The polls are a matter of 'Likely Voters' vs. 'Registered Voters'

[LynneSin]

And the 'Likely Voters' will always favor republicans because republicans historically are very reliable when coming to the polls. But the democrats have a tendancy to need someone to put the proverbial 'fire in the belly' in order to get segments of our voters out.

Likely voters will NOT include the following:

* Newly registered voters, which if we did the polls based strictly on that along Obama would be way in the lead of McCain
* People who didn't vote in 2006. This is a tricky one because there are some election cycles that do not warrant high voter turn out. Only if the state had a hot race state-wide race in contention for the 2006 would the voter turnout be higher than usual. Some people tend to just not vote except for presidential elections and even then, sadly, some people just don't vote.

But Obama is energizing the base for the first time in 8 years -something I did not see with Al Gore or John Kerry. And let's face it, the base that Obama is energizing is a group of folks who more than likely would fall in the 'registered voters' list and not the 'likely voters'. And this group is the urban vote. As I've posted many times, I see an energy here in the city of Wilmington even BEFORE Joe Biden was the VP pick. Minorities are starting to feel they too have a candidate out there that understands and appeals to them. There is NOTHING that John McCain or Sarah Palin offers to this segment of voters but there is a seriously connect between them and Barack Obama because Barack was one of them and no, not that they're of the same skin color but because they come from the same simple beginnings - struggling to make ends meet.

This doesn't mean we should back off - it means that we should focus on those states that are borderline for 'likely voters' and push to ensure high voter turnouts. But Republicans also know this and they'll do all the dirty tricks in the books to keep this poplation from voting. THings like requiring photo ID, caging and limited voting machines to keep the lines long are just a few of the tricks they'll use. Hell one year in Pennsylvania the GOP tried to get the polling places moved 3 weeks before the general election citing obscure reasons that made these polling places 'invalid'.

[Eric J in MN]

1. The Star Tribune poll showing McCain and Obama tied in MN...

...started with 1,200 people, and only dropped 100 as not Likely Voters.

So Obama probably should visit Minnesota again, preferably a few cities in Minnesota.

[sandnsea]

2. Early in the year they use All Americans

That's part of the reason the polls shift.

They also shift because states like Oklahoma and Alabama and Utah are up 25-30 pts for McCain. They skew the national polls. They make the country look split, when the truth is that a handful of red states are just ignorantly red.