Why Obama will do better than the polls...

[Drunken Irishman]

Enthusiasm.

Polls can never gage enthusiasm and the probability a voter actually votes. Yes, they can ask, but that won't tell the true story here. In close states, like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio, enthusiasm could be the difference maker in this election.

Even with the Palin pick, McCain still seriously lags in this department, much like Kerry did in 2004. Because of this, in close states, voter turnout is going to be key. In that regard, coupled with Obama's ground game, I expect it to boost his numbers by 2-5 more points than where the polls show him at on election day.

If Obama leads Colorado by 4 on November 3rd, he very well could win by 5 or 7 points.

If Obama is down 1 in Virginia on November 3rd, he very well could win by 3 or 4 points.

That's just how I see it, not scientific, but what I believe will be a big difference maker come November.

[NC_Nurse]

1. I sure hope you're right!

:hi:

[darius15]

2. I don't think it will be enough to swing CO by 9-11 percent.

but I do see your point. Obama supporters are out there donating, working hard, canvassing, working the phones, etc.

McCain supporters sit at home, drink excessive alcohol, watch FOX news and jerk off to Palin.

[Drunken Irishman]

To be fair, I did say 5-7 points.

[darius15]

5. Sorry, I misread the post!

I thought you wrote "if McCain was up by 4 in CO, then Obama would win by 5-7 points" which would be a 9-11 point swing.

I agree, it will be a 1-3 point swing, like you stated in the OP.

[Curtland1015]

3. You forgot a couple of things...

The Palin effect is wearing thinner and thinner, the Repug bounce is ending, the ecomony is sailng down the toilet and McCain is actually getting called out on his smears by the media.

[book_worm]

4. the hotline tracking poll showed that the enthusiasm edge is on Obama's side more than McCain's.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I think nearly every poll shows this.

And the media likes to ignore it, but it will be key and could be the difference in this election.

I mean, it was in 2004. How many possible Kerry voters sat home on election day? I'm guessing more than those Bush supporters who sat home.

[darius15]

7. Yeah, but although Obama supporters are more enthusiastic

the "enthusiasm gap" has closed a bit since Palin was picked and excited the right wing. Still, if we can get a lot of those new registered voters out to vote on election day, we're gonna win this thing baby!

[butterfly77]

8. They are trying to convince..

white voters that they are not voting for Obama...

[Essene]

9. There are multiple forces, both positive and negative

Positive forces

* Surveys focused on "likely voters" may be over-sampling GOP due to low response and high variation in proceeding months, suddenly a boost in republican interest impacting survey methods

* An anti-bradley effect among undecideds can account for obama polling below the dems overall, in that folks may like him and lean democrat but just not trust him due to his background. Many of these people may falsely express an unwillingness to vote Obama

* Voter turn-out and registration seems to favor the dems right now, unless the GOP garner some major national security or religious-related issue in the coming weeks. Even if the polls are even, Obama is likely to pull out more voters. Then again, Palin had more convention viewers than Obama.

* The evangelical support of Palin may diminish as folks come face to face with her pentecostal roots. Surveys this year also indicate that evangelicals are tired of being narrowly focused into 2-3 buzz issues. That said, 25% of evengelicals have voted Democrat in the past and who knows what might happen with Obama.


Negative forces

* The cultural backlash against Obama cannot be underestimated. I'm talking raw human identity politics in which a young, articulate, smart, well educated african-american is not only subconsciously questionable but a threat to a lot of people. Such people are the types who grasp onto the "muslim" types of smears and refuse to let go. They desperately want to be given & celebrate reasons to literally hate him.

* A bradley effect among some conservative democrats is possible. I dont know how significant, but i can see this being a factor among some sub-groups.

* Mccain is the underdog in an election he's not supposed to win. As november arises, if Obama isn't dramatically in the lead the perception game will not favor him. The EMOTIONAL impact of Obama even potentially losing is not to be underestimated. Turn-out is not assured for Obama in all places.

* Latinos and jews dont seem to be strongly leaning Obama which is a problem for him, esp at a time when the nativist stuff from the GOP side oughta give all minorities serious pause.

* Mccain and Palin are pulling in the money and pulling out all the stops. It's going to get nasty at the local levels.

[elkston]

10. One comment

"
* A bradley effect among some conservative democrats is possible. I dont know how significant, but i can see this being a factor among some sub-groups.
"


IMHO, Palin exposed a lot of these votes. Voting for a woman is a good cover for voting against the black guy. We know their numbers now, which is good.

[grace0418]

13. And then there's the election fraud. The Republicans will be doing everything they can

to rig the vote. Obama has to win by huge margins to overcome that. I think he will, but it will look like he just barely won.

[barack the house]

11. Exactly fight fight fight back any negativity and soldier on regardless.->

Take your personal story door to door how you survived a terrible administration and how it impacted your lives.

[DiamondG]

12. is it 2004 again? cuz i've heard this before. just sayin. nt