Gallup admits: it only releases likely voter results when they favor McCain!

[kpete]

On Friday, Gallup published this report discussing the differences between registered and likely voters. Perhaps unintentionally, Frank Newport, the head of Gallup, made a huge admission that bears directly on the September 8th likely voter poll:

Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters.

In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:

1. At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.

2. Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.

3. Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.

4. In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.

more at:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/15/74531/5933/788/599244

[Blue_Roses]

1. So bottom line: their lying. No surprise here

:eyes:

[DangerDave921]

10. motive??

What is their motive to lie? Don't they gain respectability by being accurate?

Why would they want to intentionally lie when the bedrock of their business is trying to predict things accurately?

[Captain Hilts]

2. "Registered voters" is NEVER better than 'likely' voters. Here's why.

There are a couple of ways to determine who is 'likely' to vote. One is to ask the degree of likelihood that they will vote in November. That's simple. Or, you can ask if they voted two years ago or in the last presidential election.

Someone who did not vote in the last cycle is less likely to vote in the current cycle than someone who did vote in the last cycle. That's why those numbers are usually better. They skew Republican a bit because Republicans have a higher turnout rate than Democrats have.

Gallup is saying that they really only report likely voters if there is a significant difference between that and the "registered" voters. They note the two were pretty even until last week.

Not really biased, actually. They publish ALL numbers. They're just not very good and don't balance their samples for partisanship well, but they're consistent in how they do it.

[LynneSin]

12. I think the likely voters is bullshit this year and here's why

This year we have a candidate that is inspiring people to vote for the first time in ages. I live in the city and everywhere I go I see signs of OBAMAMANIA with his picture in store windows, his signs hanging everywhere and stores selling t-shirts with air-brush pictures of Obama's likeness.

Obama is inspiring more people to get out and vote this election, moreso than Kerry did back in 2004

[FLyellowdog]

3. Yes, they're lying.

[BlueIdaho]

4. Email these bottom feeders

Tell them you will NEVER trust one of their polls again since they have now admitted their republican bias.

Don't just sit there - do something.

edit typo

[Barack_America]

5. I don't recall seeing Gallup release a "likely voter" poll that was favorable to Obama.

Even remotely.

I think it is HIGHLY suspect to release polls showing certain results, but not others. Did we ever see the polls from the "occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters"? I certainly don't recall seeing them.

[intheflow]

6. Just ANOTHER reason to not trust the polls. n/t

[berni_mccoy]

7. K&R

[TexasObserver]

8. Gallup is nothing but another brand name servant of global corps.

They lend their name to the global interests that support the GOP in all things. They use the LV spin when they want to game a poll for a client like USA Today, which has a notoriously Republican readership.

[wowimthere]

9. Fraud! When you merge with media you commit fraud.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

11. The right wing are working together to make the polls close so they can steal it

it's easier to steal if the polls are close