Why are the polls so close in NY, Minn, and Washington State?

[dennis4868]

These are 3 states we should not have to even think about losing for s second. What's going on here? I cannot imagine Obama losing in NY but I never thought I would see any poll in NY so close.

[cliffordu]

1. Here ya go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7073295

[dennis4868]

3. Thanks but...

the polls taken in the 3 states I mentioned were not conducted by Gallup.

[cliffordu]

29. Then use the google and find the fucking answer yourself.

[uponit7771]

32. lol....chill out....

[lapislzi]

23. Everybody chill the fuck out.

NY is NOT in play. Period. End of story. Move on, folks. Nothing to see here.

We love us some Hillary here, even in the reddest of red counties--and there are several. We know she can get more done for the state and the nation with a Democrat in the White House. And let's not leave out Chuck, either. Our senators deliver for NYers, and we will return the favor.

Why do you think neither candidate is advertising here? Why waste money on a done deal?

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. because we're gonna LOOOOOOOOSE

Happy now?

What do you wanna hear/ We're going to lose NY?

Come on, now.

If we lose any of those states, it's done, so you might as well not even bother thinking about them. This is just bullshit concern nonsense at this point. Let the people in Minnesota worry about Minnesota. We need to worry about swing states.

[dennis4868]

6. I am not so worried....

like I said hell will freeze over the day that NY goes red....I just don't understand why it is so close...that's all.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. It's not...the Siena poll is bullshit

Minnesota will go +5-8 for Obama. Washington will go +7=9 for Obama.

[DangerDave921]

4. The PALIN POD PEOPLE!

This phenomena should fade soon.

A fresh face can only stay fresh so long.

[billyoc]

5. A lot of New Yorkers vote 3rd party because it's such a safe state.

[still_one]

17. No offense to New Yorkers, but that kind of thinking will cause us to lose /nt

[billyoc]

19. No offense taken. I guess you're going to lose then, because that's the way it is here.

[still_one]

28. I certainly hope not /nt

[goldcanyonaz]

7. Palin.

[Upton]

8. Here in WA state it's Palin

[Peacetrain]

9. I was warned last week, that the polls were going to show

closer than reality because of a palin roll that solidified the base. So it makes some sense. But the Minnesota poll, not sure how that happened.

There is a move to suppress and depress the new voters, with bubbagate etc, and that might explain some..but most of all, democrats are not participating in these phone polls. As much of a pain in the butt they are, we need to participate on the land lines

[romulusnr]

16. cell vs land

I'd like to think that the landline vs cellphone trend is affecting these polls. While polls don't necessarily avoid cell phones I wonder how much of the call list is cell #s vs land #s and how that compares to the general population... I know plenty of people have ditched landlines in favor of going cell only. My guess is those people tend to be urban and in turn tend to be dem.

But I don't really know how that affects the numbers. I can't believe that 45% of Americans want more Republican policies... more war, more corporate and upper-class handouts, more insurance premiums, more unemployment, more gas prices.

[demokatgurrl]

26. I'm not entirely buying that

I get lots of calls on my cell phone.

MN I am sure is from the repug convention and will swing back. NY and WA I can't figure out but I also can't understand how polls can ever be accurate. So maybe I'm too mathematically challenged to answer the question.

[amborin]

25. the cell phones

again?

like on '04?

[SuperTrouper]

10. Because we are gonna lose. I think Obama should just give his concession speech

and close all his offices and ground game in all 50 states :sarcasm:

[redstate_democrat]

11. Around this time in 2004,

Bush was beating Kerry in PENNSYLVANIA.

Bush was leading Kerry by 11 points in national polls. We know Bush didn't even win that election, let alone beat Kerry by 11 points. Polls don't mean anything.

[formernaderite]

12. NY will stay blue

even if the repub team makes some gains. Wash state and Minnesota should be more of a concern...but we haven't had any debates yet..so let's all chill out.

[Teaser]

14. Every 4 years some half assed poll comes out of New York gets people worked up

why do you continue to fall for it?

[redstate_democrat]

21. Exactly, if you look at the internals in that poll,. you can tell it is a crock of shit.

McCain has higher unfavorables in NY than Obama. Biden kicks ass in NY. Patterson is popular in NY.

But McCain is within 5 points?

Yeah right.

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322

[mvd]

15. The NY poll is not believable.

It might be a little closer due to Hillary not being chosen as VP, but no way is it 5 points.

MN could be an outlier from the convention being there, and maybe Palin plays well in eastern WA. We will win all three.

[Sebastian Doyle]

35. Eastern Washington is about as red state as red can get.

Thank God most of the population lives on the West side. And while Washington has a female governor and 2 senators, there's no way in Hell that Moosealini is getting votes there "just because she's a woman".

Maybe in Moses Lake, but damn sure not in Seattle.

[kwolf68]

18. Going by stickers on cars

I would say Virginia is a lock for McCain. I see far more McCain stickers than Obama stickers and Im in the "liberal" Northern Virginia. Once you get into DC Obama stickers are more numerous, but Nova is where I was interested. Kerry stickers/signs in 2004 far FAR outnumbered what I'm seeing from Obama stickers/signs.

I don't get it to be honest, but that's what I see right now.

Im still waiting for the convention bounce for McCain to go away, but it hasn't. Palin will REMAIN a 'fresh face' because thats how they will keep her, out of sight, out of mind until its time for the main circus attraction.

The McCain campaign is devious, they lie like shit, but they will be tough to beat.

[mvd]

20. The convention bounce IS down in the national polls

I suspect some of the state polls will follow.

Hope someone has better news in VA. Sorry to hear that report.

[amborin]

27. you have it

right

they are devious and will be tough to beat

why is nevada red, when it was in play in '04

why is washington state trending red?

etc....

[shadowknows69]

22. A lot of NY is going with touch screen machines for the first time this election

Just sayin. Not this time but the tracks are being lain perhaps.

[ps1074]

24. Palin

The reason is Palin.

[book_worm]

30. So Dennis, why is Obama doing so well in IA? and why is he ahead in VA in a new poll out today?

[dennis4868]

31. Because people in VA and IA...

are smart :-)

Listen, I think in the end of the day Obama wins NY, Wash, and Minn...I just don't understand why it would be some damn close right now.

[mvd]

34. I refuse to believe the NY poll

as stated, there's always a weird NY poll. The others will be wrong, but I can believe it was tightening.

[KingFlorez]

33. Democrats aren't going to lose any of those states

Polls are not always accurate and these seem to be very inaccurate.

[AZBlue]

36. Why are you believing the polls?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

37. Because of a horrible little thing called "statstics."

In a week or two there'll be a one-off out-lier showing a relatively tight race in California and all the Chicken Littles will freak out then too. Happens every time.

[paulk]

38. they are states with large rural conservative populations

it's the demographic that Obama failed to win over in the primaries and the same is holding true for the GE.

-----

I think we will win those three states, but it will be close in Minn and maybe WA. NY - 7 or 8 point win.

What worries me is Ohio - where that demographic can decide the election...

[Overseas]

39. Many polls question equal numbers of Rs, Ds and Is. in their "likely voters" pool.

Even though there are millions more registered Democrats than Republicans.

They still interview a pool of people with 30% of each group.

[cemaphonic]

40. a few things for WA

1) Palin is a perfect fit for the rural WA conservatives - especially since they have far less of the "woman's place is in the home" mindset that other conservative regions do. (they ran their own Crazy Church Lady for Gov in '96.) They were never going to vote for Obama, but they weren't really thrilled with McCain either. Now they are on board.

2) Palin is superficially a good fit for suburban swing voters. Outdoorsy, down-to-earth mom who just happens to have a high-powered political career is great marketing for places like Bellevue, and they like the small govt, low taxes, anti-waste talk she's been talking. Fortunately, they also tend to pay attention to the news, and aren't rigid ideologists, so once the "ooh, shiny" wears off, they should recognize that her record really doesn't support her image. Plus they are suspicious of fundie culture warriors.

3) The economy hasn't been as hammered as in other parts of the country (that huge explosion of trade with China? Much of it goes through Seattle and Tacoma. And WA actually has a trade *surplus* with China. Plus Eastern WA has benefited from wheat prices), so Obama's main theme of change has less resonance.

4) Reverse coattails from the governor's race. It's a rematch of the 2004 nailbiter, and it's being pitched as King County vs the rest of the state, so it's getting the rural vote pretty energized here.

Probably some noise from the national convention bounce in there too.
Still, the last time WA went R was Reagan-Mondale, and neither demographics, nor mood of the electorate support a right-trending trajectory, so I think Obama will carry it.

[chicagoexpat]

41. Because people aren't volunteering and doing the work of the

campaign like they should be

John McCain Lie Counter Web Page
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7075041&mesg_id=7075041