Prepare for a Raft of Spasmussen Polls in a Few Hours

[DarthDem]

As most of you know, Rasmussen is an evangelical nutjob, hardline rightwinger who has (somehow) managed to position himself as a reliable pollster, mostly by massaging his final results to match the actual presidential figures in 2004. His latest trick is to start dropping the weighting by party ID, which is traditionally in the Dems' favor, every week, and . . . surprise! The weighting has been going in favor of the Repukes since the GOP cinvention.

ScottyRazz's main job, apart from making money in the process, is to force the media narrative in favor of his Gooper clients. His tracking poll has been effectively neutralized by the R2000 and Hotline polls, but he's going to be spamming the battlegrounds on a regular basis with more of his 500-SS polls, including a wave tonight in PA, OH, MI, VA, and CO.

Expect to see Obama barely up in PA and MI, and down in the other three (to the best of my knowledge, Spasmussen has NEVER shown a lead for Obama in Ohio). Just remember to correct all results by Obama +2 in true battlegrounds, and by +3 in faux battlegrounds such as PA and MI.

And, if by some miracle Obama is shown to be leading in CO, VA, or OH in these "polls," then you know with certainty that it's actually true. :-)

[Pirate Smile]

1. There is a poll out today showing Obama up in Virginia.

[DarthDem]

3. I Know!

And in tonight's Spasmussen spam, Obama will almost certainly be down in VA. I wanted everyone to prepare in advance and not get down over the ridiculous results from Scotty.

I'm very encouraged by the SUSA poll in VA showing Obama 50-46, especially since the internals (low weighting of females, low weighting of Dems) were very favorable for McClown.

[flamingdem]

7. Links on the Rasmussen bejeezus connect would be good on this thread

and others to let DU etc. know about this ... yes, it's always cited here

[DarthDem]

10. Here You Go - - Link

Simple as Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen

I forgot to mention that Razz made his money helping to found ESPN, then of course selling it later to ABC. So in essence, this is a guy that doesn't need to work for a day in the rest of his life. That's telling, as are the evangelical connections. Why is a rightwing nut who doesn't need to work spending his time doing polling? Hmmmmmm.

[flamingdem]

2. So Rasmussen is an evangelical

Bejeebsus. They are taking over.

[DarthDem]

5. Ohhhhhhhh Yes

Basically, he's a nutjob who invested a lot of money doing polls, and he was clever, because he saw an opening due to the dearth of state by state polling at the presidential level. So, he set up a goofy outfit that robocalls 500 people in various states, no doubt secretly let key Rethuglicans and cons know that he was "available" for catering, private events, and narrative-pushing, and presto! With MSM complicity, he's now viewed as a reliable pollster. It's completely typical and not at all surprising, but even here at DU I see people cite his results and treat them as if they're legitimate. They're not.

[Overseas]

4. I knew Rasmussen skewed right, but didn't know he was a Fundamentalist, Christian Taliban type.

Thanks for the background.

I do think skewed polls are part of the Republican tools to discourage Democrats from voting.

[DarthDem]

6. They Absolutely Are

The skewed polls, that is - - you nailed it. With a house organ fundie nutjob out there sitting behind a robocalling phone bank operation, and somehow claiming to be a legit pollster, the Goopers can put their thumb on the scale and very effectively push the narrative that they want into the MSM. Right now, that narrative is that Obama is sinking. Which he rather clearly is not.

Oh, one other thing - - although he refuses to divulge the details, Nate Silver, the 538.com webmaster, has some sort of agreement with Rasmussen, even though Nate is a Democrat and Obama supporter. I think the net of this agreement is that the Razz polls are weighted more heavily in Nate's model than they should be. Clever move by Razz (same pattern - - forcing a desired partisan narrative rather than providing objective findings), rookie move by Nate. So you have to adjust 538's numbers, which are heavily dependent on Spasmussen, as well.

One piece of good news: as the election comes down to the wire, other organizations actually start polling the battlegrounds at the state level too, making Razzy's task of doing the Lord's work harder.

[flamingdem]

8. Nate Silver site has tilted and seems to favor McCain in the polls

lately

[DarthDem]

9. Two Reasons For That

(1) The Rasmussen Effect; and

(2) Nate's model was favoring Obama perhaps a bit too much after the "Berlin bounce" receded, and McClown appeared to have made up some ground before the DNC. Nate started taking a bunch of heat in the comments threads for being biased, which indicates that he was probably receiving hate e-mails by the truckload too, and I think he took too much of it to heart, and made McClone-friendly adjustments in his model.

Sad, but nothing new.

[flamingdem]

12. Bummer that he caved like that

we need a place to go for un-McCain friendly polls

[DarthDem]

14. Yeah

I actually think (or hope) that it was a little bit of judo by Nate, so that when Obama comes roaring back, he can credibly claim that his model was favoring McCain for a while.

The SUSA Virginia poll will help with Nate's model - - but, as noted, I expect the results of that poll to be muted by Razzoid's silly findings.

[flamingdem]

16. OK. I might forgive him

if it's a strategic defensive move

[backscatter712]

11. I've been to switching to Daily Kos' Research 2000 poll lately.

Kos publishes everything, including internals from that particular poll. Granted, that poll might be liberal biased, which would be as uninformative as Rasmussen, Gallup and all the other right-wing biased polls out there, but I suspect one of the bloggers there or elsewhere would be calling Kos out if that was happening by now.

Anyways, as of today, it shows Obama 48, McCain 45. B-)

[DarthDem]

13. It's Not Liberal-Biased

That's a RW talking point to tear down the poll. (Good for you for paying more attention to it, though - - exactly the right thing to do IMO.)

Kos is paying for the poll. He has no control over its results, and R2000 has a longstanding reputation (well, at least as long as Rasmussen, and the president of R2000 has been an analyst since the mid-80s) as a nopartisan pollster that far, far outdates any relationship with Kos.

Contrast this with what Scotty does. It's obvious which poll is closer to reality.

[backscatter712]

15. Like I said...

if it was liberal biased, it would have been called out.

That's why I tend to look at that poll more than Gallup or Rasmussen now.

Kos is putting his reputation on the line by putting this poll on his site, so I think he's motivated to keep the numbers honest.

[DarthDem]

17. Kos' Reputation

. . . is probably pretty safe no matter what. There's a ceiling on his appeal. :-)

Although I personally can't stand Kos, largely, but not entirely, due to his behavior during primary season, I don't think he would mess with the R2000 results, and I don't think R2000 would let him. It's a good poll.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. "Refusing to look through the telescope" is no cuter when Dems do it.

This game of ad hoc 'refutation' of polling (even in advance, as in this OP) is one of the most contemptible DU hobbies.

[DarthDem]

20. Then Don't Read It

I certainly don't want to get you down! :hi:

[Sebastian Doyle]

19. Saw Assmussen on TV yesterday talking shit.

Normally don't watch FAUX, but I was flipping through the dial aiming for MSNBC and overshot by one channel.....

He was throwing out right wing talking points about how "young voters suddenly aren't interested in Obama anymore" and repeating the fallacy of women lining up to support Moosealini. He's clearly a RePuke propagandist, and he's already been given his talking points for what to say if the 'Pukes steal this election.