37% Jul 07 Jul 10 Siena Coll.
New York 60% 29% Jun 30 Jun 30 Rasmussen
New York 57% 37% Jun 25 Jun 27 SurveyUSA
New York 51% 32% Jun 06 Jun 11 New York Times
New York 51% 33% Jun 09 Jun 11 Siena Coll.
New York 50% 36% Jun 03 Jun 08 Quinnipiac U.
New York 52% 33% May 28 May 28 Rasmussen
New York 48% 38% May 16 May 18 SurveyUSA
New York 48% 38% May 16 May 17 SurveyUSA
New York 49% 38% May 12 May 14 Siena Coll.
New York 52% 35% May 01 May 01 Rasmussen
New York 45% 40% Apr 13 Apr 16 Siena Coll.
New York 47% 39% Apr 14 Apr 15 Quinnipiac U.
New York 52% 43% Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
New York 46% 48% Apr 03 Apr 08 Marist Coll.
New York 49% 38% Mar 16 Mar 18 Quinnipiac U.
New York 52% 44% Mar 14 Mar 16 SurveyUSA
New York 51% 38% Mar 11 Mar 11 Rasmussen
New York 52% 38% Feb 26 Feb 28 SurveyUSA
New York 57% 36% Feb 15 Feb 17 SurveyUSA
New York 47% 40% Feb 11 Feb 14 Siena Coll.
New York 49% 43% Jan 20 Jan 21 SurveyUSA
New York 44% 42% Jan 14 Jan 17 Siena Coll.
New York 58% 41% Nov 02 2004 Election 2004

from www.electoral-vote.com

[book_worm]

69. So Obama is leading today by 4 in VA (SUSA) and 12 in Iowa (DM REG) and only 5 in NY? bullshit

and you can stuff your "internals".

[Ediacara]

72. Exactly my reaction

New York and Virginia are polling the same?

[Hard Leftt]

76. I read the whole thread

What wasn't mentioned was the Hillary factor. Hillary and Bill BASHED THE CRAP out of Obama and Hillary's strongest supporters are in New York, PUMAS and other Hillary fanatics are willing to sacrifice the country in 2008 to get her at the top of the ticket in 2012, because in 2016 Hillary may be too old for the job. Her last best chance at the White House is 2012. No way McCain wins NY, but to just suggest that the poll is total BS is ignoring the facts. Because of Hillary this state will be closer than it has been in a long time. That being said, I don't think Obama should spend any money or resources in the state, if he has to DEFEND NY, it's a bad, bad, sign. I would also bet a lot of Hillary voters will TELL pollsters that they are voting for McCain out of spite and in the privacy of the voting booth will vote Obama.

[Curtland1015]

77. Couple things to remember!

1. This poll was taken between September 8th-10th... when McCain was riding high on the RNC/Palin buzz.

2. Hillary is very popular in NY state. The bitter Hillary supporters were still smarting. Now that Hillary is out campaigning for Obama, that number likely to move.

3. Who knows which areas of NY this poll was taken in?

[vaberella]

82. As a New Yorker, that's bull. Even Gray's Papaya supports Obama. Oh wait...

Is this including upstate?! We have Klan upstate New York. In the city where everyone is congested he's the win.

[uponit7771]

83. "....Conducted Sept. 8-10 by telephone with 626 likely New York voters..."

WTF!??!!

Why are they doing these with sub 1000 sample rates?!~?!?!

WTF!?!?

[Hippo_Tron]

84. Good, McSame will now be encouraged blow $10 million on ads in New York/New Jersey

Both of which he will lose by at least 10 points.

[anonymous171]

88. All we need to do is show everyone how far right and how out of touch McPalin are.

Pretty easy to do.

[HughMoran]

89. Lots of bigots & Hillary supporters

I'm not sure why this is so unbelievable to people. The Dems (only getting 66% in poll?) will come home on election day if he's doing well, no need to worry.

[HughMoran]

90. Lots of bigots & Hillary supporters

I'm not sure why this is so unbelievable to people. The Dems (only getting 66% in poll?) will come home on election day if he's doing well, no need to worry.

[darius15]

93. Must be party disunity

:eyes:

Honestly, If Obama is tied\barely behind in national polls, he won't be ahead by just 5 in NY. Jesus!

[lolamio]

94. As a New Yorker (Upstate), I don't completely agree with the results, but...

I do want my friends and neighbors to take note of it and feel just a little bit worried. I know more than one person who voted for Nader in 2000 and 2004. It didn't matter then, but it matters now. I am going to make sure they know how close the polls are showing the race in NYS. Even if it's an outlier, we can't got too comfy here. I am only mildly worried about the poll, but do find it important in a Get Out the Vote sense.